“Admittedly Moldova hasn’t offered any pretext for being ‘liberated’. But we all understand that pretexts can be invented or fabricated. To deter an invasion, however, all it takes is to let the potential invader see for itself that our society and political class is determined not to give up our ideals of freedom and ambitions of European integration.”
How does the new pole of a multiplolar world look like?
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has aimed to usher the world into a “new era”, i.e. establish a new world order. This new order builds on an ideology developed by Vladimir Putin over the course of his nearly quarter-century rule of Russia. At its core, it makes the case for “restoring territorial unity to undo the terrible catastrophe of 1991”. This policy has a name, it’s called revanchism. And Putin’s ideologists recognize that Russia is prepared to pay a great price for restoring the so-called “Russian world”. This “new era” boils down to re-establishing the “pan-Russian nation”, composed of Russians, Belorussians and Ukrainians.
The second stage could include bringing the entire former USSR space back under Russia’s control. Not a joke. It’s the vision of Putin’s former adviser, who often anticipates the steps taken by the Kremlin. Recently, ahead of the anniversary of “the Brest-Litovsk disgrace”, Vladislav Surkov spoke about the imminence of rebuilding the Russian Empire. Moreover, according to Vladimir Putin, “the Russian world” encompasses Romania’s Lipovans and any other Russian speakers anywhere in the world, for that matter. The “new world order”’s map could look very strange indeed.
Today Russia’s war against Ukraine is condemned by almost three-fourths of the globe. The adoption of the UN General Assembly Resolution on March 2 showed us the current configuration of the Russian pole in its vision of a multipolar world, with Russia being in the company of Belarus, North Korea, Eritrea, Syria and Venezuela. This pole represents about 3% of the world’s population and 2% of the global economy. But the regimes in these countries, which are autocracies or outright dictatorships, are aggressive towards their own peoples and their neighbors. A prosperous future for the nations affiliated with this pole of the multipolar world is difficult to imagine.
Lost between the poles
As Ukraine fights fiercely for its freedom and against the plans of the Kremlin to “reverse the mistakes of history”, the Moldovan government and its political class act prudently, avoiding to disturb the Kremlin. In fact, Moldova does what it can in these circumstances, helping Ukrainian refugees and hoping to earn the moral right to benefit from a window of opportunity that would open if the Russian invasion fails. Such an outcome is very far from being around the corner, but it becomes increasingly evident that Russia’s incursion is not going according to plan. The invasion has demonstrated the unity of the Ukrainian nation, making it virtually impossible for Russia to establish a long-term control over this country, no matter how hard it tries.
In this context, Ukraine has been able to earn the goodwill of the European Union to apply for membership. Moldova and Georgia piggybacked onto the move, submitting their own formal requests for membership. To be clear. No one knows when, and if the EU will effectively grant those memberships. But one thing is certain – the EU’s neighborhood policy, which was announced in 2003 and formalized in 2004, has long become obsolete. EU neighbors in Eastern Europe haven’t formed the desired security belt along the bloc’s border. Instead, the ex-Soviet republics sandwiched between the EU and Russia, as well as those in South Caucasus, have become apples of discord.
Unsurprisingly, following the signing of their respective association agreements with the EU, following the November 2013 Vilnius Summit, the Eastern Partnership states faced pressure and sanctions from Russia. Ukraine has suffered the most. Crimea was taken from it, while externally engineered separatist conflicts flared up in the east. They were kept smoldering for eight years before being activated recently as a pretext for a full-out military aggression. In such circumstances, especially after the de facto incorporation of Belarus into the so-called Union State and Russia’s war against Ukraine, the EaP strategy is no longer valid.
Belarus has joined this war on Russia’s side. Its territory has been used for about 15% of the missile assaults on Ukraine. Two other EaP countries, Armenia and Azerbaijan, have also decided on their future courses. Armenia is now part of the Russia-centered Collective Security Treaty Organization. The gas- and oil-rich Azerbaijan feels protected and comfortable alongside Turkey under the “two states, one nation” concept. This is why, for security reasons among other considerations, a new strategy is needed to replace the EaP and lay out a clear and step-by-step roadmap towards EU membership for the three fresh applicants.
