IPN analysis: Many people do not agree with what the pro-European government of Moldova does and wonder why the development partners continue to support the current government, including by frequent and high-ranking visits to Chisinau? There is an evident contradiction between the internal and external perception of the Moldovan government in the middle. Why do the European leaders continue to come and what will happen if they stop coming…?
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The Europeans, with or without fault?

A part of Moldovan society considers that things in Moldova over the last few years have worsened. They usually make reference to the flourishing corruption, the more pronounced injustice and, more recently, to the stealing of the ‘US$1 billion’, which is called the ‘theft of the century’, and to other things. Volens-nolens, this perception is associated with the current pro-European government. On the one hand, the European bodies and their leaders continue to make statements concerning the offering of support to Moldova, as earlier, before it became ‘worse’. That part of Moldovan society believes that volens-nolens, the Europeans assume a part of the image and responsibilities of our ‘pro-European government’. It’s not known if this association suits the Europeans, but this perception surely affects the European development course of Moldova. Maybe the descendent trend regarding the pro-European options, revealed by the latest opinion polls, and the ascendant trend concerning the pro-Eastern options are due to this…

Who are the judges?

At social level, is seems that such a perception is typical mainly of the categories oriented to Europe, which had very great expectations of the development course and of the government that pledged to promote it, but these weren’t met. The categories that didn’t accept the European idea from the very beginning described the situation as ‘worse’ from that very beginning and continue to consider so, even if the Europeans provided noticeable support over the last few years. Maybe these categories modified their position somehow, but only as regards their ‘the worse, the better’ belief, including because this would definitively discredit the European idea in favor of the pro-Eastern alternative.

Things are more or less clear at the level of the government, to which another well-known saying will apply if many people perceive things this way and these increase in number – ‘as you make your bed, so you must lie on it’. The reasons for the Europeans’ behavior with certain risk doses deserve to be examined separately. Below you will find some of them as possible variants in search of an answer.

Why did Merkel go to Putin?

The Europeans come because they are used to work with the legal government. They have declared this and have done this for decades not only in relation to Moldova. They prefer to cooperate and to communicate with such a government rather than to make an enemy of it. The quality of governance is rather the responsibility of the people who are now dissatisfied with it. Even if the analogy is not complete, for the same reasons Angela Merkel went to Vladimir Putin on May 10, even if not on May 9, and even if the German chancellor is the central force on which the European sanctions against Russia for its behavior towards Ukraine are based. During many years, Europe maintained both economic sanctions against Iran and a format of negotiations with this country. In fact, the long negotiations recently produced particular results. Moldova’s case is entirely different. The Europeans come with dialogue and support, including financial, which Moldova never received from anyone else in the world. The interruption in the visits connected with the government would mean the interruption in the support connected with the country.

70 years in common and two parallel worlds

As we are situated right in their rib and can distress them by being so divided and intolerant as we are, the Europeans come to conciliate us and to teach us how to reconcile with us and with the people around because, owing to particular conditions that represent a separate theme, they learned this lesson decades or even centuries ago. “All different, all equal” is not only a slogan of theirs. It is a model of being, at internal level and at external one. The most serious lesson in this respect, which was learned only by the Europeans, had the result that after World War II they not only do not fight between them, but also support each other. The format they discovered about 65 years ago is called the ‘European Union’, which can be considered a find of the human civilization. The bad luck of those who today constitute the Republic of Moldova is the fact that until recently we lived in totally different conditions, and the pompous way in which we ‘celebrate’ the Victory Day in over 70 years clearly shows that we haven’t yet overcome the ‘belligerent’ mentality, based on the division of the people into ‘ours’ and ‘foreigners/enemies’.

Important models of tolerance

By the way, in this respect as well do the Europeans give us an example of tolerance because they have urged us for many years to be tolerant both towards those who celebrate the Victory Day and towards those for whom Europe Day is important. During many years, they haven’t demanded driving away the supporters of the ‘Victory’ from the Great National Assembly Square in favor of those who support ‘Europe’ on May 9, even if they had the necessary influence to do so. They always contented with the day of May 10 or even with a delay of one week and more in some settlements. They became mature long ago and help us to become mature too, step by step, based on tolerance and understanding so that we give an example at the level of society. At the level of political class, probably for the same reasons, the President of the European Council Donald Tusk met recently in Chisinau both with the leader of the Liberal Democratic Party Vlad Filat and with the leader of a new political project Iurie Leanca. Given that the two do not really like each other, this seems to be another example. The leaders of some of Moldovan parties were often those who openly refused to meet with Western officials who came to Moldova.

