The parliamentary elections of 2018 are crucial for the geopolitical future of Moldova, expert in political sciences Dionis Cenusa says in an opinion article for IPN.
According to the politologist, these elections can end with a majority controlled by the Socialists or a fragile coalition consisting of pro-European forces (PAS, Platform “Dignity and Truth”, with or without the Democratic Party) or a new series of political crises and early elections. The switchover to the mixed-member electoral system promoted by the Democratic Party increases even more the uncertainty related to the post-2018 period.
Dionis Cenusa highlights three main possible scenarios of the development of Moldova’s relations with the EU and, respectively, with Russia. These derive from the Socialists’ big chances of taking over government after 2018.
According to the optimistic scenario, Moldova, with Igor Dodon as President and the Party of Socialists controlling the Government and Parliament, terminates the current Association Agreement/DCFTA and joins the Eurasian Economic Union, following the example of Armenia, which, even if it is a member of the Eurasian Union, negotiated and initialed a Comprehensive and Enhanced Partnership Agreement with the EU.
The moderated scenario envisions less radical changes in the Moldova-EU relationship. President Dodon and the Socialists develop the relationship with the Eurasian Union, but do not scrap the Association Agreement and the DCFTA owing to political pressure and possible mass protests inspired by the anti-Yanukovych Euromaidan of 2013-2014.
The negative scenario consists of the repeat by Igor Dodon of the actions of Vladimir Voronin, who, even if he agreed the Kozak Memorandum with the Russian side in 2013, refused to sign it. New sanctions on the part of Russia would follow in this case.
The politologist considers that Moldova has now minimized its dependence on the Russian market and, respectively, on the restrictive commercial policies of Russia, its exports migrating to more predictable and stable markets.
Dionis Cenusa considers the energy sector is the most vulnerable one. He enumerates the problems faced in the sector, such as the historical debts for natural gas that will exceed US$7 billion, the dominant position of Gazprom and slow building of interconnections with Romania.
Besides the “energy ban”, Russia can also target the Moldovan migrants or can destabilize the situation in Gagauzia and the Transnistrian region.
The politologist reiterates that by its actions, such as the change in the electoral system, the government does nothing but assist Russia in achieving its objectives in Moldova, alongside the Socialists and President Dodon.