Conclusions
The advancement of this new world order idea by Russian President Vladimir Putin has destabilized international security for years to come. The package of sanctions of an unprecedented harshness imposed on Russia by the international community is meant to temper its revanchist spree. Russia’s quite modest economic potential and technological backwardness make it extremely vulnerable and thus dangerous. In such circumstances, it is of paramount importance for Moldova to decide without ambiguity which pole to choose, the European or the Russian one. Russia’s war against Ukraine doesn’t leave us any room for maneuver or intermediary moves.
If the Moldovan government, whether the current one or one that will replace it at some point, decides to paddle towards the Russian pole, it will have to accept that a majority of young, capable and ambitious citizens will choose to leave a country that has no future and will certainly slide towards an oligarchic, authoritarian or dictatorial regime, akin to those in Belarus and Russia. It cannot be different. The Romanian passport is available to most citizens.
With the war raging on in neighboring Ukraine, Moldovans should overcome their fear of a possible invasion here as well. Also, we must actively combat the barrage of propaganda and the fake news that we are being subjected to. Nothing out of the ordinary is needed, just common sense. Admittedly Moldova hasn’t offered any pretext for being “liberated”. But we all understand that pretexts can be invented or fabricated. To deter an invasion, however, all it takes is to let the potential invader see for itself that our society and political class is determined not to give up our ideals of freedom and ambitions of European integration.
Victor Pelin
See related articles:
- Common candidate, slightly independent... Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Prospects of battle of Pobeda bloc. Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Conduct of 2024 census. Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Presidential amnesia syndrome. Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Impact of setting of date of presidential election and constitutional referendum. Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Communist-Socialist gorillas against Victory. Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Ex-premier Vasile Tarlev’s fourth attempt to return to politics. Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Day of victory over fascism against the background of its reanimation. Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- About constitutional referendum. Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Manipulation by omission and shifting of emphasis. Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Thoughts on 15th anniversary of April 7-8, 2009 events... Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Referendum inflation. Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Thoughts generated by Moscow terrorist attack. Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Intrigue of Russia presidential election. Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Guțul eclipsed Vlah? Op-ed by Victor Pelin
- Why does Irina Vlah’s platform risk not enjoying support? Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- What is at stake in presidential election. Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Danger of fifth column and reaction of society. Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Consequences of Yalta Conference: liberators vs. occupiers. Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Sample of plagiarism and manipulation by omission. Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Who won the elections yet? Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- About author of transformation of utopia into antiutopia. Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- About state anti-Semitism... Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- About miracles and winter holidays... Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Longest war of Soviet imperialism. Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Origin of culture of denouncements and informers. Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Story of white bull is not most boring one... Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Choice of Bessarabians... Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Reanimation of propaganda reflexes. Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- About memorable dates and undelivered promises... Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Loss and reassertion of identity... Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- On brink of eternity... Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Interpretation of polls by politicians. Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Glorification of Soviet-Nazi victory. Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Choice imposed by two symbolic events. Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Many mobilized, few elected... Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Threats and intimidation on Independence Day. Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- The impossibility of communism with a human face. Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Second attempt to step into same river. Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Gagauz crisis – developer of moral decadence. Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Inauguration of governor of Dreamland... Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Carthage must be destroyed! Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Ace of spades and resuscitation of success story. Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Forcing doors open... Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Special civil military operation. Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- While waiting for Constitutional Court judgment... Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Electoral prelude... Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Dreamland of political adventurists... Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Habit cures habit? Op-Ed de Victor Pelin
- Ultima ratio. Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Fair of Communist-Socialist generosity. Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Without MIR, for peace between nations, against aggression... Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Silence kept by wedding party guests and deception of Shor’s victim... Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Echo of April 7 events… Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Justifying rhetoric for eventual Russian aggression. Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Exaggerated capacities of Maia Sandu... Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Igor Dodon’s premonitions and its effects. Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Communists make call for terror? Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- How long will we remain caught in the toils of falsehoods? Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Subversive actions – Russia relapses? Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Critics of Gavrilița Government... Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Apostles of war. Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Times of Natashas have come? Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Traditional values... Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Black swan, the last hope... Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Regime of Putin declared terrorist. Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Lost letters. Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- The European alternative of Mayor Ion Ceban. Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- When hounds growls, puppies also bark... Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Devastating potential of powerful Putinist ideas. Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- The crab, the frog and a pike... Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Europeanization of Gagauzia. Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Cooperation with NATO and complementation of 3C strategy. Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- About benefits of occupation... Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Geopolitical alternative, stake of opposition. Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Wormhole and end of Moldovan geopolitics... Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Half-truths more dangerous than lies... Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- 3D – Despair, Demagogy, Deja-vu – strategy. Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Natalia beating round the bush in Big House. Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Weak government challenged by discredited and confused opposition. Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- End of post-Soviet transition. Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Misanthrope atavism. Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- May! Labor! Peace? Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Spring fever and opium for people. Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- What purpose do opinion polls serve? Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Hybrid warfare of government and opposition. Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Invitation to aggression ... Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Maia Sandu and PAS – beneficiaries of special operation... Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Kaa and hypnotized monkeys. Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Russian or Arab spring? Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Crocodile will not pull back... Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- The powder keg. Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Like it or not, country will rebuild itself. Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Multipolar world after 15 years of pretensions... Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Socialists oscillating between three models. Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- What is permissible for Jupiter is not permissible for ... Op-Ed by VictorPelin
- Between hammer and anvil. Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- 2022, year of geopolitical crises. Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- “Congress of winners” or Parallels between Igor Dodon and Mahtama Gandhi. Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Enigma shrouded in mystery... Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Revolt of Ilan Șor’s company... Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Pension system and politicians’ speculations. Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- What is good and what is bad... Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- How to fight hatred and foolishness? Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Maia Sandu’s one year of presidency. Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Gerontocracy in action. Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- We do not surrender country to foreigners? Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- First electoral test for new government. Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Năstase, Filip, Dodon... Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Cases of Stoianoglo and Gațcan. Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Yellow and maroon bullshit. Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Charm of electronic voting. Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Moldova, Moldovans, Moldovan? Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Lustration. Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Waiting for good times... Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Similar steps in foreign policy... Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
-
- Stepping on rakes. Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Power and opposition... Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Vote of Transnistrians. Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Electoral confusions. Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Danger of disappearance of Moldova. Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Lack of discernment. Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Futuristic reflections. Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Electoral fibs. Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Voronin’s panegyric. Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Speculative geopolitics. Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Turns of political weathervanes. Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Assimilators and pretenders to Plahotniuc’s inheritance. Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Does Moldova have a future? Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Communists’ amnesia. Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Who divides society? Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- About electoral blocs. Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Joint effort of parties of the left... Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- About constitutional aberrations. Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Usurpations of usurped power… Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Danger of regional war... Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Bafflement of Socialists. Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Competition of Igor Dodon vs. Maia Sandu. Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Enigma of April 7, 2009 events. Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Zinaida Grechanyi complains to Council of Europe. Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Vaccination and political games. Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Why is Maia Sandu more dangerous than Vlad Plahotniuc? Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Institutional memory of Moldova’s presidential administration. Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Coalition of the brazen. Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Steps towards Union... Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Troublesome decree. Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Success of failure... Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Balance of accomplishments of Presidents elected by general vote... Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Orthodox Church in danger... Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- PSRM, QUO VADIS? Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Confrontation between Mentor and Tester. Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Russia confirms high quality of Moldovan wine. Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- “List of sins” of Maia Sandu. Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Maia Sandu’s “taburetka”. Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Delayed actions of Maia Sandu. Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Socialists’ departures and decline. Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Inevitability of snap elections. Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Boomerang. Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- In Moscow, after directives... Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Unfavorable inheritance. Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Danger of Igor Dodon’s opportunism. Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Preparations for snap elections. Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Electoral performance of unionists. Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Grimaces of neo-paganism. Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Socialists’ dilemma. Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- From defeat to defeat up to victory... Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- National consensus and division of society. Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Imperialist movement vs. NGOs. Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Paganism vs. Christian values. Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Renato Usatyi versus Igor Dodon. Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Ana Guțu and watchdogs. Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Splendor and misery... of propagandists. Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- About lackeys and sons of a bitch. Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Bifurcated candidates. Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- The discrepancy between words and deeds. Op-Ed byVictor Pelin
- Coincidence? I don’t think so! Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Moldovan political fauna, Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- It looks uglier in reality than from afar, Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- “Russian people’s present”, Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Independence Day. Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Commemoration of victims of totalitarian regimes. Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Vaccination and chipping of Moldovans. Pamphlet by Victor Pelin
- Balanced foreign policy. Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Solution: Annulment of presidential elections! Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- Beam in Maia’s eye… Op-Ed by Victor Pelin
- A new attack with gases, Op-Ed
- Renato Usatyi – President Dodon’s Furgal, Op-Ed
- While waiting for... Patriarch Kirill, Op-Ed
- President Dodon’s change of orientation, Op-Ed
- Where is the money, Ștefănică? Op-Ed