33% of the respondents of a poll who are decided to vote on November 15 said they will vote for the Party of Action and Solidarity’s candidate for President Maia Sandu, while 31.1% said they will vote for independent candidate Igor Dodon. 15.6% haven’t decided who to vote for, while 20.3% refused to answer, shows a poll commissioned by the Institute for Public Policy (IPP) and WatchDog.MD Community to by CBS Research.
In a news conference at IPN, sociologist Vasile Cantarji, of CBS Research, said the poll was conducted by phone during November 3-7 and covered a sample of over 1,000 persons, except for voters from the Transnistrian region and those who are outside the country.
Asked if they intend to vote in the runoff, 83% of those polled said they will definitely vote, 4.1% are sure they will vote, while 4.2% said they will probably vote. Compared with the previous polls, the current survey reveals particular mobilization for the runoff. Also, the number of those who are absolutely sure they will vote is higher.
As to the voting option, Vasile Cantarji said that given the sampling error of ±3%, the position of candidates cannot be clear as the distance between them is very small. Taking into account the undecided voters and those who do not respond, Maia Sandu will have 51.5%, while Igor Dodon – 48.5%. “Given the margin of sampling error, the situation is again uncertain. It should be yet noted that those who said they will probably not vote or will probably vote will most probably not go to the polls. These are a segment of voters who are far from politics and do not have very clear options,” explained Vasile Cantarji.
IPP director Arcadie Barbăroșie said the difference between candidates is indeed very small and a conclusion as to who will win the runoff vote cannot be formulated. All the voters are urged to cast their ballots as this is very important. Even if there are many persons who do not know who to vote for, they should ponder over and vote, no matter who they decide to vote for.
Independent analyst Victor Ciobanu stated that the difference between opponents is in the limits of the sampling error. It also depends on the undecided voters and on the way in which candidates’ teams will work in the current campaign. An aspect that should be taken into account is the fact that the poll does not cover the Transnistrian voters and the diaspora that will definitely influence the results of this Sunday’s exercise.
Independent expert Ștefan Gligor said it should be noted that the poll does not reflect the option of the Transnistrian voters, the diaspora and eventual electoral violations, such as organized transportation and voter corruption. The difference between candidates is practically covered by the sampling error and this should make all the segments of voters mobilize and take an active part in the runoff,” he stated.
WatchDog.MD expert Valeriu Pașa said the poll also does not take into account the impact of the use of administrative resources. “This slight advantage of Maia Sandu can be easily beaten and it is very hard to estimate the impact of the administrative resources. It depends on the scale and intensity by which these will be used,” he noted.
The representatives of civil society plan to conduct an After Poll by phone in the November 15 runoff, similar to that carried out on November 1.
