"This prediction will not necessarily be confirmed in whole or in part, but the Moldovan authorities and Moldovan society have the obligation to foresee everything, if they want to keep the possibility of choosing between being "at the negotiating table" or “on the negotiating table"..."


Today, February 10, is the last day when the Republic of Moldova delivers natural gas to the left bank of the Nistru, based on the $20 million grant offered by the European Union as a short-term solution to the energy crisis in this region, which began on January 1 due to the interruption in Russian gas supplies. Theoretically, gas supplies could have started today under the second €60 million grant offered by the EU to ensure a medium-term solution to the crisis, until the end of the heating season. At this point, we can say with enough certainty that the first delivery will end, and the second one will not start. We can also say that the second delivery will not start very soon or will never start. Firstly, because the leaders of the separatist regime in Tiraspol may not accept the conditions that need to be fulfilled to get free European gas, without great risks for them. Secondly, because they will not have the Kremlin's acceptance, and the Kremlin will not accept it because it has not fulfilled the goals for which it initiated the energy crisis in the Transnistrian region. The government in Chisinau must take into account such a turn as well.

Own reasons

The de facto administration also has its own reasons for rejecting the conditions put forward by the Republic of Moldova and the European Union. For example, it has little way to take measures to remedy the situation regarding the fundamental human rights and freedoms in the controlled territory because this would mean releasing dozens, if not hundreds of political prisoners from jails, accepting the existence of political opposition, liberalizing the conditions of unhindered movement for all citizens in the area, including those on the right side of the Nistru, as well as for the entire press of the Republic of Moldova.

These and other similar measures would demonstrate the illegal and illegitimate nature of the Transnistrian regime so far. The possible refusal by this administration to develop and implement a plan for the phased adjustment of energy charges up to those (market ones) paid by the population and economic agents on the territory controlled by the constitutional authorities must be regarded in the same context. If the population on the right bank of the Nistru can get angry and punish the governments electorally for increasing charges by a few percentages, it is not difficult to anticipate what will be the reaction of the people living on the left bank of the Nistru if charges are increased several-fold if not dozens-fold. By accepting these conditions, the secessionist administration would voluntarily sign its suicidal act in a political and not just political sense, if they had not secured some personal guarantees from actors with a large weight in the world to be used after their supposed, but not quite real voluntary departure from office.

Rejection or delay

Primary, however, is the verdict that will come or has already come from Moscow regarding the Moldovan-European conditions. And its content is easy to understand: the conditions are not accepted or are formally accepted for a short period, until Moscow invents other tricks meant to ensure the realization of the plans to take control of the entire Republic of Moldova, as has already been said, including by influencing the parliamentary elections in the autumn of this year.

The detailed reasons why Moscow caused the energy crisis in Transnistria, but also the reasons why Tiraspol cannot dare not to listen to the Kremlin's instructions were described in the analysis published almost a month ago "The Moscow-Tiraspol collusion will continue "until the end". One more, essential reason appeared recently in addition to the reasons listed then: Moscow not only lost the first stage of the scenario initiated by itself, but allowed Chisinau and Brussels to take the initiative. And this "cannot be forgiven".

It is true that Moscow and Tiraspol could pretend to accept the conditions, but only for the purpose of delaying things as it already became very cold outside and the people on the left bank of the Nistru would react very sickly if they were forced to suddenly return to the inhuman conditions in which they lived in January. In fact, it is not excluded that this tactic was also applied in the case of accepting the first grant for a period of 10 days. In this regard, we could expect Tiraspol to resort to lengthy tricks during the elaboration of the plans requested by the Moldova-EU and their coordination by the Moldovan government. Or they could accept particular conditions, the implementation of which the Government in Chisinau could not control due to the lack of real mechanisms and the obstacles placed by the separatist regime. However, Moscow and Tiraspol will definitely oppose, at least for a while, the solutions that put Brussels and Chisinau in a better light "in front of the electorate". And they do not have another better way than upsetting the plans of these. 

