Three weeks ago, particular political players of the Republic of Moldova announced that the senior authorities planned to stage a bloody military conflict on the border with the Transnistrian region on April 17. Among the details that were designed to impress were 20,000 military and police uniforms, a foreign military contingent and 3,000 coffins that were allegedly intended for the victims of the bloodshed. The tragedy didn’t happen even if the announcement was made from a communication rostrum of the Parliament of the Republic of Moldova. Moreover, there was no sign that something like this could happen. The subject was discussed as a case study by experts invited to the IPN’s public debate “Hybrid war: manifestations, dangers, solutions”.
Igor Boţan, the permanent expert of IPN’s project, said the hybrid war is one in which the hostile actions of the attacker are aimed at destroying the opponent by hidden operations, sabotage, cyber war, disinformation, support for the insurgents who act on the enemy’s territory, etc. The origins of the hybrid war are very old. The war can be not only conventional, in its classical form, with weapons in the arms, but can also be a cold war when the countries oppose each other at ideological or economic level. Also, tanks should not necessarily be sent to the territory of another country. Diversionist operations to destabilize the states can be launched and then special military operations are announced as if to establish peace.
The disinformation of the population is one of the key factors of the hybrid war. The modern digital and socialization platforms enable the hybrid war subjects to easily influence the civilian population to the detriment of the rival state by publishing fake news. In the hybrid war, the enemy puts great hope in the actions of diversionist, sabotage groups whose task is to destroy the country from inside, or the enemy corrupts the citizens of the state that is attacked through the hybrid war. The legal framework concerning the fight against the enemy that wages hybrid wars is the one that refers to state security and the intelligence services. If the enemy does not manage to wage a hybrid war, it starts an open armed conflict. In this case, the war laws were defined in order to protect the civilians and the military. They are based on international humanitarian law.
Natalia Spînu, executive director of the European Institute for Political Studies of Moldova, said the citizens should realize what hybrid war is and should contribute to fighting it by correct informing. If every citizen identifies a false message that tries to mislead or panic, the population will contribute, together with the state institutions, to the security of the state. Each ministry should follow and communicate relevant cases of hybrid war to the law enforcement agencies that are responsible for state security so that these take subsequent measures. It is very hard to see the signs of a hybrid attack. Things are more difficult in this field as the cyberspace does not have borders and the attacker can easily infiltrate into a particular county to launch an attack. The biggest risks are those to the critical infrastructure, including energy, water and gas networks.
Natalia Spînu noted that an attacker needs a computer and Internet connection. The things are similar in the case of a state. The sensitive, classified information, the whole critical infrastructure are connected to the Internet and if the weaknesses are not followed and risk assessments are not carried out, no measures are taken to assess the legal framework and to educate the population, the consequences can be serious. The Republic of Moldova should not lose time and should learn from the less pleasant lessons of the mates from Ukraine, like the cyber-attacks of 2014, when a number of state and private institutions and also about 90 countries were affected, and to also learn from the good practices of other countries. These should be implemented ahead of a crisis when the population will be panicked and the necessary communication will not be possible.
Igor Klipii, secretary general of the Coalition for Unity and Wellbeing, ex-ambassador of the Republic of Moldova to Lithuania, said that in particular interpretations, a hybrid war is also the use of the internal resources of a society against its interests without this realizing it. In the case of the Republic of Moldova, the enemy studies very attentively the weaknesses of Moldovan society and manipulates against it. The problem with the hybrid war is not so difficult in theory, but is difficult in practice because it envisions interventions in concrete issues and political will. It necessitates fast reactions that are hard to shape.
He noted the reports that the authorities intended to stage a bloody military conflict on the border with the Transnistrian region, with the details including military and police uniforms, a foreign military contingent and 3,000 coffins, are the top of an anti-Republic of Moldova propaganda iceberg whose goal is to maintain dissention and fear, to create false discussion themes as the Republic of Moldova, after it lost the Nistru war, 30 years ago, so far hasn’t drawn concrete conclusions and hasn’t strengthened its armed forces. When one says that the Republic of Moldova wants to attack Transnistria, the fact that Moldova does not have an army is somehow overlooked. So, Moldova does not have the real capacity to do this, beyond the fact that society is not morally prepared to do this. The goal of such statements is to maintain fear in society. It is a matter of continuous manipulation that keeps up false debate issue.
The public debate entitled “Hybrid war: manifestations, dangers, solutions” was the 280th installment of IPN’s project “Developing Political Culture through Public Debates” that is supported by the Hanns Seidel Foundation of Germany.
