Moldova’s economy is in recession and forecasts show that a modest growth of up to 2% will be recorded by the end of this year, said economic expert Victor Ciobanu. According to him, a slight economic growth will be seen due to agricultural production as the harvesting period started. The economic model of Moldova is detrimental as the country “exports” citizens and imports goods, IPN reports.
The expert said that Moldova’s economy is in recession, which is production and investments have decreased and there is a general decline in economic activities.
“Officially, we are in recession. During a series of consecutive quarters, we have had negative economic growth. Until now we could invoke such excuses as the pandemic and the war about which we had spoken throughout last year. But in 2023, we see that the countries of the region, of the European Union recover and follow an economic growth trajectory. In our country, the situation is paradoxical. According to statistics, in the first quarter we had a 2.4% decline. Experts of the Ministry of Economy said that the growth in the second quarter was also negative. Everyone forecast, including the IMF, that we will have +2% towards the yearend,” Victor Ciorbanu stated in the program “Reflection Points” on Vocea Basarabiei channel.
According to the economic expert, Moldova’s economy will be given a slight impulse this autumn as the farmers started the harvest and are to sell their products. Also, the money sent home by the diaspora keeps the country’s economy afloat.
“Traditionally, when the harvesting period comes, we help the economy to break the impasse and bring a very modest plus. But the forecasts here are also not very optimistic. The farmers say the harvest is good, but the prices are very low. The bad side is that we consume much more than we produce. Data show that trade deficit for the past five months is of almost US$2 billion. We produce not much. Exports declined by 8%. Our model amounts to the export of Moldovans and the import of goods. There is the diaspora that consists of about 1 million people and the money that these send home helps Moldova’s economy to stay afloat. But these remittances of US$2 billion that come to the county, if we divide the amount to the 2 million population, means by US$1,000 a year, which is less than US$100 dollars a month per person and this is only money for personal expenses,” stated Victor Ciobanu.
Experts of the International Monetary Fund forecast that Moldova’s economy will grow by 2% in 2023 and by 4.3% in 2024. The annual average inflation rate in Moldova this year will be 13.8%, while next year - 5%.
