Last pro-European alliance of Moldova

IPN analysis: The fifth pro-European governing coalition in Moldova is the last one by its format of government that can achieve the country’s European ambition. It is the last one even if this coalition remains in power until the ordinary parliamentary elections of 2018 or is disbanded earlier, possibly again in several months. Why is the stake so great?
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The Alliance for European Integration (AEI) 3, which was formalized on July 23, 2015, is the fifth pro-European governing coalition after the events of April 2009 and the last possible in this format and for this purpose. The key reason why a new, sixth alliance cannot be formed is the eroded credibility of the ruling parties that define themselves as pro-European. This automatically affects the idea of European integration, even if this extrapolation is not exactly equitable in relation to the idea itself. When the population no longer has confidence in particular parties, it naturally and democratically rejects the ideas these promote, even if the ideas are not to blame for the inability of the promoters to put them into practice. A very distant comparison, but yet a comparison: communism started to be hated by most of the people on earth mainly owing to the crimes against humanity committed by those who called themselves ‘Communists’, including Stalin in the USSR and Pol Pot in Cambodia, and not only.

Diminution of credibility: step by step

The credibility of the pro-European ruling parties decreased in time, gradually, but constantly, and a part of the explanations why opinion polls show that the number of supporters of the European integration idea diminishes, while that of persons who support the pro-Eastern or pro-Russian idea increases, even if Europe provided massive support, including financial, in this period and totally opposed signals came from the other part of the world, should be looked for in this process.

Initially, the diminution of credibility was fueled by the settling of accounts in public by the leaders of the parties that came to power in 2009. Even if particular reciprocal criticism is useful and even necessary in a governing coalition in a democratic country, the vehement and permanent, often speculative, planned and concerted mutual attacks generated a first dose of disappointment in these parties and, by ricochet, in the European idea promoted by the ‘new pro-Europeans’. And this happened when society was fully unprepared for a minimum degree of transparency, after it detached itself from the Soviet system and then after the eight years of Communist government. Conventionally, this coincided with the time of the AEI 1.

State institutions outside the state

At the second confidence diminution stage, which took place simultaneously with the continuation of the verbal settling of accounts that was abundantly covered by the often biased media outlets , the ‘pro-European’ parties completed the process of politically subduing the state institutions, including them in the interparty rivalries, each on its side, and in the promotion of the political and economic interests, which were not always transparent and legal, at national and international levels. The worst result of this process was the dysfunctionality of most of the state institutions, which mainly lost the connection with the state and the population, working in an autonomous regime, as they reduced their task to serving primarily the interests of the political-economic ‘patrons’, openly and cynically. At temporal level, we can speak about the time of the AEI 2.

The ordinary people’s reaction was simple and understood: ‘if these parties and these institutions are European, we do not have to accept something like this’. And this despite the fact that the key goal of the reforms asked and financed by the Europeans in Moldova is to strengthen the state institutions so that they better serve the people’s needs.

All those corrupt are from the same party?

It seems that the culminant point of this second stage coincides with the tragedy that happened in the Domneasca Forest at the end of 2012 and the profound political crisis that derived from it. If we believe one of the sides involved in this conflict, we can say that an attempt was made to demolish the system of institutions that were fully controlled by the political class, but this attempt failed, if it existed. An additional proof is the fact that at a certain moment, the whole ‘fight against corruption’ was directed exclusively at the representatives of a party and exclusively in major political and social circumstances: the death of a man during hunting that involved high-ranking officials; the theft of 1 billion US dollars or euros; the negotiations on the formation of the ruling alliance, etc. It may be a coincidence or a reality as some categories of persons from particular political parties are to blame for law violations, but this is most probably not so.

Roots of problem

It is not tight to believe that the pro-European governments are those that invented the conception of full subordination of the state institutions. This political-economic control existed before them too, but the Party of Communists (PCRM) was the only ruling party then and it had neither to divide nor to tear away something from somebody. The people got used to accepting the superiority of the ‘father of the nation’ and his right to decide everything in the country, while the ensured media coverage of this behavior was ‘perfect’. Furthermore, the PCRM didn’t disseminate European slogans and thus the important component that would have discredited the European development option was absent. Possibly not even the hidden goals of the former Communist government had been so great, but its incontestable ‘merit’ resides in the creation of models and schemes, which the current rulers took over ‘successfully’.

