The Republic of Moldova should use advanced scientific technology based on evidence in monitoring the election campaign and the whole electoral process. Many states broadly use such technology that enables to ensure better comprehension of the electoral processes, said Sergiu Ostaf, director of the Resource Center for Human Rights (CReDO). The Center is carrying out a study of the campaign prior to the February 24 parliamentary elections based on statistical correlations of the vote, analysis of administrative resources, electoral finances, etc.
At a news conference at IPN, Sergiu Ostaf said the Center in the process uses methods that have never been applied before in Moldova, like the distribution of the vote percentage by polling places, the analysis of the probability of exact numerical values. “There is a recommendation of the Venn nice Commission, saying the countries should undertake these scientific methods to analyze the correctness of the vote,” stated the CReDO director.
The calculation of the correlation between participation in elections and vote, using regression, and the identification of anomalies that appear at some of the polling places are among the used methods. The estimation of the influence of anomalies on the vote, which is how many deviations are witnessed in the final vote, is a widely used method, not yet in Moldova.
“The statistical methods describe the behavior of large groups of people. The efforts to monitor the behavior of a person or several persons, for example, are valuable, but these do not manage to capture the general picture of the electoral process. The statistical methods also create a general picture, in particular regions, generally in the country or at a particular polling place with a particular vulnerable character, with anomalies,” said the CReDO director. Even if these methods are not absolute, they create value added and offer an additional view to other efforts.
The monitoring authors will also analyze the impact of the reform of the electoral finances on transparency and reduction of undeclared costs. There will be studied the evolution of the structure of donors and the value of their contrition, including in comparison with other countries.
The CReDO will present a preliminary report before the announcement of the election results and will later make public a general report that will contain conclusions and recommendations for the Central Election Commission, the Broadcasting Coordination Council, the Constitutional Court and other public institutions.
