“Moldova’s new government skillfully diversified its gas supply options. The country appears to have avoided political concessions to Russia on broader relations with the EU. It will continue implementing general reforms to its energy market under the Third Energy Package, but will avoid restructuring Moldovagas, whose monopoly is the basis of the competition issue, senior policy fellow Andrew Wilson, who specializes in Ukraine and comparative politics of democratization in post-Soviet sates, writes on the website of the European Council on Foreign Relations.
The expert considers it would be a mistake to link Russian concessions on energy prices to talks in areas such as trade policy. Moldova sourced emergency ‘technical gas’ to maintain pressure in pipelines from Romania, Poland, and Ukraine. Arguably, however, the country had more time to sign a deal – once its partners had shown solidarity – and did so too quickly. “So, who blinked first?” asked the expert rhetorically, anticipating that a new row between the sides could erupt in 2022.
As to the “Moldovan lesson” for the EU, Andrew Wilson said nonetheless, Europe’s reliance on Russian energy supplies still poses a broader challenge. Nord Stream 2 might not concern Moldova, but it is seen as a huge strategic setback by other energy transit and bypass states – particularly Ukraine and Poland. And the EU is not really addressing Russia’s role in driving up energy prices.
Both Moldova and the EU should avoid the trap of negotiating with Russia over everything at once – energy, trade policy, and internal politics are separate areas; the bloc should not link its interests in one for those in another. Otherwise, Russia will weaken the EU’s transformative power in eastern Europe. Indeed, Russia tried to undermine EU solidarity during the Moldovan crisis, by refusing to supply Romania with additional gas and thereby limiting its capacity to help Moldova. Trade negotiations between the EU and Moldova are for the two parties alone – and not for Russia to gatecrash, concluded the expert.
