IPN analysis: One of the great battles fought in Moldova and for Moldova, but also in the region on the whole, refers to the Russian World project. For several years, this project has been in competition with another project named conventionally the European World. What does each of them bring to the Moldovan people and what choice will they make in the future legislative elections?
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The rapid and apparently unpredictable developments in the region of coexistence of Moldova, including the ‘mystical’ downing of the Malayan Boeing flying over Donetsk, reveal a major goal that has been pursued for a long period, though it was officially formulated only recently. The goal is called the Russian World and all the other projects that came earlier from the same area, including the Commonwealth of Independent States, the Russia – Belarus Union, the Customs Union and the Eurasian Economic Union, seem to represent means used to create this Russian World. In fact, this notion replaces and radically modifies the meaning of the notion of ‘sphere of influence of Russia” and this new significance provokes much more concerns and fears than the previous one.

The conclusion concerning the real goal is based for now on two types of arguments:

One: All the projects announced before the Russian World failed or existed only at the level of announced intention and this means that not a too high price was put on them. For their part, the reasons for this state of affairs can be again divided into two: either there was no will and capacity or there was actually pursued another goal – the Russian World – with the previous name ‘sphere of influence of Russia’.

Two: The war in Ukraine, besides other depictions, can be also described as the concentrated expression of the relations between the former Soviet republics at the current stage, including, and, especially, between two very great players of these relations – Russia and Ukraine. In this very unusual situation, none of the aforementioned projects manifests itself at least formally, except for the Russian World. Mainly owing to this idea that was formulated publicly by the Russian authorities, amplified by the mass media and adopted by most of the politicians, opinion leaders and the population as well as by a part of the Russian speakers from other countries, a real war is taking place in Ukraine, which kills thousands of people and leaves hundreds of thousands without shelter. Compared with the previous cooperation projects of the former Soviet republics, Russia shows a special interest in this case, forcing limits that not even it could force until now. 

What is the Russian World and what does it mean for the Moldovan people in particular?

We will not use quotations and theoretical expressions because any thing is ultimately only what it is in the people’s perception. Thus, both the supporters and opponents of the Russian World also accept this idea that is based on the recognition/imposition of the superiority/exclusiveness of a human collective entity in relation to the others, especially from spiritual, moral and linguistic viewpoints. Earlier, it was considered that this entity consists of persons of Russian ethnicity. Afterward, that it incorporated all the persons whose native language is Russian. But in the recent past it was extended to cover all the persons speaking Russian, regardless of the country where they live. Anyway, the Russian World wants to be an attractive project whose power resides in affiliation to a powerful and influential community in the contemporary world. The greater its size, the more powerful and influential it is.

Moldova had and continues to have offers to join the Russian World. Any country and any nation would feel flattered, if it held interest for great geopolitical projects. The Republic of Moldova hasn’t accepted the invitation officially even if it’s already 23 years of its constitution, but it was often close to giving an affirmative answer in its permanent oscillations. It didn’t do it even when the power in the country was held by the most powerful pro-Russian political force in Moldova – the Communist Party. This is due to at least two external reasons, besides the many internal ones.

One: The invitations were most of the times harsh and even violent and didn’t allow Moldova to show at least apparently that it makes the choice by itself, as an independent country. A relevant example is the direct military, political, economic and financial support provided to the separatist regime in the eastern districts, from its first manifestations until now. During this period, Moscow treated the separatist regime as a knot on Moldova’s neck that was to secure its movement towards the ‘stable’ of the Russian World. Eventually, the so-called Kozak Memorandum pursued the same goal, as the series of bans and the economic pressure exerted after this plan failed did.

It can be assumed that a new round of ‘invitations’ was launched by the visit to Moldova by Russian Patriarch Kirill last September. He came to Chisinau with the spiritual justification why the Moldovans should join the Russian World, through the angle of the religious community. But, in less than two days of that visit, the Russian administration imposed a total ban on the import of Moldovan wine, which continues today and, as it seems, will never be lifted, if we do not agree to go to the mentioned ‘stable’. The experience of the Moldovan-Russian political relations clearly shows that the use of double mechanisms wasn’t accidental or an incident that Russia is ready to regret. A proof is the behavior of the Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin in that period, which can be considered appropriate only if we admit that he serves the same Russian World project to which the independent state Moldova must be made a party willingly or unwillingly.

