Targeting inflation more important than targeting exchange rate
The criticism leveled against the National Bank of Moldova (NBM) that it favored pauperization by strengthening the national currency is too harsh, believes Ana Popa, head of the macroeconomic policy department at the Expert-Grup Center, quoted by Info-Prim Neo.
Ana Popa says that the current strengthening of the leu without a concurrent economic growth is not a positive phenomenon. However, the factors behind this strengthening should not be disregarded. They are associated with a 64 percent rise in remittances in the first four months of 2008 compared with the similar period last year. There is also a rise in the foreign direct investment ( about $450 million last year and $131 million in the first quarter of 2008, a 64 percent increase from the similar period last year).
Also on the increase are the financial and technical assistance offered to Moldova by the international financial organizations. For instance, in Q1 2008, grants and technical assistance amounted to $49 million, by 40 percent more than in January-March 2007. These factors put significant pressure on the exchange rate and as a result the Moldovan leu is getting stronger. In turn, the appreciation of the national currency lessens inflation-related pressures and helps the NBM attain its major goal to keep prices stable and target the inflation.
According to the expert, it is a known fact that this appreciation impacts heavily on the exporters. Moldovan exports become costlier and therefore less competitive, which widens the balance of trade gap. Yet, if the central bank targeted the exchange rate and not inflation, the negative effects would bear on the largest part of the population, which doesn't depend on the foreign currency inflows and the remittances, and also on the incomes that influence consumer price developments. For instance, in 2006, out of the total household incomes the share of remittances was 13.9 percent, and only 9 percent in the case of households deemed to be on the verge of poverty. But even the remittance receiving population benefits from cheaper imports, says Ana Popa, adding that the NBM is resolute in keeping prices stable, a fact which was recently proven by raising the key refi rates and the amounts of mandatory reserves.