If a presidential election was held tomorrow in the Republic of Moldova, 29.5% of the electors would vote for the PAS candidate Maia Sandu. The Our Party’s candidate Renato Usatyi would finish second with 13.3% of the poll, followed by the Party of Socialists’ candidate Alexandr Stoianoglo, with 11.6%. The other election contestants would gain less than 7%, shows the Public Opinion Barometer (October 2024) commissioned by the Institute for Public Policy to the sociological company iData.

In a news conference hosted by IPN, Institute for Public Policy executive director Arcadie Barbăroșie said that the respondents, except for those who would not vote or did not answer, were asked about the eventual runoff vote involving different candidates. Thus, if Maia Sandu competed against Alexandr Stoianiglo, the score would be 46% to 41%. Respectively, 13% do not know.

If Maia Sandu and Renato Usatyi dueled in the runoff, the score would be 38.6% to 35.6%. 15.4% of those polled would not vote, 7.3% do not know and 3.1% did not answer.

If Maia Sandu faced Irina Vlah, 40.2% would vote for the former, and 33.2% would vote for the latter. 11.8% of the respondents would not vote, 11.9% do not know and 2.9% did not answer.

If Maia Sandu competed against Ion Chicu, the score would be 40.7% to 30.1%. 15.1% would not vote, 11.1% do not know and 3% did not answer.

“We see that in the runoff, Maia Sandu wins anyway, according to the results of our poll. Of course, it should be clear that we did not question at all the diaspora and we do not know how the citizens who are abroad will vote. We also do not know how many citizens from the left bank of the Nistru will volte and how they will vote. We might also have some surprises here. But I believe that in the case of the diaspora, those who support Maia Sandu will primarily go and vote and will supplement the votes missing here, in the country,” stated Arcadie Barbăroșie.

iData executive director Mihai Bologan said that the study covered a sample of 1,100 respondents from all the territorial-administrative units, except for the Transnistrian region and for the Moldovan citizens living abroad. The sampling error does not exceed ±3%.

Note: IPN Agency offers the right of reply to persons who consider that they were affected by the articles produced based on the statements of the organizers of this press conference, including by facilitating the organization of another press conference in similar conditions.