They laid their cards on the table

In the meantime, the Transnistrian administration has also shown a number of clear signs from which we can deduce the negative position on the conditions for supplying gas on European money. Here are some of them, but they are not the only ones:

- On Wednesday, February 5, it extended the state of emergency in the energy sector by one month, but this would be useless if it had planned to accept the gas supplies, based on the €60 million grant, together with the conditions put forward. It is noteworthy that the grant and the conditions were announced by the European Commissioner for Enlargement Marta Kos one day before, on February 4;

- Until the last moment, it did not provide any response to the Moldovan-European offer and conditions, keeping complete silence for almost a whole week. At least, no information has appeared in the public space in this regard;

- It is making gas reserves so that it can manage the situation for as long as possible, after the whole amount of gas purchased with the €20 million grant would have been supplied today. In this regard, for several days, it asked Chisinau for a maximum volume of 3 million cubic meters, ensured the pressure in the pipelines on account of gas borrowed from the right bank, banned the activity (only a few days ago) of cryptocurrency farms, which are extremely energy-intensive.

- Meanwhile, it was reported that "a Hungarian company, controlled by those close to Prime Minister Victor Orban, is testing the transit of gas to the Transnistrian region with a number of operators." "Through a company based in Dubai, gas for the Transnistrian region could be officially paid for, the financing being covered by a loan granted by the Russian Federation. And the daily quantity stipulated in the contract is up to 5 million cubic meters," said Alexandr Slusari, a member of the Board of Energocom. The version is all the more plausible as the Russian press previously wrote about the involvement of Hungarian companies in the Kremlin's scenarios for the Transnistrian region.

Not much, but it still has

What does the administration of the Republic of Moldova have to do in these possible new conditions, in which the Moldovan-European initiative can be overshadowed. Not much, but it still has.

First of all, it is essential for it to ensure the legality of the "Hungarian" scheme for the supply of gas to the left bank of the Nistru in order to avoid violating international norms on shadow financing and the sanctions regime against the Russian Federation as an aggressor state. Without the official approval of the Republic of Moldova, gas supplies to the Transnistrian region are not possible. Otherwise, it can find itself in big trouble on the international arena.

Perhaps, it would be appropriate to review the tax rates for companies operating in the Transnistrian region, which carry out their exports (over 80% to the EU) through the Republic of Moldova, if they continue to use Russian gas offered free of charge. Otherwise, the absolutely unfair competition in which the economic agents on the right bank of the Nistru find themselves presents an imminent risk for the economic and not only economic security of the Republic of Moldova, and possibly not only of the Republic of Moldova.

It is very important for the government to communicate as best as it can with society on both banks of the Nistru River and to manage as judiciously as possible the €150 million European grant meant to cover, for a whole year, the increase in electricity charges for consumers on the territory controlled by the constitutional authorities.

Again about side of “iron curtain”

Thus, the Moldovan authorities do not have too many levers to influence the situation if the Moldovan-European project to overcome the energy crisis on the left bank of the Nistru is stopped, even temporarily, but also to initiate very active processes for the reunification of the country. This is also because, as some experts say, Transnistria can become a bargaining chip in the geopolitical game between the great powers regarding the redivision of spheres of influence in the context of negotiations on stopping the Russian-Ukrainian war. Rather, Transnistria will or will not find itself in the constitutional field of the Republic of Moldova depending on which side of the future iron curtain the Republic of Moldova will find itself, and the fate of the entire Republic of Moldova will depend on which side of that curtain Ukraine will be.

This prediction will not necessarily be confirmed in whole or in part, but the Moldovan authorities and Moldovan society have the obligation to foresee everything, if they want to keep the possibility of choosing between being "at the negotiating table" or “on the negotiating table".

P.S.: Prediction - rational operation of anticipation of an event or phenomenon.