BEM, Airport, billion

The signs of the next, third stage joined the distinctive signs of the first two stages of credibility diminution. The third stage was marked by uncertain legal actions related to the concession of the controlling interest of the state in Banca de Economii (BEM) of Moldova, with the subsequent return to the initial position, the concession of the Chisinau International Airport and the ‘theft of the century’ of 1 billion US dollars or euros through the BEM. The size and impudence of this last ‘business’ seem to have bewildered even those who considered and still consider that they control the state institutions and the state in general. I’m inclined to believe those who say that such ‘operations’ have taken place in Moldova since its existence, with the knowledge and involvement of almost all or even all the governments that had ruled. But the sizes and appetites became greater in time.

The most serious warning before the ‘direct theft”, with the laundering of over US$20 billion from Russia through the Moldovan banks, didn’t wake anybody up, possibly because the euphoria and convenience were too great. They say that the laundering of ‘some’ money through the Moldovan institutions with the authorities’ knowledge was considered even a ‘virtue’ for the supervisors from among the authorities and was ‘beneficial’ for the public budget owing to the commissions obtained from the illegal transactions and, possibly, for other more private and more corporate budgets. In the case of the ‘billion from the BEM’, the experienced ‘gamblers’ from the country and/or abroad staged the finishing stroke for which they skillfully used the trap set in time, of the ‘virtues’ and ‘public, private and corporate benefits’.

Trap of virtues and benefits

There are sufficient reasons to believe that all the competent state institutions or, more exactly, their managers, who were named according to political criteria openly or tacitly, and all or almost all the official or unofficial high-ranking officials of this country, got into this trap, if a part of them weren’t also among the builders and beneficiaries of this ‘trap’. The major reason why we think so is again related to the full control over the state institutions, especially the law enforcement and regulatory bodies and the judiciary. Namely the case of the billion for the first time fully revealed the existence of this complete control without which this national tragedy and shame wouldn’t have happened.

This control reached unprecedented levels in the history of our country and in the history of all the democratic countries at this stage of modern history, because the control of institutions was actually divided politically between the coalition partners/competitors, which theoretically would have ensured the mandatory development of the ‘operation’ at the initial stages, but this didn’t happen. The conclusion is that these different controls either cooperated between them at the top or there are no longer different controls, but only one complete control. None of the variants is in the interests of society and the people. All of them pose direct internal political and social threats and indirect threats for the European destinies of Moldova, in case of the extrapolation of the social approval from the European government to the European cause.

All these actions and signs form part of the government periods named the Pro-European Coalition and, respectively, the minority and short-term Alliance for European Moldova.

Tariffs at the ‘right time’

The fourth, newest stage of credibility diminution took shape the previous days, when the electricity and gas tariffs were raised. It’s true that these rises were approved by an independent, theoretically at least, public regulatory body, but the fact in itself is relevant for a future massive wave of chain rises, which, amid the economic recession, will generate a wave of serious poverty among the largest social sections. In the social perception and in the perception of many experts, the rises, poverty and the ‘theft of the billion’ form a logical chain of causes and effects. In the same social perception and in a logical way, the government, wherever its nature is, is responsible for all the causes and effects and will be obliged to pay. Time will show how, when and to what extent, but a price will be definitely asked and paid, including for the discredited European cause.

Uncertain stage

It is not mandatorily, but a decisive and newer credibility diminution stage could shortly appear, related to the negotiations on the formation of this last pro-European coalition. If it’s true that the sides involved in the negotiations, through the controlled state institutions, exerted, unilaterally or reciprocally, pressure and used blackmail to obtain more control over the state institutions, we will have to ascertain the definitive deviation of the pro-European parties from the European models, standards and values and to make all their leaders to blame for these deviations. The variant of early parliamentary elections could be the best of all the bad variants that remained available.

Full part of the glass

The tone of this analysis may seem exaggeratedly harsh if we will have to admit the success of the pro-European parties that ultimately formed this majority ruling coalition, which is to administer the affairs of the state, very complicated both internally and externally. Yes, it is a victory, but it is a bitter one, due to the aforementioned reasons. This victory requires even more sincerity and responsibility than in the case of a defeat. Those who are defeated can no longer be held accountable. In our case, there is no possibility for the winner to shirk responsibility.

