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| Anatol Țăranu | |
Despite overwhelming propaganda, Moscow's strategic failure in the war with Ukraine becomes a clear reality. This failure can be analyzed from a number of angles, and the major cases are related to wrong planning, underestimation of the adversary, international isolation, with disastrous economic consequences in the medium-to-long term.
Vladimir Putin argued that the war with Ukraine was needed in order to stop NATO's expansion towards Russia's borders and to impose Ukraine's loyalty from the point of view of military security for Russia's western border. As a result, Moscow ended up witnessing a disastrous long-term strategic impact.
NATO, after a long period of uncertainty regarding the perpetuation of its existence, caused by the collapse of the socialist bloc, became stringer and expanded at the expense of Finland and Sweden – countries with a long status of neutrality, which chose to join the alliance for fear of Russian military aggression. The enlargement of NATO was not only not stopped, but Russia overnight found itself extending its western border with the Alliance states by more than 1,000 kilometers.
The enmity of the state of Ukraine and Ukrainian citizens for decades, if not centuries to come is another depressing consequence for Russia's current defense strategy. Not to mention the credibility of the Russian army as a global military power, which was severely affected in this war in which Ukraine has demonstrated impressive resilience, sustained by a well-organized defense and the support of the population. The Kremlin's hope that the Russian-speaking population of eastern and southern Ukraine would support the invasion turned out to be false. Many of these supported Ukraine, strengthening national resistance.
Moscow was unable to anticipate either the unity of the West or the extent of the economic and political sanctions to which it is subjected. Russia's international isolation resulted in unprecedented economic sanctions, which have affected the Russian economy, reducing its ability to finance the war.
The diplomatic isolation has weakened Russia's international influence and forced it to critically depend on allies such as China and Iran, which do not provide unconditional support. Moscow's strategic failure stems from a combination of miscalculations, unexpected resistance from Ukraine and the firm response of the international community. This war demonstrated the limits of Russia's power militarily, economically and diplomatically, considerably reducing Moscow's influence on international affairs.
The war in Ukraine has accentuated Moscow's strategic planning blunders in relation to the Republic of Moldova as well. Over the years, the Kremlin has used the weapon of the economic embargo against the Republic of Moldova with the main purpose of putting pressure on Chisinau through economic sanctions to discourage rapprochement with the European Union and maintain Russian geopolitical influence on Moldova. But in most cases, the results of these economic pressure were contrary to Moscow's expectations.
After the introduction of embargoes, especially on Moldovan agricultural products and wines, the Republic of Moldova sought to diversify its export markets. The European Union became Moldova's main trading partner, providing expanded access to its market through the Association Agreement and the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA). Thus, the Moldovan economy substantially reduced its critical dependence on Russia. In order to meet the standards of the European market, many Moldovan producers invested in improving the quality of their products, which increased their international competitiveness, thereby further reducing their dependence on the Russian market.
Politically, the embargoes were perceived by many Moldovan citizens as a form of political intimidation by Russia. This strengthened support for European integration and diminished confidence in Moscow's policy towards Moldova.
Russia's actions, including embargoes, helped to increase the sense of national unity and fortify a more independent position from Moscow. These effects demonstrate that economic punitive measures do not always lead to the desired results, especially in the context of an economy that finds alternatives and manages to adapt.
At the same time, against the background of Russian intimidation, Romania has provided consistent aid to the Republic of Moldova during this difficult period, including energy, funds and logistical support. An increasing number of Moldovans, who went through the machinery of anti-Romanian identity deconstruction of Soviet model, which is today actively applied by the current Russian imperial propaganda, identify themselves with the Romanian cultural space, and the pan-Romanian historical, linguistic and cultural ties are becoming more and more evident.
The Moldovan social segment that sees Romania as a bridge to the European Union is growing, and the Union with Romania is perceived as the easiest way to follow for a rapid integration.
The Russian military aggression in Ukraine increased the dissatisfaction with Moscow's policies in Moldovan society, especially given the proximity of the Republic of Moldova to the conflict zone and the danger of war expansion.
The existence of the separatist region of Transnistria, where Russia has troops and decisive influence, amplifies Moldova's vulnerability. Over time, Russia has tried to maintain its influence in Moldova by supporting pro-Russian parties and maintaining the frozen conflict in Transnistria. At the same time, Moscow is categorically against the Republic of Moldova’s union with Romania, considering this scenario a major strategic loss.
However, although Moldova's population continues to be split into pro-European and pro-Russian, the number of supporters of the union with Romania as the most radical option for European integration is growing. Although a significant part of the population continues to oppose this idea, however, the young people, who are more connected to European values, are the ones who support the union idea more.
Given this perspective, Moscow is faced with the reality of the definitive loss of its geopolitical control over the Republic of Moldova, which agitates the warlike spirits of the most aggressive part of the Russian political class and fuels the option of resorting to the military inclusion of the Moldovan state into the Russian world space.
For now, however, Ukraine, through its heroic resistance, appeases the Kremlin's greedy appetites in relation to the Republic of Moldova. But, in reality, perfect security for the Republic of Moldova can be achieved only by uniting with Romania. This would mean extending the NATO and EU border up to the border with Ukraine and including Moldova eastward the Prut River in the guaranteed security space, as well as overcoming the chronic economic and social stagnation that the Republic of Moldova has shown during the entire period of existence as a state outside its natural national space.
At geopolitical level, the Union with Romania would forever exclude the danger of turning the Republic of Moldova into a Russian bridgehead behind Ukraine, depriving Moscow of the motivation to extend its military aggression over this part of Europe.
Moscow's aggressive policy towards the Republic of Moldova, combined with military, economic and propaganda actions, indirectly contributes to the growth of the unionist sentiment in Moldovan society.
In the face of this Russian pressure, the union with Romania becomes, for an increasingly significant part of Moldovans, an alternative for security, development and identity reaffirmation. The anti-Western and anti-unionist discourses promoted by the Kremlin have increasingly generated opposite effects, strengthening support for the idea of union with Romania, seen as a path of protection and development.
In this geopolitical context, the upcoming parliamentary elections can definitively end the Kremlin's hopes to enslave the Republic of Moldova, bringing it back to the status of semi-colony of imperial Russia.
An accurate indicator of this change in the historical destiny of Moldova eastward the Prut will be the creation in the future Parliament of a group with an assumed unionist political program, which will create the political conditions for a leap of civilization that has been so long awaited by the Moldovans after obtaining independence and for a definitive break from the Eastern empire.
IPN publishes in the Op-Ed rubric opinion pieces submitted by authors not affiliated with our editorial board. The opinions expressed in these articles do not necessarily coincide with the opinions of our editorial board.
