The attitude of the Transnistrian administration towards the Moldovan authorities, which is negative and precautious, hasn’t changed after Vadim Krasnoselski won the elections in the region. The same pro-international recognition and anti-reintegration rhetoric is maintained. Only the partial openness of Tiraspol to President Igor Dodon can be considered an exception and this is dictated by the loyalty expressed by the latter to Moscow. As a result, the region will keep the Eurasian integration process active and will ignore the European integration process on the right side of the Nistru, considers Donis Cenusa, associate expert of the independent think tank “Expert-Grup”.
“This would mean borrowing of the Russian legislation, which is considered a source of inspiration for the regulatory framework of the Eurasian Economic Union. This would also mean that the region, at Russia’s call, will tend to balance the foreign trade so as to depend less on the Community market. This will no way renounce such a valuable market given the economic interests of the conglomerate Sheriff and of the businesspeople of the region, who represent the Russian economic interests,” Dionis Cenusa stated for IPN.
The expert believes the Association Agreement/DCFTA will most probably not be implemented in the Transnistrian region. There is a high probability that Tiraspol will insist on the conservation of the status-quo, according to which the region exports to the EU under an asymmetric trade regime (Autonomous Trade Preferences), from which it has benefitted since 2008 together with the right side. That’s why the European Commission’s reaction to the refusal of the separatist administration to eliminate the import duties on EU goods and to implement technical regulations and quality and origin norms for the goods exported from the region to the EU is very important. It is also about the offering of access to the Moldovan authorities to Transnistrian exporting companies to see if these comply with the rules.
Dionis Cenusa said that owing to the electoral cycle in the Transnistrian region (elections for the Supreme Soviet and the executive of the separatist region 2015-2016), Brussels was rather on waiting positions. Now that the electoral processes are over, the discussions on the practical implementation of the technical agreement between Chisinau and Tiraspol, mediated by Brussels (in particular by Germany) and formally accepted by Moscow, will return in the forefront. It should be noted that the EU agreed to even offer assistance in implementing the accord by which the Transnistrian enterprises want to ensure access to the EU market. Nevertheless, there are few proofs showing that the region implements technical aspects of the DCFTA, even if a report on the first accomplishments should have been presented in October 2016.
In this difficult complex, the challenges in the implementation of the DCFTA in the region are related to the EU’s and Russia’s positions on the region, stated Dionis Cenusa. “On the one hand, the EU should introduce tariffs (for the less favored nation) because we are in 2017 already, while Tiraspol hasn’t yet given clear signals that it implements the technical agreement. The interdependence between the political-diplomatic attempts to reanimate the 5+2 talks and the efforts to implement the DCFTA in the region could be one of the reasons. Apparently, the revitalization of the Transnistrian settlement is used both by Tiraspol and by Russia to overshadow other subjects from the agenda, in particular the one concerning the implementation of the DCFTA. On the other hand, if the EU imposes tariffs on the imports from the region, this will affect the region’s incomes and economy that are already in a critical state. This thing could be counteracted by Russia,” stated the expert.
According to Dionis Cenusa, in this situation, things depend on the fact if Brussels wants another hot case in the relations with Russia, apart from Crimea and Donbas in Ukraine. Accusing the EU and Chisinau of imposing “a new economic blockade” on the region, Russia can initiate actions that are for now unpredictable. But most probably Chisinau will try to convince Brussels that the asymmetric commercial regime must be maintained for the region. Thus, the restoration of the economic relations with Russia is less probable and this will disfavor Dodon and the pro-Russian opposition before the legislative elections of 2018. 2017 is a crucial year for many European capitals. That’s why the worsening of the relations with Russia is avoided by most of the EU member states. In conclusion, Dionis Cenusa said there are more challenges than opportunities for the technical aspects of the DCFTA to be implemented in the region, Russia playing a decisive role in this regard.
