Six parties have chances of entering Parliament after the November 30 parliamentary elections, according to the Public Opinion Barometer for November 2014 commissioned by the Institute of Public Policy (IPP). Thus, the PCRM would poll 21% of the votes of the persons who expressed an electoral option, the PLDM – 21%, the PDM – 18%, the Political Party “Patria” – 12%, while the PL and PSRM – by 10%, IPN reports.
According to the IPP executive director Arcadie Barbarosie, this percentage applies to the decided respondents, who represent 66% of all the respondents. The undecided respondents were asked to indicate 2-3 parties from among which they would chose one. Thus, the PDM and PLDM could win by up to 13% of the votes of the undecided electors, the PPP – 11%, the PSRM – 8%, while the PL – 7%.
Analyzing the trends shown by other surveys, the electoral developments the previous years, the opinions of experts and other factors, the IPP worked out a model for simulating the election outcome. According to this model, the PCRM would get 30 seats of MP, the PLDM – 23 or 24 seats, the PDM – 14 or 15 seats, the PPP – 13 or 14 seats, while the PSRM and PL – by 10-11 seats. Therefore, Arcadie Barbarosie anticipates that it will be hard to form a pro-Europa coalition in the current format or in the format of the Alliance for European Integration.
As regards the confidence in politicians, 42% of those polled said they have certain or a lot of confidence in Iurie Leanca, 35% trust Dorin Chirtoaca, 33% - Marian Lupu, by 31% - Vladimir Voronin and Renato Usatyi. Asked who they would vote for as head of state if the President was elected directly by the people, 11% answered - Vladimir Voronin, 9% - Marian Lupu, 8% - Renato Usatyi, 7% - Iurie Leanca, 5% - Vlad Filat and by 3% - Igor Dodon and Dorin Chirtoaca.
As to the country’s foreign development course, if a referendum on joining the Customs Union was held next Sunday, 47% of those surveyed would vote for, 29% would vote against, while the rest do not know. If a referendum on joining the European Union was held, 44% would vote for, while 35% would vote against. If they were asked to choose between the two options, 39% would choose the EU, while 43% - the Customs Union.
The poll was carried out between October 26 and November 13 and covered a sample of 1,109 people older than 18 from 84 settlements, except for the diaspora and the Transnistrians region. The survey was conducted by the Center of Sociological, Politological and Psychological Analysis and Investigations CIVIS and was financed by Soros Foundation Moldova.
