Alexandr Stoianoglo can win the runoff presidential elections only in case of a weak participation of the diaspora in the election and an active mobilization of the left-wing electorate in the Republic of Moldova. However, if the voter turnout of the Moldovans from the diaspora is the same as in the first round, the difference in votes that Maia Sandu will get from the diaspora can cover any shortage of votes in her favor on the territory of the Republic of Moldova. Thus, the votes of the diaspora can ensure Maia Sandu's victory, says the Barometer for October 2024, presented on Tuesday by the sociological company Date Inteligente.

In a news conference hosted by IPN, iData director general Mihai Bologan said that three scenarios were illustrated in the research and a number of hypotheses were formulated for each of them, including that the number of voters remains the same. Also, the percentages of undecided voters in the Republic of Moldova were analyzed, with about 40% for Maia Sandu and 60% for Stoianoglo. As a rule, the undecided voters have more confidence in left-wing politicians. Other hypotheses are that Maia Sandu will secure 25% of the votes from the left bank of the Nistru, and Alexandr Stoianoglo – 75%. At the same time, in the diaspora, Maia Sandu can gain 78% of the vote, and Alexandr Stoianoglo – 22%.

"Maia Sandu could win the election on the territory of the Republic of Moldova without the left bank of the Nistru, but this is unlikely. Normally, Alexandr Stoianoglo could win the election on the territory of the Republic of Moldova without the left bank of the Nistru and without the diaspora, and this scenario is quite likely or most likely. The votes from the diaspora in all the three scenarios can ensure Maia Sandu's victory," said Mihai Bologan.

According to one of the scenarios, Alexandr Stoianoglo needs an extra 35,500 votes to secure a victory. Even if the number of voters on the left bank of the Nistru increases, this will practically not influence Stoianoglo's total score.

"The vote from the diaspora matters the most. If the way in which they voted in the first round is repeated and the participation of the diaspora is the same as in the first round, the difference in votes that Maia Sandu can obtain from the diaspora will cover any shortage of votes in favor of her on the territory of the Republic of Moldova," said the iData director.

As for the voter turnout in the Republic of Moldova, it was quite high in the first round. Under these conditions, it is difficult to anticipate an increase in the turnout in the country because many of those who voted in the first round may not come to vote in the second round.

"Alexandr Stoianoglo can win only in case of a weak participation of the diaspora in the election and an active mobilization of the left-wing electorate in the Republic of Moldova, which is by reducing the deficit in the diaspora and by increasing the advantage on the territory of the Republic of Moldova, including on the left bank of the Nistru,” stated Mihai Bolocan.

"The outcome of the election depends on each of those who participate in the election, no matter how many scenarios the statisticians or sociologists formulate. Respectively, if you want to influence the election outcome in one way or another, the only thing you can do is to go and vote or not to go and vote and assume the consequences.”

The survey covered a sample of 1,005 people from 323 localities and was conducted during October 25-29. The maximum sampling error is 3%. The data collection methodology was mixed. 60% of the questionnaires were filled out by phone, 20% – online, and 20% – face-to-face.

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