The ‘US$1 billion’ as a separate case and as a process

The Europeans probably also come because they know something that we, those we are ‘dissatisfied’, do not know or are not ready to see. I don’t know if it’s the case of the stealing of the US$1 billion, but this case is also relevant one way or another, if we analyze things more thoroughly. Those who are ‘dissatisfied’ justly consider that the pro-European government is to blame for the actions and/or inaction in this case. But ‘our’ logic makes the Europeans also to blame because they possibly knew more about the given ‘transaction’, “but didn’t intervene and even continue to support this government”. The difference between ‘we’ and ‘they’ is that we see a case with finality in this situation, while they see a process that we are not yet ready to see in general. They know such processes from their own historical experience and from the analysis of the modern history of all the states from the former Soviet Union and even the former Socialist camp. They, the Europeans, understand that the young democracies, owing to the sad previous political and social experiences, face almost the same problems that appeared at particular stages of development.

“Ours come, yours leave”

Perhaps the experts who say that one of these problems that is common to all the ex-Soviets and ex-Socialists – the oligarchization of the state – are right. At least the existence of this phenomenon in Moldova would explain many of the problems faced by the country lately. Thus, dismantling the oligarchic system would be the solution to these problems. We know certain ways for achieving this noble goal, but they all can be reduced to the short slogan “Down!” disseminated by a protest, revolution or, newly, the ‘maidan’. But after each revolution ours come, yours leave and we anyway remain like fools, as a song says, because the system remains intact. The Europeans know and prefer other forms and methods of dismantling this system, with a different finale of this process. The most relevant example is witnessed in the neighboring country Romania and one of the best Romanian experts Iulian Chifu defined its essence the previous days, including for IPN: “Moldova could follow the path of Romania. The best reforms that produced results were done by the Nastase Government, which was considered the most corrupt one. Now the fight against corruption in Romania is so intense that even those who created the corruption combating bodies are imprisoned”.

Functional institutions and high-ranking ‘inspections’

The essence in all these equations is the functional state institutions that can make everyone obey the law, regardless of the rank, political color, accumulated capital, etc. And only then and this way can the problems of corruption and oligarchization of the state be solved, if they really exist in Moldova. Why to be or to tend to become an ‘oligarch’ (superrich person enjoying a lot of power in the state), if you anytime can find yourself handcuffed, as an ordinary pickpocket?

Maybe the Europeans consider the experts who say that the ‘oligarchic system of Moldova’ reached a final phase, is overripe and is close to falling into the hands of the ‘just justice’ are right, but this justice is yet to be created or, possibly, its creation should be brought to an end. What should the ‘oligarchic system’ do in this case? Launch the slogan “Down!”, cause great agitation with or without ‘maidans’, organize an exchange of awards because in such conditions the system survives and we remain, as every time, with the hangover after each “April 7” (2009) or “November 7“ (1917). Maybe we should allow the Europeans to finish their creation because they come and give money for justice, for fighting corruption and dismantling the oligarchic system namely by creating functional state institutions. In fact, if somebody hasn’t yet understood, the Europeans do not come for ‘a walk’ only for offering support. They come mainly for ‘inspections’ (Margot Wallström). The regular meetings of the Government and the development partners, which center on the implementation of the policy recommendations from the informative notes transmitted earlier by the development partners to the authorities and of the Government’s plans of actions, have the same form of inspection.

Internal and external pressure as a duo

It was a way of saying ‘let the Europeans do their job’. Surely they will not want and will not be able to do something if we, those we are ‘dissatisfied’ do not help them. We should mandatorily add our pressure to the pressure exerted by them on the Moldovan political class. Those 40,000-50,000 people who took part in the May 3 protest evidently influenced the behavior of the government, including the publication of the Kroll report, the invitation to Moldova of Georgian and Ukrainian anticorruption experts last week and of the fearsome head of the fearsome National Anticorruption Directorate of Romania Laura Codruta Kovesi this week and the recent consultations with civil society on the executive’s anticorruption initiatives. The reactivation of the spirit of activism and of protests in Moldovan society is probably the most encouraging phenomenon of the last few years, in the wake of the many and big objective and subjective problems and disappointments. The expansion of this phenomenon is one of the few internal driving forces, besides the external support, that can really activate the veritable reformation of the state institutions, which means practically the real process of integrating Moldova into the European Union.

The next one-two steps?

