This year, which is an electoral one in Moldova, we should not expect new parties or politicians to make a spectacular appearance on the political arena. However, the ruling parties can produce surprise, like new splits for example. But there can be also implemented such tactics as the revitalization of some right- or left-wing parties without chances in order to tear away votes from the opponents. Political analysts Ion Tabarta, Viorel Cibotaru and Corneliu Ciurea commented for IPN on the possible surprises in an electoral year.
No third forces are expected to emerge
Ion Tabarta said that the so-called third force does not come into view. “A number of attempts were made, but none of the parties succeeded. I think it’s rather improbable to witness electoral surprises from parties. Most probably, only the existing parties will struggle in elections. Three parties will definitely enter Parliament if nothing extraordinary happens – the Liberal Democratic Party (PLDM), the Democratic Party (PDM), and the Communist Party (PCRM),” said the analyst.
As regards the Liberal Party and the Liberal Reforming Party, Ion Tabarta said the first has an advantage in the person of Dorin Chirtoaca, who has political prospects that can bring electoral benefits to the party. But the Liberal Party is headed by Mihai Ghimpu, who is an eccentric and not very flexible politician. This is to the party’s detriment.
“The Liberal Reforming Party is nice, but does not have a leader who would serve as a driving force. The leader of the party counts a lot for the Moldovan voters and this is their specific feature. It’s less probable that both of the parties will enter Parliament. It’s logical for one of them to enter as there are united pro-Romanian voters in Moldova who will not disappear and will not support another party. As to the political left, there are many small parties on this segment and they will become more active, but none of them can tend to beat the Communists’ monopole,” said the analyst.
New politicians from the business sector
Several years ago, Moldova didn’t know about politician Vlad Plahotniuc. In order to see if new important politicians can appear on the political arena, Ion Tabarta suggests analyzing the situation to see what businessmen are now there in Moldova. There is Ion Sturza, about whom they say that he may reappear in politics, but he does not hurry up. Anatol Stati does not seem to be interested in politics. His son attempted, but was unsuccessful as an independent. “It’s highly improbable that Ilan Shor will actively become involved in politics. Renato Usatyi plays games and I don’t think how serious he can be taken. Surprises will come from parties that are now dead. They will be resuscitated and involved in the electoral struggle in order to take away votes from the electoral rivals,” said Ion Tabarta.
Viorel Cibotaru considers that anything can happen. There were enough examples in different regions of Europe, when parties appeared overnight and entered Parliament after the first campaign. After the 2009 elections, the government formed and changed on the way.
“The Moldova Noastra Alliance Party fell. Another party may fall. I don’t know what fate the Liberal Party will have. There are candidates for leaving the ‘battlefield’. There is no political vacuum and, if somebody leaves, somebody else may appear. As regards the left, any cataclysm in the Communist Party may help some of the political leaders who now do not have many chances. The third force exists and forms part of the parliamentary parties. This nucleus exists in the PLDM, PDM and PCRM. It may emerge if these parties become split,” said Viorel Cibotaru.
Effect of damaged relations
Corneliu Ciurea believes that a deterioration in relations between the PLDM and PDM may be a surprise. This will prevent them from coping with the elections. “We cannot expect great surprises as regard the appearance of new parties. Something may happen in the PCRM to endanger the situation, like the defection of members or problems among the party’s leaders,” he stated.
Another surprise may come from the EU, which can punish the government for certain inefficiencies. This will compromise ruling parties’ chances in elections. “More parties or political leaders can appear, but they will not have great chances in elections. I see no new important figures. The votes will be divided between the parties that enter Parliament traditionally,” said Corneliu Ciurea.
The analysts consider that the parties of the ruling alliance will not attack each other directly as they realize that after the elections they will have to most probably form an alliance again. They must understand that every time they argue, the Communists’ chances increase. The competition relations didn’t weaken, but they aren’t shown by the political players. They will be shown one way or another in the election campaign and the electoral competition will be more visible than the solidarity of parties.
The parlaiemntary elections are to take place between November 28, 2014 and February 28, 2015. Many say the elections should be held on November 30. The PDM announced its intention to change the electoral system into a joint one and asked for the opinion of the Venice Commission about this.
Mariana Galben, IPN