Two: The invitation implied that Moldova could form part of the Russian World only, once and for all, and could not take part in ‘other worlds’ and didn’t have the right to its won ‘world’ – the Moldovan one. Until recently, Moldova had the fate of a submarine convict that can escape only to the Russian World, but now the situation has changed. Moldova obtained an alternative, which is the European Union. Thus, Moldova realized that there are also other ‘worlds’ in the world beside the Russian World, where they live better in fact. Moldova actually repeatedly expressed readiness to form part both of the Russian World and of the ‘European World’, but Russia is categorically against. From the day the Association Agreement with the EU was ratified, the real threats, restrictions and bans seriously affected the Moldovans, including those working in Russia.

The Russian World and the ‘European World’

The extent of the pressure exerted unilaterally and by defying the bilateral and multilateral agreements can cause the ruination of the Moldovan economy with all the inevitable social consequences. There were destroyed the Moldovan-Russian economic relations, without which the continuation of the other types of civilized relations, including political, social and cultural, is practically impossible. From now on, the Russian authorities would probably maintain the relations and all kinds of support only for the political forces from inside Moldova, which, according to them, can win this autumn’s elections and would thus denounce the Association Agreement and would compromise Moldova’s European course. The situation in Ukraine, which preferred the ‘European World’ to the Russian World shows how far Russia can go with this support.

The notion ‘European World’ was taken in inverted comas because it does not exist in reality and nobody uses it. In the context of the present theme, it means the whole range of values on which it is based and which are used by the European community in its organizational form – the European Union. Based on this artificial notion, we can better understand the essence of the Russian World as an official notion and the radical differences between these two worlds.

Let’s yet return to the meaning of the Russian World and the exclusiveness of this collective entity that is based on common language, religions, history, tradition, mentality and other spiritual traits that groups the people according to extra-territorial and extra-state principles. The criteria of affiliation to the Russian World mentioned above generate sufficient analogies with well-known doctrines from the period of World War II. But, as the supporters of these doctrines would become sincerely and profoundly indignant if we admit that they sympathize with fascism and Nazism, we will not treat these characteristics as mandatory.

At the same time, we cannot say that the Russian World cares for the people’s wellbeing and decent living conditions because is says nothing about these and because it didn’t ensure them and does not show how it can ensure them in the future. At the same time, the ‘European World’ during many decades has said, done and showed that it lays emphasis on the people’s welfare. The Russian World says nothing about equitable justice and the fight against corruption for the reason that it didn’t ensure and is unable to ensure them. The ‘European World’ invites the Moldovans to this world and gives them advice and money for this. Is someone as blind or insincere as not to see the form and content differences in the invitations of these two ‘worlds’?

Other crucial differences: the ‘European World’ learned the lesson of World War II and since then the people’s lives and peace of the peoples of this ‘world’ are the greatest values of all the values. The ‘Russian World’ (on which the ‘Soviet World’ was mainly based) had no decade without wars the last century and this century. Transnistria, Chechnya, Ossetia, Abkhazia, and Ukraine are the last examples showing how appropriate they were as instruments for building the ‘Russian World’.   

Motives and goals of the Romania-phobia in Moldova

By the ‘invitation’ to the ‘Russian World’, Moldova is denied the right to form part of the ‘Romanian World’ (which is also a conventional notion), but this is a natural inclination of a large part of Moldova’s population. Only considered though the angle of the ‘Russian World’ do the motives, roots and goals of this massive and irrational Romania-phobia, promoted by interested forces from inside and outside the country, become clear. There is nothing more natural than the wish of the blood-related people to tend to have good relations and a common universe or ‘world’. Normally, this should not represent an obstacle to forming part of other worlds concomitantly. If believing the architects of the discussed project, these are the feelings put at the foundation of the Russian World, but not everyone is allowed to have them.

