IPN analysis: It is less than a month until the referendum on Moldova’s foreign policy course that will be held in the Autonomous Territorial Unit of Gagauzia. The initiators of this plebiscite say the Moldovan authorities are not obliged to take its results into account. However, some of the events show the country’s foreign vector will be subject to serious challenges.
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Gagauzia and Taraclia will ‘consult’ Chisinau

A referendum will take place in Gagauzia on February 2. Within it, the residents of the region will pronounce on Moldova’s foreign course and on the right of Gagauzia to separate itself from Moldova, if the country is no longer independent. In the first issue, the consultation of the population will be consultative in character, while in the second – legislative. In other words, the voters’ opinion as regards the union that Moldova should join – the European Union or the Customs one – will be presented to the country’s authorities as a sociological survey. But the referendum results concerning the hypothetic right of Gagauzia to gain independence will become a law on the region’s territory.

Wishing to find out the people’s opinion on the foreign policy course, the Gagauz found support in the majority Bulgarian population from the neighboring district Taraclia. Thus, in a meeting on December 26, the district council officially supported the given decision of the administration of Gagauzia and decided to hold a similar referendum in Taraclia the same day. The majority Communist faction voted in favor, while the councilors of the Liberal Democratic Party and the Democratic Party voted against.

The consultations that will take place in Taraclia district do not represent a proper referendum. At 10am on February 2, in all the settlements of the district there will take place meetings where the people will openly vote for or against Moldova joining the European Union or the Eurasian Union. The voting results will be adopted in a special meeting of the district council and will be sent to Parliament, the Government and the head of state.

Chisinau is against, but will not become involved

The Moldovan politicians, including the senior officials, made it clear that the official Chisinau does not welcome, euphemistically speaking, such ‘consultations’. According to the statements of Prime Minister Iurie Leanca, the formulation of the foreign policy is the exclusive prerogative of Chisinau. President Nicolae Timofti is sure that the administration of Gagauzia, which initiated the referendum, promotes external ideas. The president of honor of the Democratic Party Dumitru Diacov is convinced that the idea of the Gagauz authorities is doomed to failure as they will not manage to organize the plebiscite given that it runs counter to the Moldovan legislation.

Anyway, the process of preparing the referendum in Gagauzia goes on. The People’s Assembly of Gagauzia approved the composition of the Central Election Commission, which deals with the technical aspects of the problem. For its part, the Executive Committee allocated 60,000 lei for informing the population about the planned referendum. The money will be used to print different placards, posters and brochures that will be distributed to mayor’s offices.

Besides, there was created an initiative group involving representatives of the region’s administration, which will popularize the idea of the referendum. The group is headed by Valeri Ianioglo, first deputy assistant of the Governor of Gagauzia. According to his statements, the group includes representatives of all the settlements of the autonomous unit, who, together with members of the People’s Assembly and of the Executive Committee and with representatives of the local authorities, will go from home to home to discuss with the people and will hold meetings with voters.

It should be noted that despite the negative attitude of the central administration, the Moldovan law enforcement bodies do not intend to hinder the holding of the referendum. This matter was examined in the last meeting of the People’s Assembly of Gagauzia, which was attended by Mihail Jelezoglo, who heads the Security and Information Service Division for Gagauzia. He answered a question put by the deputies, saying the institution gave no instructions to hamper the holding of the plebiscite.

For the special attention of Russia

Gagauzia and the district of Taraclia are known for their pro-Russia states of spirit. That’s why, if the referendum takes place, its results will surprise nobody. The residents will vote for the integration into the East also following the new rules concerning the stay of foreigners on Russia’s territory, which came into force on January 1, 2014. Thus, a foreign citizen will not be able to stay in Russia for more than 90 days cumulatively during 180 days. Though the new restrictions apply also to the residents of other countries of the Customs Union, the people in Gagauzia erroneously believe that Moldova’s integration into this union will enable them to freely travel to Russia, which means that they will also be able to earn money in Russia.

Another real argument in favor of joining the Custom Union can be the possibility of reducing the price of natural gas supplied to Moldova. Russia announced such a decision in relation to Armenia and Ukraine last year, after the governments of the two countries set a number of foreign policy priorities advantageous for the Kremlin. All these things became a powerful publicity campaign in favor of the Customs Union, which exerted certain influence on the inhabitants of Gagauzia and on many people from other regions of Moldova. That’s why, if Moscow counts on the prospect of Moldova joining the Customs Union, the referendum in Gagauzia can become a good occasion for taking active steps in this direction.

While the Moldovan authorities assess the Gagauz initiative partially critically, partially skeptically, Russia already made it clear that the actions of the administrations of Gagauzia and of Taraclia district will be supported through the agency of its Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary in Chisinau Farit Muhametshin. In his New Year message to the residents of the region, the diplomat promised that he will pay special attention to the southern districts in 2014 as they are an example to be followed by other districts of Moldova.

If these words represent only diplomatic reverence for the residents of the southern districts and a transparent allusion to the official Chisinau, the European integration course that the Moldovan administration named without alternative over the last few years will be subject to serious tests, including attempts to make it illegal. The referendum in Gagauzia can represent the beginning of such events.

Veaceslav Craciun, IPN