The situation of political crisis that was generated by the invalidation of the elections in Chisinau and was deepened by the freezing of the relations with the development partners can be overcome by two ways only – by the reform of the political factor, done from “up”, and by a revolution that would involve the masses from “down”. But both of the ways are unsafe. This is one of the conclusions reached by the participants in a political debate that was recently held at IPN.
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The “upper” reform is unsafe because not all the reforms produce results that would be felt by the people, while the reforms initiated by the government that calls itself “democratic” and “pro-European” since 2009 until now are a conclusive example. Who of the country’s citizens will now believe that the reforms that were somehow forced during the past two years by the PDM, which was an important component of the previous governments, will have another result?

Confidence declining to anti-rating

The first important reason of the unsafety of the “upper” reform derives from here. It is poorly supported by society and this happens mainly owing to the society’s very low level of confidence in state institutions and senior state officials. This distrust has been regally and during many year ascertained by almost all the sociological polls conducted by national and foreign authors. In particular cases, they speak even about anti-rating, which is a huge paradox if we take into account the massive, even unprecedented resources possessed and used by the current government to promote its image and actions. It is probably the case to ask ourselves why we should believe in the success of reforms with a bigger effect announced for the whole society if the current government cannot achieve its own objective of remedying its image, and its legitimacy in a way, with such resources?  

History knows cases when unpopular (illegitimate) authorities imposed unpopular reforms that in time produced good results for the people’s life. But the legality and effectiveness of the taken actions are the mandatory condition of this reform model as the good goals have never been achieved by bad, illegal, insincere reforms. The sad experience of the defunct USSR is only one of the multiple and tragic examples of mankind.  

Legality and effectiveness as criteria

Currently, the legality and effectiveness of the reforms done by the authorities are doubted by too many people in the Republic of Moldova for them not to generate doubt and concern. The newest examples include the invalidation of elections, the non-transparent way in which a part of the legal provisions known as the “fiscal amnesty” went through Parliament, the “citizenship by investment” mechanism and the way in which the electoral system was changed. Let’s admit that the government is partially or even fully right when it speaks in reply about the “political interests” of SOME of the political contenders who aim to take over. But this argument is not sufficiently convincing because this is the position of ALL the development partners without exception, who probably know more than they say and more than we, the citizens, know. The European Union, the United States and the International Monetary Fund considered it necessary to react swiftly to the adoption of fiscal legislation, as they reacted for several times and from different levels after the invalidation of elections.

So, the essence and fate of the “upper” reform are for now insufficiently credible in terms of legality and effectiveness and can imply an unjustifiably long period for its eventually good results to be felt by the citizens, and worse, the perpetuation of the situation with democratic deviations and international isolation.

Citizens predisposed to revolution “with legs”

The other, “down” way does not inspire more optimism as regards the real and swift overcoming of the current political crisis in particular and of the problems faced by the ordinary people in general. It seems that the citizens of the Republic of Moldova are not predisposed to a “revolution” as a method of solving life-related problems. The conclusions come also from the society’s reaction to the alarming signals given during the past few days by particular political opposition players and by representative of civil society concerning what they called legalization of illegalities that were committed earlier and is the final point of the banking fraud committed in the Republic of Moldova. A more democratically mature society could have reacted not only by a “flashmob meeting” that involved over 100 people who came together near the Parliament Buking, under the guidance of opposition parties, the next day after the adoption of the “fiscal amnesty”, at noon. Another society would have reacted massively, swiftly, from civic and self-preservation instincts even if it would have later turned out that the danger was false or exaggerated. The example of the citizens of Romania, for instance, in situations similar to ours does not yet cross the Prut.

Diminution of ability as reason for international isolation

It seems that the Moldovan citizens lost or never had confidence that the life in the own country can be improved, that the ruling politicians can be held accountable when they cross the red line, while the politicians from the opposition represent the real alternative. It seems that the Moldovan citizens build their own “revolution” rather “with the legs”, choosing the way of migration often to the detriment of the family and health. It seems that preventing the evasion by migration is the only method of making them devote attention to domestic affairs. In the context of the democratic deviations mentioned earlier by the development partners, their newer concern about the diminution of Moldova’s ability to fight money laundering could bring back into public focus the discussions about the withdrawal of the Moldovans’ right to move freely in Europe and other areas of advanced prosperity because the diminution of the ability to fight money laundering is closely connected with Moldova’s and Moldovans’ ability to fight terrorism financing and to deliver security at regional and international levels, which hasn’t been yet formulated publicly by the foreign partners.

Who benefits from revolutions

But not even this is the guarantee that the problems of Moldovan society will be overcome “from down” because, as it is known, geniuses prepare revolution, romantics make it and rascals benefit – enjoying the fruits. And innocent blood is often shed...

Does someone know other solutions to the current political crisis in the Republic of Moldova?

Valeriu Vasilică, IPN