The year 2006 was a bad year for human development and it is evident that poverty in rural regions is rising and will maintain the same tendency for next year as well, when agriculture will register an absolute drop in production. Peasants, just like they did in the past, continue not to have access to both internal and external markets, and emigration reached extremely high levels, [economic analyst Valeriu Prohnitchi] told Info-Prim Neo According to him, the human development was influenced directly by what happened in the relations between the R. Moldova and Russia, and the government was not able to manage a crisis which they should have anticipated and which could have been foreseen ever since 2004-2005. “Possibly, the economy will grow in 2007, because the problem of wines is about to be solved, plus the increase in gas prices is a short term shock which the economy will unavoidably adapt to. However, the economic growth will not be reflected in the near future in the big discrepancies which still exist from the point of view of the incomes of the population”, says Prohnitchi. This opinion is shared by [the economic analyst Alexandru Oprunenco], who claims that the current year was practically lost for human development in the R. Moldova. “I am firmly convinced that the increase in gas prices and the worsening of the situation in agriculture will consolidate the negative tendencies of sharp poverty in villages even more, tendencies which are consolidated by external economic shocks, and product of very low competitiveness on the developed markets”, said the cited source. According to the expert, the positive moments of the current year, among which the regulating reform is also generally mentioned, leaves the impression that the government “is getting tired” of these reforms which are performed more due to pressure from external partners, than from an honest desire of the government to improve the situation in the country. The analyst claims that the economy remains very dependant on remittances sent by migrants, which create a vicious circle: the government is supported financially by people who leave Moldova because they are not satisfied by the quality of the government, and the money sent back actually allows the covering of certain mistakes made by the current government. “It is very good that we got financial support from foreign donors, says Oprunenco, but this is due, in great part, to the expansion of the EU which, as of January 1 will have common borders with the R. Moldova. The expansion of the EU can provide certain economic growth opportunities and, on top of that, to amortize to some extent the shocks that come from the East. At the same time, the economic growth will continue to be very much dependant on the way the relations with the Russian Federation will evolve, by the degree of implementation of the Action Plan UE-RM and the sustained rhythm of reform implementation in the R. Modova, this being one of the main signs for the international investment community. [The associated coordinator of UNDP, Mihail Peleah] considers that the 2006 year was a contradictory one. The economic shocks in the relations with Russia had negative consequences, but also some positive ones, because. Moldova started to introduce wine quality controls and seek other markets. At the same time, the increase in gas prices had a negative effect, but also demonstrated the system of social protection of vulnerable categories in Moldova is not capable of limiting the negative impact of these shocks. “There are no testing mechanisms, which could attest if all those who currently receive nominative compensations really need financial support from the state and if there are no other categories which would have greater need for this money then those who are part of the 11 categories of beneficiaries of nominative compensations”, claims the expert. Peleah sees some good signs in the quality of the government. First of all, he says, the reform of the central public administration is a very important step, and secondly, the government will start to elaborate EGPRSP-II which will present very important development opportunities. According to [the expert in economy Iurie Gotisan], the wine crisis affected a number of sectors of the national economy, leading to sackings of staff, and as a consequence, to the decrease of employee welfare in a number of branches of the national economy. “The wine crisis affected, practically in a 50% proportion, the wine making branch, taking its toe on the industrial sector in general, which suffered a regression of approximately 9%, with the glass and cardboard production branches being especially affected. Taking into consideration the fact that a considerable part of wine exports refer to agro-industrial production, we can state that the agricultural sector also suffered enormously’”, said Gotisan. According to the expert, currently, over 40% of the economically active population is engaged in the agricultural sector, and the poverty rate in certain villages reaches 50%. If in the next few years the Government will not alter its priorities, and the largest part of foreign investments will not be directed towards agriculture and rural environment, we can not expect essential changes in the economic situation of the population in the near future, added Iurie Gotisan, cited by Info-Prim Neo.