Any potential ceasefire in Ukraine must be accompanied by robust security guarantees to prevent Russia from rebuilding its forces and resuming its offensive after some time. This statement was made by Romanian expert Iulian Chifu, president of the Center for Conflict Prevention and Early Warning, during a public debate titled “The Security of Europe and the Eastern Flank”, organized by the IPN news agency.

According to Iulian Chifu, the conflict could move towards a peace agreement backed by deterrence mechanisms and a foreign military presence intended to prevent further attacks. The expert argues that any peace agreement in Ukraine must include security guarantees similar to those enshrined in NATO’s Article 5, ensuring that any breach of the agreement triggers a concrete response.

“There is a desire to bring the fighting to an end and secure a ceasefire, but there must be guarantees. In other words, if we agree to a ceasefire, it cannot be to allow Russia to rebuild its strength and start all over again after some time. That is what the guarantees are for: to ensure this does not happen. Ukraine needs guarantees equivalent to NATO’s Article 5. Ukraine will never again sign up to Budapest-style guarantees that Russia can simply tear up”, explained Bucharest-based expert Iulian Chifu.

He explained that a potential peace agreement could involve deploying military forces on Ukrainian territory, monitoring the line of contact, and stationing U.S. military assets in neighboring countries. “The guarantees will include a military presence in Ukraine, rotating troop deployments in western Ukraine and along the line of contact, and arrangements for monitoring that line. U.S. military assets will also be stationed in Poland and Romania, with the capacity to intervene if Russia violates these rules”, said Iulian Chifu, president of the Conflict Prevention and Early Warning Center.

The expert also believes that Ukraine could find itself in an interim state in which large-scale fighting stops but the risk of war breaking out again remains. “The situation in Ukraine will be neither peace nor war. It will be somewhere in between. There will be a long-term peace agreement, with guarantees that the war will not resume. The downside of such arrangements is that Putin does not back down or make any concessions. Putin’s problem is that he is destroying his country’s economy in the long run”, Iulian Chifu stressed.

The public debate “The Security of Europe and Its Eastern Flank” is the 360th edition of the series “Developing Political Culture through Public Debate.” The IPN News Agency organizes this series with the support of Germany’s Hanns Seidel Foundation.