Depending on who wins the Russia-Ukraine war, the PACE resolution will be an opportunity or a danger in the Transnistrian settlement process. “Even if Moldova is given Transnistria, it does not know what to do with it and this is the biggest problem,” the standing expert of IPN’s project Igor Boțan stated in a public debate on the issue staged by IPN News Agency.
The expert said the Moldovan authorities consider the PACE resolution by which the Transnistrian region of the Republic of Moldova is recognized as a “zone of Russian occupation” is a political statement and do not want to comment on it. “The other participants in the Transnistrian settlement process – Ukraine, OSCE, the EU, the U.S. – will have a different attitude to the Russia Federation’s role of mediator and pacificator, while Moldova, with its very modest potential, most probably does not know what to do. Thirty years had to pass for an international institution to name things and this happens when a state calls a phenomenon that everyone regards as a war against Ukraine in a different way”.
Igor Boțan also said that an occupant state cannot be simultaneously a pacificator and a mediator in a conflict it caused – the Transnistrian dispute. Or the talks in the 5+2 format lose their essence.
The expert noted he sees the undecided behavior of the parliamentary opposition, which is a permanent bloc that consists of the Party of Communists and the Party of Socialists. The Party of Communists keeps silent, but they laid the basis of cooperation with NATO and signed a decree on cooperation between Moldova and the EU. “They persuaded us, the citizens, that we should follow this direction, but now behave hesitantly”.
Igor Boțan said that if Russia wins the war against Ukraine, it will occupy the territory of the Transnistrian region and could include it in the so-called “Novorossyia”. “Such a scenario is possible judging by al Russia’s statements. The problem is how the border will be delimited. The second option: if Russia fails in Ukraine, this resolution of the Council of Europe is very important. The problem will be addressed this way: “These were 30 years of occupation and you blocked our development”. If a suitable solution is found, the inclusion of Transnistria into the constitutional space will cost and this money can come from what is eventually frozen of the Russian Federation’s property,” he stated.
According to the expert, things can remain in suspense and this is the third variant. “The 5+2 format almost lost its sense and we should find a solution as there are citizens of the Republic of Moldova there. All these three scenarios are very difficult,” said Igor Boțan.
In another development, the expert said the only thing he can reproach the current government for is that they are afraid. The government’s comments on the PACE resolution seem simply weird to him.
The public debate titled “PACE recognized Transnistria as “zone of Russian occupation”. What new opportunities or risks can this generate for the reintegration of the Republic of Moldova?” was the 230th installment of IPN’s project “Developing Political Culture through Public Debates” that is supported by the Hanns Seidel Foundation.
