After the aggressive invasion of Ukraine, it was semen that Russia’s military potential is much smaller than it was presumed. Russia does not have the necessary capacities to expand into the post-Soviet space, director of the Institute of Legal, Political and Sociological Research of the Moldova State University Victor Juc stated in a public debate staged by IPN News Agency.
According to the corresponding member of the Academy of Sciences of Moldova, the Kremlin now resorts to the besieged fortress theory according to which the unfriendly states attack the Russian world, especially the U.S., the Anglo-Saxon world, the EU and NATO.
Recently, the Moldovan authorities decided to assess the economic impact of the agreements with the CIS and to withdraw from the outdated or irrelevant agreements. According to Victor Juc, if the Republic of Moldova leaves the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), its relations primarily with Russia will be affected as the commercial relations with many of the CIS states are minimal.
“In the Republic of Moldova, the CIS is 90% associated with the Russian Federation. If the Republic of Moldova withdraws from the CIS, the relations with the Russian Federation will be impacted and less those with Turkmenistan or Kyrgyzstan as the relations with these countries are under 1%,” stated Victor Juc.
The academician noted that the notion “Russian world” is the most dangerous one. Russia arrogates to itself the right to protect the Russian speaking citizens from outside its territory so as to justify its territorial pretentions. As Moldova has Russian speaking citizens on its territory, it should show vigilance.
“At any moment, it can be invoked the violation of the rights of these citizens. For the Republic of Moldova, it is a signal that it should be very prudent. In Ukraine, the Russian Federation punishes primarily the Russophone and pro-Russian population, not those from Lvov or Lutsk, but those from Donetsk, Zaporozhe who are predominantly Ukrainian speakers, which is the Russians liberate the Russians from Russians,” stated Victor Juc.
He said that even if the military capacities of Russia should not be underestimated, these are much more modest than it was anticipated before the invasion of Ukraine. Russia becomes fully unattractive to an increasing number of states from the post-Soviet space.
“I think Russia does not have the potential to expand into the post-Soviet space. Not only countries like the Republic of Moldova, Ukraine and Georgia, but also states from Middle Asia already started to distance themselves from the Russian Federation,” stated the expert.
The public debate entitled “New Russian foreign policy concept and its impact on the Republic of Moldova” was the 279th installment of IPN’s project “Developing Political Culture through Public Debates” that is supported by the Hanns Seidel Foundation.
