IPN analysis: Moldova’s pro-European orientation can become irreversibly easier and faster if somebody annually spends US$63 million additionally for this, during 4-5 years. Less than half of this amount is sufficient for this year. Finding this money is a relatively easy task if we take into account the significant assistance provided so far to Moldova by the European Union and by Japan, Switzerland, China and other donors, on the one hand, and by Russia to the Transnistrian region that is controlled by the separatist regime, on the other hand.
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Last week, the European Parliament adopted a resolution providing that Moldova has the right to apply for accession to the European Union and this is a completely new state of the relations between Moldova and the EU. The right is surely offered on condition that the country subscribes to the democratic principles and obeys the fundamental freedoms, human rights and the rights of the minorities and guarantees the rule of law, which is hard to be done, but not impossible, at least in the long run. However, a n umber of other conditions need to be met in the period between the submission of the application and the accession, possibly even more important than the ones indicated by the European legislative body.

In general, this means that a political force able to formulate the request in the name of the people must exist inside, while the people must support the accession by a national referendum in a certain period. This means that the current and/or other pro-European political forces must administer the country after the parliamentary elections of November 2014 and, possibly, during one more term afterward. That’s why the outcome of the autumn legislative elections, which will thus have a mainly geopolitical significance, is very important. It is harder to achieve this goal than the one indicated by the EU, especially because the period is very short. It will be hard to achieve it, but not impossible.

Moldovan paradoxes

If parliamentary elections took place next Sunday, as the sociologists say, we must take into account the opinion polls of the last several years, which reveal a relative balance in the pro-European and pro-Eurasian options of the Moldovans. It is a mainly paradoxical picture if taking into account the significant volume of ‘constructive’ attention devoted by the West to Moldova in the form of grants, development strategies and development projects that were already implemented in many settlements of the country, on the one hand, and the greater, but less ‘constructive’ attention paid by Russia to the separatist Transnistria regime in the form of embargoes and massive support, on the other hand. In such a situation, it’s important to identify the sources of Euro-skepticism of the Moldovans and what should be done to diminish their rather unordinary impact on the country’s development course.  

Long-lasting sources of Euro-skepticism

We can say with a certain dose of certainty that the Euro-skepticism is mainly based on the fear of new, the nostalgia and older Soviet or post-Soviet phobias, including related to Moldova’s union with Romania, the authorities’ inability to improve the living conditions in a reasonable timeframe, the ethnic and linguistic elements, and the illusion of a lower price for the Russian gas as embodiment of bearable costs of the life, which is now not at all easy for the majority of people. It doesn’t matter much if these perceptions are fueled by real facts and phenomena or/and by manipulation and disinformation to which particular politicians from inside and outside the country resort. It is the existence o these perceptions as sources of Euro-skepticism that counts in fact. For their part, the given perceptions influence the political culture of society, on which the political actions, including electoral ones and in geopolitical context, are based.

For most of the sources of Euro-skepticism to stop having an effect, a longer period of time is required, with more efforts and resources. At the same time, for other, fewer sources that have yet a more powerful impact, less time is required, if taking into account the enormous internal stake aimed and the geopolitical tectonic movements related to the Ukrainian crisis in particular.

Cure for the fear of new

Thus, the fear of new and change, the nostalgias and phobias generated by direct experience or transmitted already to the second generation, strengthened by the traditional orientation to the East only, can and will be overcome in time, with the natural development of things within the modernization process and the opening of the Moldovan society. In particular, the free movement in Europe can dynamically influence the diminution of fears, nostalgia and phobias. But not only one trip or one exchange of guests from the European countries to Moldova and vice versa will be needed for us to convince ourselves of the advantages of the western model of life. Several more years will be required for Moldova to fulfill the conditions imposed by the EU, on its own initiative and/or by force, according to the more for more principle, to do the reforms in the justice sector, to combat corruption, to obtain economic growth, to increase the number of jobs, to improve education, healthcare, social assistance, etc. Altogether, in the end they will mean nothing else, but a living standard comparable to the European one aspired by us. 

EU models for interethnic coexistence

Time and openness to the whole world, not only to the East, will be required for more representatives of the national minorities that live in Moldova to overcome the ‘eastern syndrome’ as the minorities in the Baltic States, which are also former Soviet republics and are now EU embers states. At least until now, there weren’t recorded tendencies of massive migration of the minorities from there to the countries of origin or calls to protect them addressed to the countries of origin. The free movement to the neighboring Romania for example will incontestably diminish the influence of the inborn or acquired fear of the ‘union’, including because the living standards there are already much better than in Moldova and became so in only several years after joining the EU. The distance from Romania to Ukraine is not so long, if this right is guaranteed, to realize that the relations between the two countries are better now than ever. This permanent improvement is determined namely by the presence in the EU.

From here up to the natural conclusion regarding the necessity of implementing the EU model of organizing and managing the interethnic relations in Moldova is also not far. But this also requires time. Normal conditions for the natural processes should be continued and developed, related to the material life and the people’s mentality. In fact, these conditions are perfectly identical to those that the EU suggests for ensuring the accession right: accession based on the principles of democracy, respect for the fundamental freedoms, human rights and the rights of the minorities in guaranteeing the rule of law.

