The Ministry of Economy reviewed down the economic growth forecast for this year, from 4% to 3.5%, IPN reports. In a meeting of the Ministry’s Consultative Council, Deputy Prime Minister and Minster of Economy Valeriu Lazar said the forecast of 3.5% is based on objective factors and takes into account the probable risks for this year.
According to the official, the risks are related to the restriction of exports to the CIS countries, the problems that the Moldovan migrants can encounter, especially those working in Russia, and the worsening of the economic situation in Ukraine, Russia, and Belarus.
“Moldova’s economic growth potential is greater. We gradually reached a level of 4-5%. Statistics show that exports fell by US$35 million after Russia imposed a ban on the imports of Moldovan wine. However, most of the economic indicators in the first quarter of this year were good. Thus, economic potential exists,” stated Valeriu Lazar.
He added that the economic growth forecast of 3.5% for this year excludes the imposition of new bans. If bans are imposed on fruit and vegetables for example, such a scenario will no be possible. “We will anyway survive. The EU increased the import quotas on Moldova apples and the demand on the part of Romania is also higher. We cannot reorient our exports now, but the companies, the private sector are taking steps in this direction. We do not yet interrupt the dialogue with the partners from Russia,” said Valeriu Lazar.
The Ministry of Economy forecast that the industrial production this year will grow by 6%, while the agricultural production by 3%. Exports are projected to grow by 4%, w imports by 3%, while the investments in long-term material assets by 5%.
Economic analyst Viorel Chivriga said the economic growth forecast for 2014 is realistic. “Surely we cannot hope for the growth obtained in 2013 – of 8.9%. But 2014 must be a year of essential changes for Moldova. As regards the economic model and the improvement of the business climate, a new impetus is given by the approaching signing of the Association Agreement and the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement with the EU,” he stated.
The Ministry’s economic growth forecast for 2015-2017 is 4.5%.
