Russian President Vladimir Putin can cause a humanitarian catastrophe on the left bank of the Nistru and the constitutional authorities in Chisinau must manage this situation, energy security expert Sergiu Tofilat stated in a public debate hosted by IPN News Agency. According to him, the scenario according to which Russia will no longer deliver gas to the Transnistrian region and the official Chisinau will have to provide support to the population on the left bank of the Nistru should be taken into account.
Energy security expert Sergiu Tofilat does not rule out the scenario according to which the supply of gas to the Transnistrian region could be stopped on January 1, 2025. According to him, this measure could have significant consequences for the economy and stability of the region, which is totally dependent on Russian gas for industry and household consumption.
"Until recently, I was sure that Putin would not cede the Transnistrian region. Now I do not exclude the fact that he is ready to let the people on the left bank of the Nistru freeze in order to destabilize the situation ahead of the parliamentary elections in the Republic of Moldova. We saw how dozens of cities in Russia last winter were freezing because the heating systems were destroyed as no investment had been made in them for decades. Putin does not care if the people on the left bank of the Nistru freeze. For him, what is important is to destabilize the situation and try to blame the authorities in Chisinau. Gazprom has all the conditions to continue the delivery of gas to the left bank through Turkey. All they have to do is reserve the gas pipelines through Turkey, Bulgaria, Romania and bring gas. Under the existing contract, Gazprom must bring the gas to the border with the Republic of Moldova. This is their obligation," said Sergiu Tofilat.
The expert noted that the interruption in the supply of Russian gas will also have negative consequences for the right bank of the Nistru. In order to ensure a sufficient volume of electricity, the authorities of the Republic of Moldova will have to purchase electricity from the international market, at a much higher price than the price offered today by the Kuchurgan power plant.
"The right bank has been buying gas from European traders for two years now. Last year, by buying gas from the traders, we managed to save US$60 million, against the price from Gazprom. The myth that gas from Gazprom is cheaper is false. As regards the supply of gas to the right bank, we are perfectly ok. The fact that Moldovagaz could not buy gas in summer to store it is another problem. We must learn this lesson and prepare for next year. As for electricity, things are more complicated. We generate about 20% of consumption internally. The rest we have to import. We have the Kuchurgan plant that works on Russian gas provided free of charge or we have to buy from Romania. The second option became much more difficult after Putin's military aggression. Putin has destroyed most of the power plants in Ukraine and they are forced to import electricity from Romania. Respectively, a shortage of energy appeared in Romania and prices have risen a lot. Romania alone is forced to import from neighboring countries. The Balkan countries also witness a shortage of electricity and prices there have risen. It becomes feasible to bring gas to the Kuchurgan power plant for this to produce electricity," explained Sergiu Tofilat.
According to him, the situation in the Transnistrian region is sensitive and an eventual cessation of Russian natural gas supplies could trigger a real humanitarian crisis. If the constitutional authorities in Chisinau will effectively manage the crisis in the region, preconditions for the peaceful reunification of the Republic of Moldova could be created.
"The left bank of the Nistru survives exclusively thanks to the gas that comes for free from the Russian Federation. The gas comes for free; they produce electricity with it or produce metal, export it and the money comes into the budget. With this money, they pay pensions. Gas and energy reach the population almost free of charge. Without gas they will have neither heat nor the possibility to produce electricity. There will be a budget deficit. Clearly, it will be a humanitarian catastrophe. Not overnight as they will resist for a month or two. The bad thing is that Putin can cause there a humanitarian catastrophe that we will have to manage. But the good thing is that this situation opens up the possibility for the reunification of the Republic of Moldova and the peaceful settlement of the Transnistrian conflict. However, for the purpose we must cooperate with the development partners," said the expert.
The public debate entitled "Gas for the Transnistrian region as a national security issue" was staged as part of the series of debates "Developing political culture through public debates". IPN Agency implements this project with support from the German Hanns Seidel Foundation.
