The European Union is ready to stop the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine from January 1, 2025, together with the expiry of the contract between Gazprom and Naftogaz. In a context of geopolitical tensions and reproaches between member states and Ukraine, European officials and regional leaders issued divergent statements about the impact of this decision on energy security, IPN reports.
A spokesperson for the European Commission said that the negative impact of the end of gas transit through Ukraine on the security of EU supply is limited. The security of gas supplies to the EU has been significantly improved over the past few years thanks to measures to ensure efficient use of energy and the development of renewable energy sources.
According to a report by the European Commission, Russian gas volumes shipped through Ukraine decreased significantly in recent years, from 40 bcm before Russia's invasion of Ukraine to just 14.65 bcm in 2023. The most affected countries are Austria and Slovakia, which are heavily dependent on these imports.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reaffirmed in Brussels that "we will not extend the transit of Russian gas" after the expiration of the current agreement. He stressed that Ukraine could allow transit under strict conditions: "If a European country is willing to receive this gas and not pay for it to Russia until the end of the war, then we can reflect on further authorizing transit.”
At the same time, the Ukrainian official rejected the idea of Russian gas being transited through intermediaries, such as Azerbaijan: "If a country receives Russian gas, it means transferring money to Russia, which can thus finance its military industry," the Ukrainian president pointed out.
At his annual press conference, Russian President Vladimir Putin commented on the expiry of the Russian gas deal with Ukraine: "This contract will no longer exist, that is clear. But it's good – we will survive, Gazprom will survive," Putin said.
Robert Fico, the Prime Minister of Slovakia, criticized Ukraine's position, calling the decision "wrong and irrational". In a letter to the European Commission, Fico said: "The tacit acceptance of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's unilateral decision to block the transit of Russian gas is wrong and will lead to increased tensions." Fico warned that Slovakia could stop supplying electricity to Ukraine in response to this decision.
Impact on Moldova and the Transnistrian region
Moldova is one of the countries that will directly feel the effects of the cessation of transit. Although most of the territory does not import Russian gas, the Transnistrian region is completely dependent on it, both for consumption and for electricity production at the MGRES plant. The European Commission's report stresses that finding alternative sources of gas is essential to ensure Moldova's energy stability.
The European Commission highlighted four main routes for diversification of supply: LNG terminals in Germany, Greece, Italy and Poland, as well as pipelines in Norway and Turkey. In addition, regional efforts are underway to harmonize regulations and maximize the use of existing infrastructure: "The European Union is well prepared for this transition, with gas storages over 95% full and energy efficiency measures implemented," the Commission's conclusions read.
This complex situation marks a new chapter in the energy relations between Europe, Russia and Ukraine, with long-term economic and political implications.
