To remain in power, avoid social revolt and manage to integrate Moldova into the EU, the new Alliance for European Integration should adopt a clear and harsh approach in relation to the country’s internal problems, named conventionally ‘the Saakashvili model”. Such a suggestion is formulated in the IPN analysis “Last pro-European alliance of Moldova” that was published on July 24, 2015. The author of the analysis Valeriu Vasilica provides internal and external arguments in favor of such a solution.
“Surely, the government program of the new pro-European coalition and the program of the new Government will contain known and correct things such as the European integration, the European development, the justice sector reform, the fight against corruption and poverty, but the credibility of the administration can increase only if the people perceive one really important point in the program and subsequent actions of the pro-European government: “authorization and implementation of the Saakashvili model”,” says the analysis.
According to the author, the given model suggests relevant motives and solutions in its favor.
Thus, the post-Soviet system, including at the phase of transition to a European, democratic one, generates corruption and poverty, protected by excessive political and economic control over the state institutions, including those that must be independent and including the legal system. Things can be changed in a short period of time, while the changes will be approved of and supported by society even if there is harsh resistance on the part of the system.
Also, the managers of the state institutions that make the changes should be from outside the system or from it, but should not be involved in dubious businesses and should be non-blackmailable and should have will and capacity to make changes, even if there is harsh resistance on the part of the system. A mandatory condition is that the fight against corruption and other illegalities must be sincere and complete. It cannot be selective and aimed against one party or one leader.
Owing to the accumulation of many serious problems and of negative energy in society, the ‘small-steps’ tactic is not appropriate. That’s why the first energetic steps should not be less important than the elucidation of the ‘theft of the billion’. This is the litmus test of the sincerity of the new government to govern in a new way and of the guarantee of credibility and increasing support for the country’s European course on the part of society.
The ‘Saakashvili model’ is not ordinary, but rather extraordinary, but the current situation in the country and inside the political class is also extraordinary and is typical not only of Moldova. Georgia and Ukraine are now finding similar solutions to similar problems.
The author points to signs showing that the implementation of this model is possible in the current conditions that are alarming for Moldovan society and for the ruling political class.
“Judging by the secrecy of the talks on the formation of the AEI 3 and by the first statements concerning the new candidate for Prime Minister, there is a slim, but chance for things to change namely according to the ‘Saakashvili model’ in Moldova as well. If such an understanding is not reached, early parliamentary elections will be preferable and should be held as soon as possible, until the pro-European option and the Eastern one are in parity so that we do not lose two-three years more and regret it, as one of the leaders of the pro-European parties regretted the fact that he didn’t go until the end in 2013, including up to early legislative elections.
“The political class from the ruling coalition cannot remain too much in power if only following this model. In autumn, the social revolt will impose this model by force if an agreement is not reached voluntarily. The ‘billion’ and the ‘tariffs’ serve as guarantees in this regard. However, when force is used, the guarantees for the political class and for society and the European course disappear. That’s why the ruling pro-European coalition seems to be the last one. The last European train or even the last European railcar?” asks the author of the IPN analysis “Last pro-European alliance of Moldova”.
