The situation in the Transnistrian region is an eloquent example of the geopolitical changes in Eastern Europe. Now, having been economically abandoned by Russia and facing internal crises, the region has a unique opportunity to redefine its future. The choice between the past dependent on Moscow and a more stable European perspective could change the balance of power in the region and pave the way for a historic reconciliation with the Republic of Moldova.
The Kremlin abandons separatist enclaves
The Russian Federation seems to be withdrawing its economic and political support for the separatist regimes it has supported for decades, including Transnistria, Abkhazia and Nagorno-Karabakh. The lack of gas and electricity in Transnistria is a signal of major change in Moscow's policy.
To better understand what the Transnistrian region can go through, it is enough to look at one of the most recent cases, that of Abkhazia – a separatist enclave in Georgia, also supported by the Kremlin.
After the authorities in Sukhumi (the capital of the self-proclaimed Republic of Abkhazia) refused to vote on an "investment agreement" with Russia, which untied the hands of the Russian big businesses – first of all in the construction of real estate on the warm coast of the Black Sea - Moscow reacted quickly and, according to the scenario known in the Republic of Moldova, limited the import of fruits and vegetables from Abkhazia. Thus, out of the blue, the Russian Phytosanitary Service (Rosselkhoznadzor) detected pests in the mandarins that Abkhazian farmers export to Russia.
A few days later, Moscow announced that it was suspending the sale of excursions to Abkhazia for tourists from Russia.
An energy crisis followed, due to the low water level at the Enguri hydropower plant. The hope of the authorities in Sukhumi for humanitarian aid from Russia were practically completely destroyed, Abkhazia's requests remaining unanswered. This energy collapse led to the closure of schools and kindergartens. People only receive electricity twice a day. The authorities in Sukhumi acknowledged that an answer to this problem could have been found quickly if Russia had not been upset by the refusal to sign that "investment agreement".
A year ago, Russia also betrayed Armenia, which led to the disappearance of Nagorno-Karabakh – a former separatist region of Azerbaijan, controlled by pro-Yerevan forces. This is what Russia did with its great ally in the Middle East – Syria. After being ousted from power, former Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad fled to Russia in the hope of receiving help from the Kremlin. But it wasn't meant to be. Recently, the head of the Foreign Ministry in Moscow, Sergei Lavrov, said that "one of the reasons for the deterioration of the situation was the incapacity of the former government to respond to the basic needs of the population in the context of the protracted civil conflict."
What will happen in the Transnistrian region?
The Transnistrian region, controlled by a regime supported by the Russian Federation for three decades, is facing an unprecedented crisis. Moscow seems to have reduced its economic support, leaving Transnistria without gas and electricity, and this decision reflects both the realities of the war in Ukraine and the changes in the Kremlin's priorities.
In this connection, the population of Transnistria has a historic chance to reconfigure its future, detaching itself from Russia's influence and getting closer to the Republic of Moldova and the European market.
Why is Moscow withdrawing its economic support?
The reduction of Russian support for the Transnistrian region is based on several reasons. The economic crisis in Russia, the war in Ukraine and international sanctions have put huge pressure on the budget. Resources are channeled towards military efforts and other strategic priorities, while satellite regimes, such as the one in the Transnistrian region, become an economic burden.
In recent years, the Transnistrian region has exported mostly to the European Union, thanks to the Free Trade Agreement (DCFTA) between the Republic of Moldova and the EU. This orientation contradicts Russia's strategic objectives, which sees the Transnistrian region as an instrument of influence in the region. Therefore, the Kremlin could perceive this economic rapprochement with the EU as a form of "betrayal" and choose to withdraw its support.
Another reason is geographical and military isolation. Stuck between Ukraine, a direct opponent of Russia, and the Republic of Moldova, the Transnistrian region has become increasingly difficult to access for the Kremlin. In the absence of a land corridor, sustaining the region becomes difficult and costly.
Consequences of Russian abandonment
The lack of gas and electricity in the cold season can have devastating consequences for the population of Transnistria. The region risks witnessing a significant deterioration in living conditions, which would amplify internal discontent. Political and social tensions, as well as economic instability can weaken the regime in Tiraspol, generating possible internal conflicts or even moves to come closer to Chisinau. There are already signs that the local population is losing confidence in Russia, especially in the context in which the European alternative seems increasingly attractive.
Under these conditions, Chisinau has the opportunity to provide humanitarian and economic aid to the Transnistrian region, strengthening the ties between the two banks of the Nistru. However, this strategy must be carefully managed to avoid the escalation of tensions.
In the face of the economic crisis and Russian abandonment, the population of the Transnistrian region is at a turning point. The reorientation to the European market through the Republic of Moldova offers real prospects for improving living conditions. In addition, economic and social integration with the EU could bring long-term benefits to the region. The essential question remains: will Transnistria have the courage to definitively break ties with Moscow? If Russia completely withdraws its support, and Chisinau and the EU offer viable alternatives, this change can become inevitable.
