IPN analysis: It is over one year until the elections for the Governor of Gagauzia, but the main favorites of the electoral race already appeared at the start. The choice of the residents of Gagauzia will this time be determined not by the potential of the candidates, but rather by foreign factors. What can influence the option of the Gagauz people and what tasks will have Chisinau to perform after the elections, regardless of their outcome?

Earlier start

In a congress held in Comrat last Saturday, the Public Movement “United Gagauzia” launched the primaries in order to choose a candidate for the ordinary elections for the Governor of Gagauzia. About one month earlier, the local field organization of the Democratic Party officially selected its candidate – the mayor of Comrat Nicolai Dudoglo. Another two politicians known in the region – Communist Irina Vlah and Liberal-Democrat Piotr Vlah – also made it clear that they want to run for the post of Governor.

It is yet unusual that the local political forces, by their acts, launched the election campaign more than one year before the elections. On the one hand, this is because of the great stakes of the future elections and the players’ wish to strengthen their positions beforehand. At the same time, the election results will be influenced by external factors more than earlier. Thus, in the period before the elections, the political teams of Gagauzia will make effort to attract the foreign circumstances on their side.

Candidates of parties against independents

The intensification of the work of the Moldovan parties in the region is the main foreign factor that for the first time will play an important role in the future elections for the Governor. Gagauzia is more or less closed for the influence of the national political parties. Even the candidate of the Communist Party, who scores record results in the region in the legislative elections, never managed since 2002 to go through to the second round of voting, always losing ground to the independent candidates. The independents polled most of the votes in the elections for the local bodies of power and for the election of deputies in the Peoples’ Assembly of Gagauzia.   

A sudden change in this respect happened in the elections for the Peoples’ Assembly of Gagauzia last year, when most of the elected deputies, even those who ran as independents, constituted factions of the PCRM, PDM and PLDM. Over the last few years, the Communists managed to strengthen their positions, while the parties of the ruling alliance for the first time reproduced bodies on the territory of Gagauzia. Given the created situation, we can expect that most of the applicants for the post of Governor will be the representatives of a certain Moldovan party. This will indisputably have an influence on the character of the electoral struggle and on the typical features of the reciprocal relations between the autonomous unit and the central authorities of Moldova, if a party candidate becomes Governor.

It should be noted that the excessive activism of the political organizations from Chisinau in southern Moldova may have an opposite effect. The local leaders who accepted to run under the auspices of a party for a number of reasons, besides political support, assumed the burden of the negative image of the new political teams that they joined. Losing the prestige in society, they can accept to represent a certain party for the sake of the public spirits, including the demonstrative radical positions. Even if this thing is justified from political viewpoint, the given politicians will abandon the party as soon as they are able to and will choose to be independent.

Russia is not indifferent

Another foreign factor that can considerably shape the spirits of the Gagauz voters is the support provided by Russia to one or another candidate. At first sight, the size of the Gagauz elections is not significant enough for Moscow to become involved in this process. However, given the possibilities of promoting certain interests in the context of the Moldovan-Russian relations, we cannot say that Russia will be indifferent to Gagauzia and its senior administration.  

Furthermore, Russia already participated indirectly in the elections for the Governor of Gagauzia in 2010. The then President of Russia Dmitry Medvedev, only several days before the second, decisive round of voting, issued a decree to confer a Diploma of Honor on the then Governor Mihail Formuzal, who ran for a second term in office, for his contribution to developing the Moldovan-Russian cultural relations. Surely, the image of Formuzal, who received the order from the head of the presidential administration Sergey Naryshkin, became the next days an important element in the candidate’s election campaign. We do not have reasons to exclude the possibility that the Kremlin will somehow support one of the candidates in the future elections.

With the eyes on Parliament

The third circumstance that can influence the outcome of the elections in Gagauzia is the result of the legislative elections in Moldova, which will take place not long before the Gagauz elections. A good result of the parties of the government coalition will enable the candidates of the PDM and PLDM to easier convince the voters that they will be able to establish pragmatic and advantageous relations between the region and the central power. Thus, the Communists’ victory will bring additional points to the PCRM’s candidate who will objectively have more possibilities of cooperating with Chisinau than other candidates with opposition spirit.

In search of a formula

The candidate promoted by one of the Moldovan parties or the one supported by Moscow may become the next Governor of Gagauzia. This way or another, no mater who will accomplish their plans as regards the election of the Governor of Gagauzia, the official Chisinau will have a rather difficult task – to build relations with the new leader of Gagauzia. It will have to look for a formula to cooperate with the region’s authorities so as to take into account the interests of the local community and to ensure Moldova’s sovereignty. The correct solution will represent an important indicator of the maturity of the Moldovan democracy.

Veaceslav Craciun, IPN