„...The Autonomous Territorial Unit of Gagauzia is definitely not an Asian autocracy, but the “Turkmen” record set at the Bashkan elections is a signal of alarm that this is not only a success, but also appreciation of the dubious character of the local sociopolitical landscape...”
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The over 91% of the votes given to Irina Vlah in elections are too symbolical for us to speak only about a victory. At the same time, this is a sentence given to the Gagauz opposition and a specific feature with multiple question marks of the whole political system of the region. The reelected leader of the region is herself the beneficiary of the emergent circumstances. She took control of all the trump cards to ensure the re-formation of the power on the vertical and a political future for her team. Nevertheless, the lack of opponents and the lonely presence of Irina Vlah on the Olympus of the power in the autonomous unit pose particular risks both to the her and to the region.

“Turkmen” record

According to the data of the Central Election Commission of Gagauz-Yeri, Irina Vlah polled 91.27% of the vote in the June 30, 2019 Bashkan elections. In several days of the publication of the results, candidate Sergey Cimpoeș, who ranked second, filed an election outcome challenge to the Comrat Appeals Court. He said the voter turnout at the elections was insufficient and the elections are thus invalid. The move cannot yet change something as the final score will anyway favor Vlah even if the elections are rerun with a lower minimum voter turnout.

From the viewpoint of electoral statistics, the result of the reelected Bashkan is an unchallengeable one. Such a score wasn’t obtained even by Alexandr Lukashenko and Ilham Aliev. The “parents” of the Turkmen people Niyazov and Berdymuhamedov managed to achieve similar results among the personalities of the post-Soviet states.

The Autonomous Territorial Unit of Gagauzia is definitely not an Asian autocracy, but the “Turkmen” record set at the Bashkan elections is a signal of alarm that this is not only a success, but also appreciation of the dubious character of the local sociopolitical landscape. It is evident by far that the political class in Gagauzia faces an acute shortage of democratic competition and pluralism, which is something unique in the region.

The region always witnessed political passion that was sometimes inacceptable as form, but was incontestably positive for the political process and for the constitution of the political elite. The current governmental team itself is the result of the political confrontation of 2010 – 2015. Currently, the lack of powerful competition can mark the start of political stagnation with all the ensuing consequences – from abuses on the part of the power to the low quality of the taken decisions.

Vacancy of “opponent”

On the other hand, from the viewpoint of the legislation and formal rules, all the politicians in the ATU enjoy equal possibilities. The local opposition has financial resources or solid sponsors and can put up resistance to the propaganda of the power through the agency of own newspapers and the public TV channel so as to reveal the mistakes made by the power. In fact, they always did so. Nevertheless, if nine in ten participants in the elections preferred to show their support to the current power and rejected the alternative of the opponents, it means the problem resides first of all in the opponents.

After the Bashkan elections that revealed the resounding defeat of the team of Nicolae Dudoglo, who claimed to be the main Gagauz opponent until then, but who didn’t dare to take part in the electoral race, one can wonder if there is actually opposition to the current Bashkan at all. Sergey Cimpoeș, who won about 7% of the ballot on June 30, volens-nolens became the main opponent of the power. In the future, he could strengthen this image and extend his influence. For now, he has neither a team, nor the capacity to represent a positive alternative. That’s why the place of systemic opposition is probably vacant in Gagauzia. Until this is filled, Vlah should “satisfy herself” with the criticism of public activists, bloggers and anonymous persons using the Internet.

Struggle for new generations

As usual, the problem of absence of rivals to the current Bashkan is due to the lack of an institutionalized political struggle in the region. In other words, the absence of regional parties limit the possibility of cultivating the local police elite. It is a logical, but not decisive argument. As a matter of fact, five years ago, the local political groups achieved success in the somehow hidden form of public organizations and there was competition in the region at least apparently. Now this is absent.

The demographic factor deserves to be taken into account. The largest part of those who went to work abroad are active young people or people of medium age. This is the category of population that usually produces political leaders, but this is now poorly represented and gives way to the generations of children and pensioners or persons close to the retirement age.

With the inhabitants of an advanced age who represent the largest part of the voters, Vlah established rather efficient communication. She secured their loyalty and few would dare to put up opposition to her, especially if this is determined by two moments. Firstly, the demographic group that could generate potential leaders is the least represented. Secondly, the few young politicians who can appear in Gagauzia will face the very difficult political technology problem – to find a correct method of communication with the voters of an advanced age who have specific interests and static thinking.

However, the young part of Gagauz society hasn’t been yet conquered. In the last elections, Irina Vlah tried to secure the support of the new generations and staged a series of electoral activities for the purpose. In general, this target group wasn’t the main one in her electoral strategy. That’s why if real competition for voters could appear in Gagauzia, this could most probably develop on this segment. It is yet highly improbable that it will produce new aspirants to the post of Bashkan in the nearest future. Nevertheless, “new blood” can appear in the local political class.

Veaceslav Craciun