IPN Analysis: As part of its 2014 recap series, IPN offers the readers a review of the main political events in the Gagauz autonomy that influenced or could later influence the whole country.

The “separatist” referendum

There are events that become symbolic landmarks dividing history in “before” and “after”. It seems that the referendum organized in Gagauzia on February 2 has become such an event for the relations between Comrat and Chisinau.

The Gagauz had to answer two questions: the orientation of the country's foreign policy and the region's right to self-determination in case Moldova loses its independence. The first question was more of a consultation: 98% of voters chose the Customs Union at the expense of the European Union. The local authorities then recommended the Moldovan leadership to “take note” of this result and consider it when deciding foreign policy matters.

The second question was a legislative one and 96% of voters said that Gagauzia should have the right to self-determination. For the Gagauz lawmakers, this is a legal basis to proclaim the region's independence should Moldova lose its sovereignty.

The Moldovan leadership and most of the Moldovan politicians have criticized the actions of the Gagauz authorities and labeled the organization of the referendum as illegal. Obviously, the courts had a similar stance and declared illegal the decision of the People's Assembly to hold the referendum. Moreover, the prosecutors initiated an investigation against the Gagauz dignitaries who participated in the organization of the referendum. Some of them have been summoned for hearings in Chisinau. However, there aren't any sentences yet in any of these files.

The Gagauz representatives, in turn, insist that they haven't violated the law. For them, the referendum is “a supreme form of democratic manifestation” and similar ballot is necessary for the whole country in order to put an end to the endless debates about the country's direction of development.

It's noteworthy that Russia's attention towards Gagauzia suddenly increased after February 2. The monthly trips of Gagauz delegations to Moscow, the words of support from important Russian dignitaries and many other signals indicated clearly, according to political analysts, that the Kremlin saw Gagauzia as a mechanism to influence Chisinau. A strong argument in favor of this view was Russia's decision to lift the embargo on wine for some Gagauz winemakers.

Rospotrebnadzor “separates” Gagauzia

Russia embargoed Moldovan wines in September 2013 and this has become a difficult trial for the local winemakers. In March 2014, just a month after the Gagauz referendum, Rospotrebnadzor - Russian's Federal Service for Supervision of Consumer Rights Protection and Human Well-Being — announced that the embargo was lifted for the companies “Vina Comrata”, “Tomai Vinex”, “Kazaik Vin”, “Invinprom” and “Vinaria Bostavan”. Of course, no documents of the Russian sanitary services didn't mention Gagauzia, but by “pure coincidence” all these winemakers are based in Gagauzia.

The major Moldovan politicians slammed Russia's actions. According to former Prime Minister and PLDM leader Vlad Filat, Russia just reconfirmed the political nature of the embargo. PDM leader Marian Lupu accused Russia of “violating the principles of mutual respect in international relations”.

Nonetheless, the Gagauz leadership have rejected the connection, obvious to some, between the referendum and the Rospotrebnadzor decision. According to bashkhan Mihail Formuzal, the negotiations to lift the ban on Gagauz wines had been underway since the beginning of the embargo. The Gagauz leader said that similar results weren't achieved for the rest of Moldovan winemakers because of the Ministry of Agriculture's lack of insistence, whose leadership are to blame for the stalling of negotiations on this matter.

It must be considered, in spite of the numerous news stories claiming that “Rospotrebnadzor separated Gagauzia from Moldova”, that the embargo is still on for more than half of the winemakers in the region. For many of the Gagauz winemakers, just like for their Moldovan colleagues, this crisis has acted as a stimulus to find new markets in order to diversify exports.

The “extremism” investigation

The topic of Gagauz “extremism”, whether it was about real cases or mere speculation, has always been popular in the media. In 2014, for the first time, it actually materialized into an investigation and several charges.

Last summer, the Moldovan special services arrested four people from Comrat – Veaceslav Boikov, Dmitri Kuznetsov, Vasili Mavrodi and Viktor Urum – on suspicion of “treason of motherland, terrorism, separatism and membership in illegal extremist groups”. According to SIS data, they had been trained in a military camp in Rostov, Russia, where they learned to shoot various guns, to provide medical care, and were trained in field and urban military tactics. The key finding of the investigation and the main accusation is that they were to apply this knowledge against Moldova's integrity and sovereignty. Mavrodi and Urum have already been sentenced to 5 years, while the investigation against Boikov and Kuznetsov is still underway.

Another man from Comrat, Anatoli Kara, was accused of helping the recruitment of several of his co-nationals. It should be noted that Kara is the head of the youth and sports division within Gagauzia's Executive Committee. He has been announced as wanted internationally and, according to some information, is currently in Russia.

The investigation against the “Gagauz extremists” has been regarded in Gagauzia as a political one from the very beginning. The subject was exploited and inflated during the electoral campaign by local politicians as “Chisinau's attempt to undermine the pro-East vector by undermining the Gagauz autonomy”. The accusations have continued even after the parliamentary ballot on November 30. A series of protests have been organized in support of the arrested Gagauz. Meanwhile, local political and civil society organizations and the members of the People's Assembly have issued an open letter asking President Nicolae Timofti to release the young men. It's noteworthy that even local representatives of PLDM and PDM joined the call.

“The pink belt”

The last important event of the year in the autonomy has been the parliamentary election. The shocking result of the ballot – the Socialists winning the most votes – has been fully reflected in the autonomous region. PSRM obtained 57% of votes, a result that is sure to make it the most important political force in the region for years to come.

They are the favorites to win the election of the bashkhan, scheduled for March 2015. Even if they don't put forward a candidate from the party but support a formally independent candidate, it's likely that their choice will be the winner. This means that PSRM's influence in Moldova politics will continue to grow. If Gagauzia was previously a “red belt”, now it's a “pink belt”.

Another warning for Chisinau is the confirmation of the results of the “anti-European” referendum in February. The parties whose ideology and platform can be called conventionally “pro-East” obtained 80% of votes. The formula “Customs Union” works like a spell here and the Moldovan authorities should do something about it.

Veaceslav Craciun, IPN