To be more correct, we should yet admit that the pro-European parties, leaders and coalitions, especially in the initial government periods, also had particular merits, sometimes sufficient, in promoting the European ideas and practices in Moldova. Including: they attracted money in exchange for reforms and credibility, and brought the Moldovan people and producers closer to the European values and standards, especially by obtaining free movement in the world and by signing the Association Agreement with the EU. On the one hand, not the merits are the key subject of this analysis. On the other hand, remedying things is more useful than lamentation in a moment of success. Thirdly, here and now, the blame of the pro-European leaders and parties is heavier on scales than their merits and this is the only thing that matters and that should be taken into account in the actions that the new government has to take.

Legality and legitimacy on the scales

Yes, the pro-European politicians are right when they say that the legality and legitimacy of the pro-European parties and course were confirmed in the parliamentary elections of 2014 and the local elections of 2015, but:

1. After six years of pro-European government, with huge resources spent, with a large number of official national and international documents signed and with unprecedented political, economic, financial, logistic and geopolitical support from the greatest world powers – the EU and the U.S., the number of those who support the European integration idea among the Moldovans, according to different estimates, decreased or increased insignificantly, considerably less compared with invested resources and hopes. The responsibility in this situation is undoubtedly borne by the government;

2. In the large towns, which give the tone of the political life and form the development course, and in many of the smaller towns, the pro-European parties were outstripped by the pro-Russian ones and this is a significant signal;

3. The legitimacy and legality of the government may not be sufficient for offering guarantees for the pro-European course today and tomorrow, if we believe at least a part of the accusations of using administrative resources, of buying votes and of corrupting local and national elected officials, of staging blows from behind in the process of forming ruling coalitions at the local and national levels, made including by members of the pro-European parties;

4. The credibility of the pro-European parties reached a critical level in the perception of society and this involves imminent threats to the European course of the country too;

5. The European partners and international backers treat with a more pronounced reserve the situation of the pro-European parties and of Moldova in general. The attitude will change not automatically and not immediately after the formation of the AEI 3 and of the new Government, but in time, after the new administration shows political will for making significant changes.

Government program with one point: “Saakashvili model”

Surely, the government program of the new pro-European coalition and the program of the new Government will contain known and correct things such as the European integration, the European development, the justice sector reform, the fight against corruption and poverty, but the credibility of the administration can increase only if the people perceive one really important point in the program and subsequent actions of the pro-European government: “authorization and implementation of the Saakashvili model”, which suggests that:

a) the post-Soviet system, including at the phase of transition to a European, democratic one, generates corruption and poverty, protected by excessive political and economic control over the state institutions, including those that must be independent and including the legal system;

b) things can be changed in a short period of time, while the changes will be approved of and supported by society even if there is harsh resistance on the part of the system;

c) the managers of the state institutions that make the changes should be from outside the system or from it, but should not be involved in dubious businesses and should be non-blackmailable and should have will and capacity to make changes, even if there is harsh resistance on the part of the system;

d) the fight against corruption and other illegalities must be sincere and total. It cannot be selective and aimed against one party or one leader;

e) owing to the accumulation of many serious problems and of negative energy in society, the ‘small-steps’ tactic is not appropriate. That’s why the first energetic steps should not be less important than the elucidation of the ‘theft of the billion’. This is the litmus test of the sincerity of the new government to govern in a new way and of the guarantee of credibility and increasing support for the country’s European course on the part of society;

f) the ‘Saakashvili model’ is not ordinary, but rather extraordinary, but the current situation in the country and inside the political class is also extraordinary and is typical not only of Moldova. Georgia and Ukraine are now finding similar solutions to similar problems;

The last railcar leaves or stays yet?

Judging by the secrecy of the talks on the formation of the AEI 3 and by the first statements concerning the new candidate for Prime Minister, there is a slim, but chance for things to change namely according to the ‘Saakashvili model’ in Moldova as well. If such an understanding is not reached, early parliamentary elections will be preferable and should be held as soon as possible, until the pro-European option and the Eastern one are in parity so that we do not lose two-three years more and regret it, as one of the leaders of the pro-European parties regretted the fact that he didn’t go until the end in 2013, including up to early legislative elections.

Sincerely speaking, the political class from the ruling coalition cannot remain too much in power if only following this model. In autumn, the social revolt will impose this model by force if an agreement is not reached voluntarily. The ‘billion’ and the ‘tariffs’ serve as guarantees in this regard. However, when force is used, the guarantees for the political class and for society and the European course disappear. That’s why the ruling pro-European coalition seems to be the last one. The last European train or even the last European railcar?

Valeriu Vasilică IPN