If Marian Lupu is elected head of state, the Alliance for European Integration will fall apart. If Vlad Filat is voted in as President, the alliance will be maintained and the Dodon group will keep its promises. If an apolitical President is elected, this person may be a mediator between the leaders of the AEI, who are on bad terms. Or these scenarios will not happen and Moldova will hold early elections. The four possible scenarios were formulated by political analyst Anatol Taranu, being quoted by Info-Prim Neo. [The first scenario: Marian Lupu is fielded as a candidate] According to Anatol Taranu, Marian Lupu can be elected head of state on one condition - the PCRM supports him. “I suspect that the PLDM will withdraw its support for Marian Lupu. In fact, if Marian Lupu is elected with the help of the votes of the PCRM, the AEI will collapse and the configuration of Parliament will change,” said the analyst. He also said that under these conditions, it is absolutely clear that the PLDM will move to the opposition, while Marian Lupu, if the PDM and the PCRM unite, can become head of state with only the support of the PL. If the configuration of Parliament is modified, the second step that the Liberal leader Mihai Ghimpu may take after the election of Marian Lupu together with the PCRM is to move to the opposition. “It is highly improbable that Mihai Ghimpu would remain in power together with the Communists. This would be a disaster for the PL. The political destiny of Iurie Rosca would repeat,” said Anatol Taranu. [The second scenario: Vlad Filat is elected President of Moldova] “This can happen only under certain conditions - Vlad Filat is elected with the help of the Dodon group, even if they said that they would not vote for the candidate of the AEI. In this case, Vlad Filat is not the ruling alliance’s candidate, but the candidate of the 62 MPs, i.e. the AEI plus the Dodon group,” said the political analyst. In such a case, the AEI will be maintained by distributing the posts of Prime Minister and Speaker between the other two leaders of the AEI. Most probably, Marian Lupu would be appointed Premier, while Mihai Ghimpu will return to the post of Head of Parliament, believes Anatol Taranu. “The agreement of the AEI will be renegotiated, the alliance will be maintained, the head of state will be elected and the political crisis will be resolved. The Dodon group will keep its promise of contributing to overcoming the political crisis and will become part of a constructive opposition, together with the intransigent and anti-system opposition of the Communists,” said Anatol Taranu. The analyst considers that in this case, the AEI may remove Artur Reshetnikov from the post of Deputy Speaker as a representative of the anti-system opposition and offer this post to a representative of the Dodon group. The AEI may also allow the Dodon group to hold the presidency of a parliamentary commission that now belongs to the Communists. [Third scenario: An apolitical person is elected head of state] “This scenario is rather probable, but only if the leaders of the AEI really want to maintain the ruling alliance and have a clear political view as to the disaster that the early elections may cause, and if the politicians are really able to abandon the personal ambitions and egocentric interests,” said the analyst. Anatol Taranu stressed that the apolitical person must be able to act as a mediator between the leaders of the AEI, who are in conflict. This head of state must assume the obligation to call early elections if the ruling alliance does not survive. “It seems that such a condition is illegal, but in fact it is perfectly political. On November 28, 2010, the electors in Moldova voted for the parties of the AEI. Voting for the AEI, the people in fact voted for restoring this alliance. Moreover, the Communists permanently spoke about the parties of the former AEI 1 as about one entity,” said Anatol Taranu. He also said that if the apolitical candidate accepts such a scenario, he/she has all the chances of earning the 61 votes needed. [Fourth scenario: Early elections] Anatol Taranu stressed that the three aforementioned scenarios may not happen and Moldova will thus hold again early elections.