It turns out that the Romania-phobia planted carefully in Moldova has also mathematical explanations. Thus, it is more convenient to convince almost 4 million Moldovans that they have the same historical, linguistic and cultural roots as the ‘brothers’ from over the Prut River, because, without these roots, it’s simpler to persuade them that, alone, they will become lost in this world, that their mother world is the Russian World. And surely they become lost face to face with the 143 million of the Russian World of the Russian Federation. Instead, the 4 million Moldovans, together with the over 21 million Romanians, could create at least a ‘Romanian mini-world’ of over 25 million. With 25 million one can easier defend their interests in front of the 143 million. But, if the 4 million Moldovans, together with the over 21 million Romanians, join the ‘European World’ with over 550 million people and with economic potential that is incomparable with that of the Russian World, the balance of the 4 million Moldovans’ capacity to defend their interests in the relations with the over 143 million would incline to another part than until now.

In fact, we should also add about 40 million Ukrainians lost for good by the Russian World, which is imposed by a phantom called “Novorossia” (“New Russia”), to the about 555 million people of the ‘European World’. Therefore, there will be 143 million people of the Russian World versus about 600 million people of the ‘European World’. Thus, another 4 million Moldovans, on condition that they obligatorily hate the Romanians, would count for a Russian World that wants to be greater, powerful, influential and respected.

The Russian World and the ‘Moldovan World’

In another development, the Russian World represents a cardinal obstacle to building an internal, “Moldovan’ world of the Republic of Moldova. Being a very new state, it does not have chances to strengthen itself if it does not overcome the people’s division according to ethnic, linguistic, cultural, ideological, territorial and other criteria, with the subsequent formation of a civic nation homogenous at least to a small extent. This goal is unachievable until a part of the people consider that their real motherland is a another one and they, de facto, live in a virtual world of the Russian World or rather of the ‘Soviet World’ that is already dead, but sufficiently close as content.

Thus, taking into account the abovementioned things and the things that will be yet said, Moldova and the Moldovans are yet to decide which their favorable world is. They will have a powerful say in the November 30 legislative elections that will mean not only the election of a new government, but also the confirmation or change of the ‘world’ in which they would like to live.

Position of the authorities, society and political class

Until then, let’s see how the authorities, society and the political class of Moldova could answer the ‘invitations’ coming from the Russian World.

They will answer according to their viewpoint and how they understand the situation and to the state of spirit that dominates the section they represent.

The authorities are trying to behave rather calmly, even if it’s hot outside and in the country, without leavening much room for provocations, and in a sufficiently balanced way so as not to offer pretexts for being accused of destabilizing the already tense situation. The internal and external opponents are waiting impartially for this. It is a rather appropriate behavior in a force majeure situation. As a matter of fact, the authorities are the only ones that, by their legality and legitimacy, fully represent society, while in society there are different approaches and positions on the interests related to the external orientation of the country.

For its part, society is rather divided in this respect. A part clearly declines the ‘invitations’ of the Russian World, others accept them, while the third oscillate between the two sides. It probably happens so because Moldovan society comes from where it comes and probably because the people were unable to know closer other worlds except for the Russian World and thus to compare their plusses and minuses. In general, it is a rather natural reaction for Moldovan society in its current state, which is to be taken account of and which every political force tends to attract and to modify in its favor.

In politics everything is as it was, with one exception

The political class also behaves rather traditionally and predictably because it also represents certain sections of society. Therefore, the options vary between categorically against orientation to the Russian World (the Liberal Reformist Party, the Liberal Party, the Green Ecologist Party, the National Liberal Party, the Movement “Antimafie”, etc.), categorically in favor (the Communist Party, the Party of Socialists, etc.), and the so-called ‘mixed option’, which is both the Russian World and the ‘European World’, supported especially by the Democratic Party, the People’s Party, etc. There is nothing new in politics, with only one significant exception.