Cheap gases and large pensions between dream and corruption

One more source of Euro-skepticism depends especially on the material life – the dream to have access to cheap natural gas from the East. The fact that this dream was never fulfilled and cannot be fulfilled in normal economic and political conditions, in principle, doesn’t count. What counts is the fact that it was and continues to be fueled by poverty that marks many of the Euro-skeptics and by certain interested political forces according to the principle: if you vote for whom you should, you may have cheap gas. Or, as in the joke: if you learn to swim, we will fill the swimming pool with water…

The mention about the impossibility of purchasing much more cheaper gas than the price regulated by the international market was necessary because Russia has supplied natural gas gratis to the Transnistrian region during many years, not in normal economic and political conditions. In reality, this means direct support for the separatist Transnistrian regime, as a result of which enormous damage is caused to the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Moldova. For those who are not aware: the Transnistrian regime sells Russian gas obtained gratis to the population, but at much lower prices than on the right bank of the Nistru, while the collected money is transferred to the ‘state’ budget of the unrecognized republic.

In the same connection, it should be noted that such behavior by one of the guarantors of the Transnistrian conflict settlement has also the destructive sense of political and moral corruption of the population from the right bank of the Nistru, whose false expectations of cheap gas are fueled on condition that they do not steal a look at the orchard of the European neighbor. The case of cheap gas for Ukraine is already outdated in this respect. In the case of Moldova, such acts of corruption have a real impact and is enough to remind the very recent attempts to transfer Dorotskaya village, which is situated in the Security Zone, from Moldova’s administration under Transnistria’s. They often argue that the gas in Transnistria is cheaper, the bills for public utilities are lower and the pension is higher. By the way, the bills are lower because the price of gas is lower and the pensions are slightly higher also owing to Russia’s direct donations.

Later it can be too late

Thus, the complex and personalized character, poverty, political manipulation and separatism made the ‘cheap gas’ one of the most powerful sources of Euro-skepticism and, respectively, of Eurasian optimism that reach one of the two targets in the autumn elections – European or Eurasian. Fortunately, the most powerful weapon is also the easiest and fastest solution, if its gravity is ascertained on time. The solution is for the Government to identify financial resources to cover at least half of the costs incurred by the population for gas starting with this year so that this becomes a real argument in the autumn elections. Later it can be too late.

Simple calculations show that US$63-65 million is needed annually for the purpose, during 4-5 years. Half of this sum will be enough for this year. Namely these figures result if we take into account that last year for example, Moldova paid slightly over 6 billion Moldovan lei for gas consumption, while household users covered up to 30% of this sum. The household users in Moldova would appreciate it if somebody eased half of the monthly burden of the gas bills. This represents an additional sum of about US$63 million a year. During 4-5 years the sum will rise to about US$300 million, which is not a very large amount if considering that this is the final price for Moldova’s entry into the EU.

First US$30 million count

The sum of slightly over US$30 million provided this year for cheapening the gas would count the most as this money would meet the first condition for joining the EU – existence of a pro-European government after the November 2014 elections, after which Moldova will be able to apply for membership. A period of 4-5 years of such financial support for the population will be needed because namely in this period there will be implemented the aforementioned reforms, which, on the one hand, will mean the fulfillment of the accession conditions, while, on the other hand, will ensure higher pensions, salaries, scholarships and other payments so as to cover the real costs of natural gas and other payments.

A drop in the sea of the western assistance

Surely the Government now does not have this money and must obtain financial support from outside, preferably in the form of assistance. The logic of things shows that Moldova can seek support from the EU, the U.S. and other donors that support Moldova’s pro-European orientation and cannot ask for assistance from Russia only. Other forces that aim to change Moldova’s course can make an appeal to Russia, if they hadn’t done it already.

The sum of US$60 million additionally a year is not such a large amount for the EU, given that in 2007-2013 the EU offered Moldova €632 million, while the EBRD and EIB, which are EU originations, provided another €1 billion in the form of loans in very advantageous conditions. The United States offered over US$1 billion in the last 22 years, on average by €45 million a year. For example, the previous years Switzerland announced that it will offer Moldova €46 million. On the other hand, Russia so far offered Transnistria natural gas to the value of US$5.3 billion. Also, last year Russia offered US$60 million for infrastructure projects to promote the Eurasian integration in the region. A sum of US$30 million is added to this sum for pensions and social benefit. Russia provides this money annually.

„…if there is no other way out”

Certainly there is a system contradiction in this proposal of cheapening the gas for Moldovan domestic end-users. On the one hand, we condemn the corruption of the population by such non-economic instruments. On the other hand, we plead for their application. On the one hand, we plead for ‘fish catching instruments’, which the EU teaches us how to implement. On the other hand, we choose for Moldova’s population the ‘fish’ that made the people from the Transnistrian region depend on narcotic injections, with no chance to ever catch its own ‘fish’. This ‘fish’ has recently turned into a real, powerful and efficient weapon used by one of the sides in the confrontation between the two worlds – the eastern and the western. The logic of things shows that all the sides must have and use all kinds of weapons, if they do not want risk losing the stakes.

“My country can disappear from the world map”

The Ukrainian crisis revealed the weakness of the ‘intellectual’ position of the EU in the confrontation with Russia as now it anyway thinks how to help Ukraine pay the gas debt of €2 billion to Russia. The U.S. had also to provide US$1 billion in assistance for combating the effects of Russia’s expansionist policy. US$60 million for anticipating the Ukraine scenario in Moldova is possibly a price that the Western world would like to pay in advance, mainly for its own convenience. Maybe this is what the parliamentary speaker of one of the EaP member states implied, when he said that if the Europeans do not wake up now, his country will disappear from the world map. He made the statement in the conference of the EU heads of parliament.

Valeriu Vasilică, IPN