But the “Down!” only is not enough. Since the start of April, through the May 3 protest until now, the protesters didn’t show signs that they know what will follow and what will be the second and third steps. Tents put up around the Government Building, the Parliament Building and Presidential Office? What’s next? If the government resigns, what will we do?  Will we install provisional governments? Who will form them? The sailor Jelezneak and/or the elites giving speeches from the rostrums set up in the Great National Assembly Square? Or will we hold elections? When and how? Who will win them most probably? If the government does not make concessions, are we ready for the ‘maidan’? Can we protect ourselves from snipers, ‘little green men’ and other kinds of provocations? How will other categories of population, who are against protests and the integration into the EU, react? Did someone make sure that this time nobody will take us by the bridle to the stable of the next rulers-oligarchs or non-oligarchs, as it happened so many times?

What about the expectations and hopes of those who are dissatisfied with the quality of modernization and European integration? What about the state institutions that remained unreformed and the visits by the Europeans and their money that was already invested in Moldova? The first who will benefit from such a prospect are … the oligarchs who probably exist and whom we suspect of robing us. They will remain free and with their property intact.

Let’s see now what happens if the European leaders decide not to come to Moldova anymore in response to the suspicions and direct accusations of the Moldovans?

Without European visits and money

First of all there will be no European financing – grants, projects and loans. The previous days, Prime Minister Chiril Gaburici admitted that the non-signing of a new memorandum with the IFM would be a disaster for Moldova. We haven’t had memorandums with the IMF for a rather long period of time. When he said this, the Premier hoped that the Europeans will continue to provide money. Does someone image a ‘double disaster’ in the seriously stricken Moldova? The Europeans will not provide funds if they are not allowed to monitor how this money is used. Not only the pro-European Moldovans will feel the absence of European financing. Those of a different geopolitical orientation will also feel it. For example, the Communist mayor and his less European supporters in Balti, where projects financed by the Europeans were implemented and continue to be implemented.

Bouquets of corruption and ‘oligarchs’

In the absence of institutions that will efficiently fight corruption and oligarchy, these would flourish more by the model used in absolutely all the former Soviet republics that didn’t help the luck to take them under the European umbrella by reforms and democratization.

From full stop or from comma?

The Moldovans, especially those who care and are bothered by the deviations of the current government, will be unable and will not want to live in different conditions than those in which they got used to live, with free movement through the world and freedom, even if relative, of expression, assembly and of the media, despite their deficiencies. Anyway, these will have to start everything from zero once and there is now, in this historical period, no other way than through Europe. Maybe we should make sure that we can continue the road now, from comma, or even from full stop and comma, instead of resorting to exclamation marks or to ‘full stop and from the start’?…

“Holy place does not remain empty”

If the Europeans no logger come with their model of life, who will come instead and with what model? Now there are only two models: European and Eastern. Within the Eastern one, used in all the post-Soviet countries, the political power and economic clans are represented by the same persons, and we agreed that this means ‘oligarchy’. There, corruption and oligarchy are not smaller, while justice is not better and is even worse, and are based on autocratic, by definition, nondemocratic or slightly democratic regimes. If in Moldova’s conditions we can change the oligarchic clans from time to time, in all the other countries, maybe except for Ukraine and Georgia, these were installed practically for good. It is the business of the peoples of these countries if they accept such a state of affairs. We are yet able to see that the combination of circumstances of the Eastern model cannot generate living standards and freedoms equal to those ensured by the Western model. Maybe the experts meant namely this when they said that ‘our’ oligarchic system is close to the final ripening phase and can be easier dismantled, but only with the help of the ‘visits’ by the Europeans.

Last redoubt

Thus, the European leaders and their ‘visits’ seem to be our last allies, our last hope and redoubt, including in solving the problems we have between us and together in relation to our governments. It is the last and only instrument for dismantling the oligarchic system and replacing it with a more predictable system, checked by other states, and more ‘comestible’ for the people who live in his country. That’s why in the hope, but also concerned that the wave of protests in Moldova will grow, the call is to make sure that the child is not thrown away together with the used water from the basin where he was washed. Here the ‘child’ is our life, while the ‘used water’ is the governments that in democracy exist to come and go. Maybe the presence of the Europeans in Moldova should be compared with the ‘potions of medicinal herbs’ that are put in the water to strengthen the immunity of the newborn. In fact, we can say that it is not only about the European leaders in Moldova, but also about the European peoples and the European spirit felt in our country: last weakened we found out that 23 of the 28 Parliaments of the EU Member States already ratified the Association Agreement between the EU and Moldova, during only one year…

Valeriu Vasilică, IPN