IPN analysis: It is only a few days left before the start of a new political season. According to the tradition established lately, the relations between the central authorities and the authorities of the autonomous unit Gagauzia will be one of the main components of the political process. What initiatives should we expect from Comrat? To what extent will they influence the Moldovan political agenda?
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Details of the Moldovan-Gagauz relations this autumn can be found out by analyzing the main news subjects in Comrat of the last few months.
From words to protests
The conflict concerning the inter-budgetary relations between Gagauzia and the central authorities will be the first to be felt. It appeared in July following the adoption by Moldova’s Parliament of amendments to the Law on Local Public Finances, under which a large part of the taxes collected on the territory of Gagauzia will be transferred to the state budget. The authorities of Gagauzia unanimously described the actions of the Moldovan Government as an attempt to deprive the region of financial autonomy.
In summer the Gagauz leaders only expressed their dissatisfaction with a series of statements, but in autumn the verbal expressions can turn into street protests. According to the information possessed by the Gagauz authorities, these amendments are to be passed in the final reading in one of the first sittings of Parliament, which will most probably be accompanied by protests staged by Gagauz people in Chisinau.
The conflict caused by the new method of distributing the collected taxes may worsen if the local authorities from all over Moldova become involved. By the way, the Party of Regions of Moldova, headed by the Governor of Gagauzia, may step up activity as its doctrine focuses namely on the defense of the interests, including financial, of the local communities.
Time will show if the politicians from Chisinau and Comrat are able to reach a compromise and to identify a mutually acceptable solution to this matter, without confrontation and reciprocal pressure. The previous days, representatives of the parliamentary groups of the three parties that formed the government, in an interview for IPN expressed readiness to return to the given bill and to consider the disagreements that appeared. Will the sides be able to sincerely analyze all the existing viewpoints on the issue, including of the authors of the draft national decentralization strategy? The authors say the changes made to the Law on Local Public Finances meet the European decentralization principles according to which direct relations are established between the mayor’s offices and the central budget, without the intermediation of the district and regional authorities, and this is the mechanism by which real autonomy is offered to every village and commune. Going from this position, namely the regional authorities of Gagauzia oppose the reforms in this field, pursuing the goal of tying the local authorities with their own financial ‘belt’. Though, on the other hand, such an approach makes Comrat remind the fact that Gagauzia is an autonomous unit within Moldova, not a district. Consequently, the settlements of Gagauzia are to contribute to the budget process at the local level first of all.
Problematic referendums
The referendum on Gagauzia gaining independence from Moldova promises to have a rather resounding continuation. It should be noted that at the end of July, an initiative group made a call to the People’s Assembly of Gagauzia, asking that the Gagauz lawmakers make sure that the Moldovan authorities implement the Law on the Special Legal Status of Gagauzia, which, according to them, hasn’t been respected since it was adopted in 1994. Otherwise, the People’s Assembly of Gagauzia should hold a consultative referendum on the unit’s withdrawal from the composition of Moldova by December 2015 and the return to the status of the Republic of Gagauzia that existed as unrecognized since 1990 until 1994. Besides, the referendum can include questions about the attitude of the residents of Gagauzia to the possibility of joining the Customs Union and to the European integration course followed by the official Chisinau.
In support of this call, as representatives of the People’s Assembly of Gagauzia asserted, there were collected over 6,000 signatures. Though many local politicians questioned the authenticity of these signatures, this didn’t hinder the People’s Assembly to launch the process of public debates on the scandalous initiative. In particular, the legal commission of the People’s Assembly adopted a decision according to which, the matters raised by the initiative group should be examined in the meetings of the local councils and in the assemblies of peoples from all the settlements of Gagauzia. The given assemblies will be called by September 25. Afterward, the resolutions adopted by them will be submitted to the People’s Assembly of Gagauzia.
