The Ministry of Economic Development and Digitalization (MEDD) estimates, in an optimistic scenario, a growth of 4.3% of the Gross Domestic Product in 2028. However, the realization of this forecast depends on one essential condition: the investment projects planned through the European Union’s Growth Plan, worth 1.9 billion euros, must be fully implemented and within the established deadlines, reports IPN.
According to an analytical note published by the institution, the plan includes 56 reforms and 153 measures focused on modernizing the economy, improving governance, and increasing long-term competitiveness.
The main “engine” of this scenario is the investment in fixed assets, which is expected to increase by over 74% within four years. Also, an increase in exports by 10.9% is predicted for the following year, and by 8.9% in 2028. Industrial production is also expected to rise – by 5.5%, and wages – by 7.9% by 2028.
In the context of other scenarios, a basic one and a moderate one, the GDP growth in 2028 is estimated at 2% and 3.6%, respectively.
The main risks identified by the authorities are related to the low level of labor productivity, considered the most significant constraint on economic development. This is exacerbated by demographic factors, such as population aging, migration of the working-age population, and declining birth rates.
Other risks involve a possible escalation of Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine. Besides the humanitarian pressures caused by potential new waves of refugees, an intensification of the conflict could affect regional stability, increase investment uncertainty, and decrease consumer confidence, specifies MDED.
According to the data published on Tuesday, September 30, by the National Bureau of Statistics, the Gross Domestic Product recorded an increase of 1.1% in the second quarter of this year, compared to the same period in 2024, reaching 82.3 billion lei. Compared to the previous quarter, the relevant ministry signals an increase of 1.6%, considered a sign of economic recovery.
