IPN analysis: While the ‘velvet revolution‘ announced by the Moldovan opposition took a technical break or a break for a general rehearsal, similar processes started in the Autonomous Territorial Unit of Gagauzia. At first sight, it looks that the regional conflict of the local politicians may become a general Moldovan confrontation that can influence the results of the future parliamentary elections. 

Birthday ‘present’

The heads of the field organization of the Democratic Party (PDM) mounted a protest in Comrat last week, on a day that is a bank day in the region. They sought the dismissal of the Governor of Gagauzia Mihail Formuzal. Several hundred people, who came together before the head office of the Executive Committee of the People’s Assembly, accused the Governor of not implementing the decisions of the People’s Assembly of Gagauzia and of appropriating humanitarian assistance offered in the form of grain and diesel fuel and the region’s budget. The head of Vulcanesti district Serghei Cerev, who is an activist of the PDM, called on the country’s administration to react to the given irregularities. “The Government, the President and the Head of Parliament must pay attention to such things. This person should be jailed,” he stated. Formuzal, who celebrated his 54th birthday that day, was at his workplace and, half an hour after the protest started, went out to talk to the people. In response to the accusations made against him, he urged his opponents to go to the prosecutor’s office or the anticorruption center if they have proofs, but not to manipulate the people. However, a longer dialogue was impossible as, after the words “the Democrats lie to the participants in the protest”, Formuzal returned to his office, with the protesters whistling at him.

Déjà vu

The protesters referred to a large batch of grain and diesel fuel that Russia offered free to Gagauzia several years ago. Indeed, only the prosecutor’s office can establish the guiltiness degree in this case. Even if this institution is politicized, there is no other legal body that would prove or refute the accusations made by the Gagauz opposition. Even if the appropriation of humanitarian assistance has been used by the local opposition forces in their protests for several years, it does not represent the subject of an investigation by the competent bodies.
 
Following the current conflict between the Gagauz power and opposition as regards the humanitarian assistance, we should draw a parallel with the year 2002, when the Communists, who came then to power in the country, accused the then Governor of Gagauzia Dmitri Croitor of stealing the 5,000 tonnes of diesel fuel provided by Turkey. Croitor yielded to the pressure exerted by the Communist Party and tendered his resignation. The early elections for Governor were won by the Communists’ representative Gheorghi Tabunshchik. As to the former Governor, he went directly to … not to jail, but to Switzerland, as Moldova’s ambassador there. The topic of the humanitarian assistance hasn’t been raised since then.

A too ‘heavy’ impeachment

By his behavior, Formuzal makes it clear that his voluntary resignation is out of question. That’s why the only legal method of dismissing him is to adopt a relevant initiative by the votes of two thirds of the members of the People’s Assembly of Gagauzia. However, the performing of this procedure in full compliance with the law can transform the idea of dismissal into a difficult and long-lasting act. First of all, the legislation of Gagauzia provides that the term in office of the Governor can end before time when there are well-founded reasons, as for example the violation of the Constitution of Moldova or of the local Constitution and of other laws, confirmed by a court decision. Secondly, after the deputies back this initiative, a referendum is to be held in the region where the inhabitants should state their viewpoints on the matter. The difficulties that the initiators of the impeachment can face at this stage include the securing of the support of the majority of the participants in the referendum and the ensuring of a voter turnout of 50%, which is needed for the plebiscite results to be validated.

It’s hard to say whether the Gagauz opposition will resort to such a difficult procedure only one year before the end of Formuzal’s term in office. In other words, the revolution started by the Democrats with the aim of removing the Gagauz leader will continue as an ordinary long-lasting political war.

Following Mocanu’s steps

Formuzal promised to give a news conference in Chisinau on November 13 and announce who was behind the actions taken in Comrat against the Governor and who really destabilizes the situation in Gagauzia. The selection of the place of the meeting with the journalists is symbolic. Holding tenure as Governor of Gagauzia during the last year, Formuzal became involved in the conflict with the Democratic Party rather as the leader of the Party of Regions. His main opponent was earlier considered the mayor of Comrat Nicolai Dudoglo. Now it seems that this place will be taken by the Democrat Marian Lupu, who has a higher rank.

Sergiu Mocanu, the known critic of the PDM and its ‘financial’ leader Vladimir Plahotniuc, by his revelations considerably influenced not only the rating of the Democratic Party, but also the political processes in the country to a certain extent. Given that Mihail Formuzal, when making statements, is able to make reference not only to anonymous sources, but also to his own work experience, the society’s increased attention to the future scandals is guaranteed.

Golden percentage

Regardless of the wish of the sides involved in the confrontation, this conflict becomes a part of the initiated campaign that precedes the parliamentary elections. It is important to understand the particularities of the Gagauz voters. Their loyalty to the local political leaders prevails over the support for the national parties. Thus, a much more efficient solution for the Moldovan political forces is not to disseminate propaganda among the population, but to focus on the local political leaders who already have political capital.

Despite his mistakes, the current Governor continues to be among the most influential Gagauz politicians. In the first round of the last elections, Formuzal polled 22,000 votes. In the legislative elections of Moldova, this would be equal to about 1.5%. This is that precious percentage that the PDM and other parties can count on if having Formuzal as supporter or if removing him as a political rival.

We already know what a missing golden vote means as such a vote decided the destiny of a government coalition in Moldova’s Parliament. Given the polarization of Moldovan society, the repeat of such a scenario is more than possible. That’s why even one percentage point won in elections is very important. We should not forget this when we hear new calls for the dismissal of the Governor or new disclosures by the PDM.

Veaceslav Craciun, IPN