The International Monetary Fund (FMI) has published an update on the world economy with alarming forecasts for economic growth in the United States, China and other countries. The reason is the increased tariffs imposed by the US and, consequently, a possible escalation of the trade war, IPN reports.
“We are entering a new era, when the global economic system that has existed for the last 80 years is being restarted,” said International Monetary Fund chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, quoted by The Bell.
Compared to January, the new global economic growth forecast for this year’s global economy has fallen by half a percentage point, – 0.5 percentage points, to 2.8%, and for 2026 it is expected to fall by 0.3 percentage points to 3%. Inflation will not slow down as quickly as expected: the forecast for 2025 and 2026 has been raised by 0.1 percentage points to 4.3% and 3.6% respectively.
The US will be hardest hit due to “unprecedented uncertainty” as well as other trade tensions, analysts explain. The US GDP growth forecast for 2025 has been sharply reduced by 0.9 percentage points to 1.8%, and for 2026 – to 1.7%, down 0.4 percentage points. Inflation this year is expected to be 3%, up 1 percentage point from the January estimate. The risk of recession has increased from 25% to 37%.
For the eurozone, GDP growth was forecast at 0.8% in 2025 and 1.2% in 2026. Although a slowdown is expected across Europe, Spain could be an exception, Reuters reports. Spain’s GDP growth forecast has been raised to 2.5% in 2025 and growth in 2026 is expected to be 1.8%, as in January.
The IMF has lowered its estimate for developed countries to 1.4% in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026. For emerging markets to 3.7% in 2025 and 3.9% for 2026.
China’s GDP growth forecast has been cut to 4% for two years. And India’s growth is expected to be 6.2% in 2025 and 6.3% in 2026.
For the Russian Federation, this year’s forecast has been adjusted slightly upwards to 1.5%, but in the future it is expected to slow to 0.9%, less than previously forecast.
