Oleg Serebrian: ‘4 out of 10 probability’ Transnistrian conflict might escalate

There is no desire among the negotiators in Tiraspol to see the Transnistrian region involved in the war, says Deputy Prime Minister for Reintegration Oleg Serebrian. According to him, the probability of new destabilization attempts in the region is high, but neither the people nor the de facto political leadership on the left bank of the Nistru want an escalation of the Ukraine war.

“We cannot say there is no threat at all. If you have a frozen conflict, it’s clear you have a problem. There is a probability of this conflict to escalate, at least in theory. On a scale of 1 to 10, the probability is 4. In discussions with the negotiating partners from Tiraspol, I haven’t noticed any desire to get involved in the conflict. To determine who is behind the provocations on the left bank of the Nistru, we insist that our OSCE colleagues have access to the files. This would be the first step in convincing us that the Transnistrian side wants to shed light on these attempts at destabilization. The OSCE participates in both formats of negotiations, they know the region and the internal issues very well. As long as there is this frozen conflict, the risk of further destabilization persists," Oleg Serebrian told a talk show on RTR Moldova.

At the same time, Oleg Serebrian says that the Transnistrian conflict should not be an obstacle to Moldova seeking EU candidate status. According to the official, although slowly, the reintegration of the Republic of Moldova is taking place.

“All the three countries that have applied to obtain candidate status have territorial conflicts. All conflicts are complicated, but we are at an advantage, even compared to Georgia. We have talks with Tiraspol, there hasn’t been a single shot for a very long time. At the societal level, there is some degree of reintegration. There is a latent reintegration of society, of economic processes, and after February 24 this reintegration has even intensified. The European Union has a moral obligation before Ukraine. And if Ukraine is granted this status because the country is at war, we should have this status because we are preserving peace”, said the Moldovan Deputy Prime Minister for Reintegration.


Two days ago, MEP Siegfried Mureșan announced that the European Parliament requested the granting of candidate status to Ukraine and the Republic of Moldova to the European Council on June 23-24. Mureșan said that the chairs of the political groups in the European Parliament have adopted a joint statement in this regard. According to the official, “it is time for the other European institutions to show more clearly their support for the European course of Ukraine and the Republic of Moldova by granting candidate status to the two countries”.

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