It seems that the Liberal Democratic Party, which holds most of the seats in the Cabinet and Parliament among the parties of the pro-European government coalition, changed its position radically from a ‘mixed’ one, similar in a way to that of the Democratic Party and the current position of the central authorities, to another one. Now the PLDM is unequivocally for the “European World’, even for the ‘North-Atlantic World’, and the metamorphosis occurred in a rather short period of time. Last September, the leader of the PLDM Vlad Filat sponsored the visit to Moldova of Patriarch Kirill, whose mission we already described. Not long ago, the political opponents described Vlad Filat as ‘Moscow’s hand’, including because he wore the watch on the right wrist, as the Russian leader Vladimir Putin. At the end of last year already, Filat presented himself officially at the Madain in Kiev. He most likely realized that this thing would be penalized by Moscow. Also, two months ago he said in Washington that Moldova needs to establish closer relations with the NATO and such a thing would definitely not be forgiven by Moscow.

Such a metamorphosis can have a number of reasons:

One: The leader of the PLDM is no longer Prime Minister and holds no official post in the state. This spares him of the obligation to be as prudent as possible. He now must take into account the expectations of the supporters voting for them. Most probably, the party’s internal polls show that the number of supporters of the Russian World decreased in favor of the supporters of the “European World’ and, eventually, of those who would accept the ‘American World’ or even the ‘North-Atlantic World’. Otherwise, the given behavior would pose significant threats to the party and its leader.

Two: The war in Ukraine, which is very close to Moldova that faces similar dangers, represents an extraordinary situation that needs solutions of the same level. Does somebody know other remedies that can be used to defend oneself from ‘Moscow that does not believe in tears’ than a comparable or more powerful ally? This way or another, in a recent radio program Filat expressed his conviction, and made effort to convince others, that one should fight for freedom and that freedom does not mean only benefits, but also sacrifices, “that we tried to be good and now have a separatist region, are humiliated and fully dependent…”.

Three: There may be also a more personal reason of the leader of the PLDM. He more often speaks about a massive denigration campaign aimed against him and his party, which is ‘very costly’. Those who follow the media and the events would think that he is right. As he does not openly say which those interested forces are, we can think about two possible scenarios, separate or simultaneous. The organizers of the campaign are from inside the country, and such are not many to be counted, or from outside it and there is only one force interested in this. A part of the reasons were stated above.

The Russian Would and Russian culture

Normally, the Russian World project should not be confused with the Russian culture that is indeed great and valuable. Most of the Moldovans know it and appreciate it. But this is because the Moldovans know less or do not know at all other great cultures of the world, or even they don’t know so well the own culture and language. This is also a reminiscence of the long being under the exclusive influence of the Russian World. There is a lot to be recovered in this respect, but we must not lose the values we already have.

We must yet take into account that this aggressive phase of promoting the Russian World, faced by the neighboring Ukraine, is possible also due to the support of an important part of the people of culture of Russia, whom the Moldovans also knew and appreciated. There is a long list of personalities from the field of culture who immediately and unanimously approved of Putin’s policy aimed at annexing Crimea. Some of them found themselves shortly in the list of laureates of the State Prize of the Russian Federation. One of the awarded singers even ended his speech this way „…and I also love our President Vladimir Putin”.

It’s true that the list is long, but it is insufficient for influencing the general atmosphere in the country. There are not many personalities ready to criticize the authorities for the acts aimed against the Ukrainian people, even in the name of the Russian World, not because they do not care about their ‘bothers’, but because they fear for the fate of the own people that are under the influence of baleful ideas. The title of an interview given by a famous journalists and politician from Saint Petersburg is relevant in this sense – “The Russian idea always leads to the necessity of reeling on foreign bowels on tank treads”. This personality admitted that he took part in the military events in Transnistria and in Chechnya as a journalist and as a combatant on the part of the Russian military forces. Another Russian personality tried recently to find a people, a country conquered or freed under the flag of the Russian Word, which then lived better, but couldn’t find one… In the same way, nobody in Moldova could find politicians and other influential people in the country whose children study or live in the area of the Russian World. Practically all are in the ‘Rest of the World’.

Valeriu Vasilică, IPN