Rise in base rate will not lead to average-term increase in interest on bank loans, central bank governor

The rise in the base rate will not result in an average-term increase in the interest rates on bank loans, said the governor of the National Bank of Moldova Dorin Dragutan, quoted by Info-Prim Neo. “It is very hard to forecast how the interest on the loans released by the banks to companies working in the real sector of the economy will develop,” Dorin Dragutan said when presenting the quarterly report on the central bank's monetary policy, projected inflation and other macroeconomic indicators during the next 24 months. The evolution of the interest on state securities is very important in setting the interest rates on bank loans. “At a meeting on January 28, the Administration Board of the National Bank decided to increase the base rate on the major short-term foreign policy operations by one percentage point – from 5% to 6% a year. As a result, the interest rates on state securities also increased. However, the economy begins to feel the effects of such a decision in 3-8 quarters. The trends are expected to persist, but the levels will not be very high. We forecast that the interest on the state securities maturing in 91 days will reach 6.5 -8.9% a year in December 2010 and 5.3 -7.5% in December 2011 ,” he said. Dragutan also said that the central bank will ensure the macroeconomic stability and good working conditions for the banking sector. “We do not intend to absorb the liquidity. The banks have money. It depends on them how quickly they will extend their lending programs for the real sector of the economy. We hope this will happen as soon as possible. Owing to a low inflation rate, the macroeconomic stability and the good working conditions, the banks will be able to provide loans at reasonable interest rates to the real sector of the economy,” he said.

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