From the viewpoint of the national legislation, the decisions on ‘separatist referendums’ adopted by the village councils have surely no legal power. They can even lead to the sudden worsening of the relations between the autonomous unit and Chisinau and can have all the possible consequences – attempts by the Government to impose legal penalties, conservation of financing by the state of the construction of social facilities on the territory of Gagauzia, diminution of the prospects of normalizing the process of resolving the Transnistrian dispute. It is evident that the consequences will be unpleasant for both of the sides.
As regards the issues concerning the Customs Union and the European integration, though the administration of Moldova considers such subjects as unacceptable for being discussed in a referendum, the attempt to hamper the holding of the given referendum will result in certain difficulties. The main problem will reside in the fact that the public opinion will be mainly on the side of the Gagauz people, while the actions taken despite the position of at least half of the people will constitute another factor for undermining the stability of the current government coalition.
Speaking about the Pro-European Coalition, it is the Democratic Party of Moldova (PDM) that found itself in the most delicate situation. If judging by the official information, it is in power in Gagauzia as it holds a majority of seats in the regional parliament. An unusual situation was created: at regional level the PDM puts into application certain mechanisms that can lead to the separation of a certain part of the state, possibly to the destruction of this state, while at the central level this party will have to oppose these trends. Maybe it is not yet late to deal with these aspects at party level so as not to disturb the masses?
Time has come for stakes
Another event in the autumn political life of the autonomous unit, which in the future will also produce a national echo, will be the congress of the Public Movement “United Gagauzia” that was announced for October. It is expected that the main item on the agenda of the congress will be selection of the movement’s candidate for the next elections for the Governor (Bashkan) of Gagauzia that will take place at the end of 2014 or the beginning of 2015.
Several years ago, answering the question about his possible successor in an interview, Governor Mihail Formuzal made it clear that there are several candidates for this post. Among others, he mentioned current first deputy governor of Gagauzia Valeri Ianioglo, heeds of the Ciadir-Lunga district administration Serghei Buzadji, and deputy in the People’s Assembly of Gagauzia from Vulcanesti Victor Petrioglo. Since then, the issue of the successor hasn’t been raised and there were no signals pointing to a definite candidate. Even if it’s easier to image Valeri Ianioglo as Governor of Gagauzia among the representatives of the team of Formuzal, at the autumn congress they will probably announce the initiation of so-called internal organizational primaries.
This way or another, no matter who the candidate on behalf of the “United Gagauzia” is, the Moldovan governmental circles are to already work out the own strategy for these elections that will be held practically simultaneously with the legislative elections in Moldova. The character of the reciprocal relations of the central authorities with the region depends on the person that will be elected to govern the autonomous unit. That’s why, the campaign for the elections of the Governor represents not only the option of the local population, but also the stake of Chisinau to a certain extent.
Gagauzia and expectations of Vilnius Summit
Thus, the relations between Chisinau and Comrat will be in autumn subject to serious challenges. The coming EaP Summit of Vilnius will also cause additional nervousness. Some of the political commentators already described the actions of the Gagauz politicians as impediments that can become a cause for the non-signing of important documents for Moldova in Vilnius. If the mentioned problems existing in the relations between the central authorities and Gagauzia are not solved, the situation may turn into a long-lasting conflict. In such a case, if the summit set to take place in the capital of Lithuania at the end of November will indeed not meet the expectations of Chisinau, it is already clear who will be among those to ‘blame’ for this failure.
We cannot univocally assert that all the latest and future problems in the relations between Comrat and Chisinau should be examined through the angle of the Vilnius events. However, we can presume that the trends witnessed in southern Moldova can in the future affect the foundations of the Republic of Moldova.
In this connection, we should remember a series of statements made by politicians and analysts from Chisinau, who see in the created situation an analogy with the one that preceded the fall of the Soviet Union. Moldova’s first President Mircea Snegu repeatedly stated the conditions imposed on him by the then leaders of the USSR - Gorbachev and Lukianov: “You either sign the Union Agreement or you will have two more republics on Moldova’s territory”. Some say this thing played a part in the appearance of the Transnistrian Republic and the Gagauz Republic. This autumn, in Vilnius, Moldova is to again make a historical choice...
Veaceslav Craciun, for IPN
