Independent candidate Alexandr Stoianoglo leads voting intentions in the race for governor of Gagauzia, followed by the Party of Socialists’ candidate, Fiodor Gagauz. According to an IMAS poll, 26.5% of respondents would vote for Stoianoglo if the election were held next Sunday, while Gagauz would receive 17.5% of the vote. The gap between the two has narrowed from 17.6 percentage points in the second wave of the poll to nine percentage points in the latest wave.
During a press conference at IPN, IMAS director Doru Petruti stated that these developments reflect the dynamics of the electoral campaign. According to him, Fiodor Gagauz is perceived as the most active candidate in the campaign, being mentioned by 29.5% of respondents. Furthermore, the voting intention in his favor increased after he announced his candidacy on behalf of the PSRM and launched an active campaign. “The effects of the campaign are visible. There have been significant changes over the course of four weeks”, noted Doru Petruti.
Voting intentions for Alexandr Stoianoglo have declined, from 32.4% in the first wave of the poll and 29.2% in the second to 26.5% in the latest. By contrast, support for Fiodor Gagauz has risen steadily, from 3.2% in the first wave to 11.6% in the second and 17.5% now.
Independent candidate Ivanna Koksal ranks third with 9.6%. Fellow independents Serghei Anastasov and Cornel Dudnic have 4.8% and 4.5% support, respectively. However, more than 27% of respondents have yet to decide whom to vote for.
Doru Petruti also highlighted the shift in voting intentions for Cornel Dudnic, whose support rose from 1.1% in the first round of polling to 5.1% in the second, before settling at 4.5% in the latest survey. “That is, in effect, a very rapid shift over a very short period”, the IMAS director noted.
In his view, a contest for third place could emerge, depending on how undecided voters ultimately cast their ballots. Asked who they thought would win the election, 25.2% of respondents named Stoianoglo and 13.7% named Gagauz. However, 45.1% were unable to identify a likely winner.
The survey also gauged voting intentions for elections to the People’s Assembly of Gagauzia, assuming they were held under a party-list system. In this scenario, the Party of Socialists (PSRM) would receive 36.5% of the vote. The Heart of Moldova Party would follow with 8.3%, ahead of the Party of Communists with 7.2%. The Greater Moldova Party would secure 2.9%, while the Party of Action and Solidarity would receive 2.6%. Nearly 30% of respondents did not indicate a preference, while 5.6% said they would not vote.
The IMAS poll was conducted in three stages: in September, with a sample of 818 people; in October, with 825 people; and in November, with 627 respondents from the Autonomous Territorial Unit of Gagauzia. The maximum margin of error is ±3.4% for the first two stages and ±3.9% for the November stage. The survey was commissioned by Public Media.
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