"The Socialist Party, as a member of the ruling coalition and a former beneficiary of the alliance with the başkan during the last parliamentary elections, as well as a more than likely beneficiary of the forthcoming local elections, can become Irina Vlah's political conduit for propelling the Gagauz agenda at the national level…"
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At the beginning of her second term as başkan, Irina Vlah has a strong position. She has succeeded in consolidating her positions in Gagauzia, she is likely to succeed in placing her team in leadership positions in the local governments and if her political allies do not sabotage her, she might manage to abandon the role of a mere extra in the central government.
The defeated opposition
On September 12, the People’s Assembly of Gagauz-Yeri (APG-Y) approved by a majority vote the new structure of the Regional Executive Committee, put forward by the Başkan Irina Vlah. According to the head of the autonomy, the average age of the members of the new team is 44 years. Out of 21 positions in the Executive Committee, 18 will be held by ethnic Gagauz, two by Moldovans and one by an ethnic Bulgarian. During campaign debates, the most attention was focused on former Ministry of Economy and Infrastructure Secretary of State, Anatolie Usatîi, who's candidacy was put forward by Irina Vlah and who ran for the position of senior başkan deputy. Before casting their vote, the autonomy’s lawmakers reminded him of his involvement with the Democrat Pavel Filip government and pointed out that according to local law, members of the executive committee must know the Gagauz language. Usatîi promised to fulfill the requirement within the course of a year. Vlah parried the criticism regarding Usatîi's involvement with the PDM by highlighting his technocratic competence and emphasizing that "his skills will be useful to the region".
The approval of the new executive committee and a series of recent events imposed changes upon the local opposition camp, more precisely, imposed the transformation of the opposition camp. Nicolai Dudoglo, formerly Irina Vlah’s main opponent, was sentenced to political death without the right to appeal, while his influence over APG-Y activity and, in general, in regional politics, was reduced to zero. His voter segment was taken over by various groups and politicians, such as the ex-candidate for the position of başkan, APG-Y legislator Serghei Cimpoeş and his colleague Ilia Uzun, by former APG-Y speaker Dmitrii Constantinov and by mayor of Vulcăneşti, Victor Petrioglu. For the time being, their only common ground is their common criticism of Irina Vlah, which makes it unlikely that they will consolidate.
The anti-başkan majority group in the People's Assembly, which was still able during the spring to block important initiatives for Vlah, is now defeated. While the başkan does not have a safe majority, she has a core group of loyal legislators and a group that is somewhat expected to support her. The situation suits the başkan, considering that, in all likelihood, she found the "key" to the most important legislator, the APG-Y speaker Vladimir Kîssa. This explains how the Vlah-PSRM candidates were sworn into office. The Socialists decided not to put forward their candidacy in Bugeac, Vladimir Kîssa's hometown, leaving his voter segment untouched.
The başkan and Socialist joint team
Coordination between Irina Vlah and PSRM was confirmed not only in the village of Bugeac, but also throughout the entire local elections campaign. The Socialists have already put forward their candidates for mayoral positions for most of the autonomous settlements and almost all of them are the başkan's followers or affiliates. They coordinate on many levels over the course of this electoral campaign.
A number of candidates, who run under PSRM's Star banner, are incumbent mayors and have every chance to be re-elected without any party support. Among them are the mayors of Comrat and Ceadâr-Lunga, Serghei Anastasov and Anatolie Topal. They play the role of PSRM promoters, which seems to be pragmatic and in accordance with the commitments between the party and Irina Vlah's camp.
In turn, by committing herself to promote the PSRM, Vlah will assure their victory, but will also take image risks due to the potential mistakes of the party and the potential; failed management of the future Socialist mayors. She may be willing to accept these sacrifices and to give up some of her authority for certain party bonuses. As evidence, the examples of promotion of Vlah affiliates to important functions can be pointed out. Among these promoted affiliates are the former First Deputy Vadim Ceban, appointed as "Moldovagaz" director, and former başkan Dmitry Croitor, put forward by the government as ambassador of Moldova to Turkey. Another path that would interest Vlah may involve guarantees from PSRM regarding her place in the top political tier after 2023.
However, this is a distant and unclear perspective and, from the point of view of current concerns, the başkan is currently seeking opportunities for Comrat to influence the national government in order to promote autonomy's interests.
New opportunities in the national government and the PSRM "resource"
One of the initiatives that the başkan could put forward is the establishment of a joint Task Group (TG) between the APG-Y and the national executive branch, similar to the Parliament and APG-Y joint Task Group. Previous TG experience has shown that MPs have been more successful in handling initiatives that fall within the remit of the government, while legislative initiatives were often blocked. It would be pointless for Irina Vlah to leave this activity to the lawmakers.
Another initiative could become the reorganization of the Development Agency, which until recently was run by Valeri Ianioglo, who was appointed by the Democrats. Beyond the political aspect, the existence of this structure in parallel with regional state bodies can be challenged due to overlapping with the bureaucratic structures with the same purpose of attracting capital investments. In the event of negotiations, the başkan could obtain either the dismantling of the Development Agency, while its functions and financing would be taken over by the executive, or she could obtain double subordination, to the executive and to the Ministry of Agriculture, Regional Development and Environment.
One of the başkan's purposes regarding the national executive branch would be the restoration of the Tax Service of Gagauzia, which was abolished as a territorial subdivision of the Ministry of Finance during the reorganization process of the executive power carried out by the PDM. The başkan might also aim to reestablish other local offices of decentralized services.
In the PDM government, Irina Vlah, as a Gagauz-Yeri başkan, played a minor role. Her opposition and refusal to vote had no bearing on the outcome. At the moment, Vlah already has a foot in corridor activities. At her disposal are both strictly pragmatic initiatives for the activity optimization of separate institutions, as well as political arguments. The Socialist Party, as a member of the ruling coalition and a former beneficiary of the alliance with the başkan during the last parliamentary elections, as well as a more than likely beneficiary of the forthcoming local elections, can become Irina Vlah's political conduit for propelling the Gagauz agenda at the national level.
Veaceslav Craciun
