Parliamentary elections will take place in Moldova on November 30. Some of the political parties have already started, officially or not, electoral actions, while some haven't. IPN Agency set out to sketch the “portraits” of political parties as recorded by society's perception, before the official start of the electoral campaign. We consider this to be a useful exercise for Moldovan voters, who will gain additional and concentrated information that they may find useful on the day of elections, and also for the parties themselves, who will get some hints on how to improve their image. This portrait might also help to better understand what one or another Moldovan party wants to be and what it really is. To this goal, many experts have been asked to comment on the parties' chance to make it into the next Parliament, the way they fulfilled their previous electoral promises, the possible coalitions, topics, tactics and strategies they might employ to get the voters' attention. Political parties are presented in order of the number of seats they hold in the current Legislative and of the results obtained during the previous parliamentary elections in 2010.
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The Democratic Party of Moldova has a controversial image because for some time it has been associated with ill-reputed politicians. Since it stopped promoting them, the party's image improved. The experts expect PDM to make it into the next Parliament as its core of voters remain loyal.
Electoral strategist Olga Nicolenco says that PDM's current image is better than expected and worse than it hoped. Despite a series of mistakes, with just four months left until the elections, the party's situation looks stable, at least on the surface, without scandals and internal differences, with a well-shaped and well-knit team. If no destabilizing events hit the PDM leadership, the party has good chances to make it into the next Legislative and must at least repeat its current result. The expert would salute the PDM elite if it was more careful to ideas, formulations and actions in the remaining time.
Political analyst Nicolae Negru notes that PDM's Igor Corman makes a good impression as Speaker, which in turn boosts the party's image. Corman is seen as a balanced person with a diplomatic background. Meanwhile, PDM also passed through the Padurea Domneasca crisis, when Democrat Vlad Plahotniuc was removed from his First Deputy Speaker seat through a no-confidence motion. PDM head Marian Lupu was also removed as Speaker. Nicolae Negru thinks some voters understand this was a political fight and that the accusations should be proved in court. The analyst added that according to polls, part of the voters remain loyal to the Democrats. He estimates PDM will be the third largest party in the next Parliament.
Denis Cenusa, expert, says PDM's image improved since Vlad Plahotniuc isn't associated as strongly with the party. The politician is still remembered by the people, but he doesn't take the spotlight as often. Other contradictory figures have also been removed from the forefront. Denis Cenusa can't see PDM entering the elections in an electoral bloc. “This would mean sharing interests and a partly like PDM that deems itself strong won't want to share the pie”, he said. The expert estimates the party will obtain 10-12% of votes, according to polls. The result depends on how the situation created by strained relations with Russia is handled, as PDM's voters are mostly pro-Russian.
Ion Tabarta, of the Institute of Consultancy and Political Analysis “Politicon”, agrees that PDM's image is controversial. Although it's an old party, with tradition, for some time it has been associated with politicians whose reputation was less than impeccable. He is sure the party will continue to improve its image, especially as it has an impressive media network. According to Tabarta, Marian Lupu is the party's engine, but lately PDM has been working on the images of Andrian Candu and Igor Corman. The expert rules out a bloc consisting of the governing parties in the current campaign, as PDM and the Liberal-Democrats can't share the same boat. Tabarta is confident PDM will pass the electoral threshold, but abstained from predicting the number of seats it will win.
Olga Nicolenco listed among the party's advantages the strong network of local organizations, dedicated activists, many of them well-trained, the media resources, visibility on social networks, political activism, skills to negotiate and reach compromise, a strong management staff and a clear logo. The minuses are the vague and dilute messages from the party leadership to ordinary members and votes.
Nicolae Negru agrees that PDM has a problem with its messages. Previously, the Democrats positioned themselves as a party bridging the gap between the right and the left, a party on both sides of fences and, at the same time, on no side. Negru admits this is a comfortable position and PDM will probably continue to use this strategy, but its success isn't certain, especially considering PCRM's recent move to end its opposition towards Moldova's association with the EU. He thinks the party will have to build a message around something related to well-being, good relations with Russia, but will most likely find it hard to come up with an attractive message.
Ion Tabarta pointed out to the party's compromised image as its main weakness. Its strengths are the well-developed network of local branches, trained local leaders and the administrative tools it might use. He expects PDM to focus during the elections on the fields it has governed so far.
Denis Cenusa says PDM's main advantage is the powerful financial backing from its pivotal representative – Vlad Plahotniuc. This will allow it to expand onto the local branches of other parties. Another advantage is subscribing to the pro-Moldovenist ideology that promotes statehood values and attracts many supporters. He agrees that members with stained reputations are the party's main weaknesses. Cenusa expects PDM's electoral message to focus on Moldovan identity and strengthening statehood. The relation with the EU will be promoted only carefully.
Olga Nicolenco thinks that in the electoral campaign PDM will stress social subjects (pensions, wages, jobs, infrastructure, local development), European integration (especially economic aspects), international support for the party and the benefits for Moldova, as well as its balancing role on the political arena. Regarding the party's tactics, the political analyst says PDM could start by keeping its promises regarding the selection criteria for the list of MP candidates for the November elections. Also, PDM could continue the door-to-door campaign, focus on the relationship with the diaspora and run a campaign in the Gagauz autonomy.
As part of this campaign, IPN has already published a review of the experts' opinions on the Communists' Party of Moldova and on the Liberal-Democratic Party of Moldova.
Mariana Galben, IPN
