Nikolai Tsveatkov, deputy director of the Reintegration Policy Bureau, suggests that the positions of Chisinau and Tiraspol have become closer in the face of the threats posed by Russia’s war in Ukraine.
“Today, I can tell you that communication between Chisinau and Tiraspol is much more constructive than it used to be. I can’t say that it’s all rosy and leading to a bright future, but I can assure you that today the communication between Chisinau and Tiraspol prevents the multiplication of risks within the country”, the official declared during an IPN debate on the subject.
Tsveatkov recalled in this context the prediction made in the spring of 2014 by Valeri Litskai, former so-called foreign minister of Transnistria, who warned those who optimistically anticipated a speedy recognition of Transnistria by Russia. “If a war breaks out in Ukraine, it could have unexpected effects for the elites on both sides of the Nistru. The positions of Chisinau and Tiraspol will become closer in the face of risks”, Tsveatkov quoted loosely Litskai.
According to Nicolai Tsveatkov, Tiraspol does not have the capacity to manage the risks that would result from a possible involvement in an armed conflict.
“Speaking of the situation in the region and the possibilities of the de facto authorities to control the situation, there are objective circumstances that cannot be overcome (…) When we talk about their ability to lock down and control the region completely, this is not an easy task. The fact that they gave up organizing the May 9 parade proves this”, said Tsveatkov.
To back his argument, the official recalled how the Tiraspol authorities handled the pandemic crisis. “The region’s first attempts to isolate itself, primarily from the Republic of Moldova, led to some serious consequences, from a social, economic and medical point of view (...) It is further evidence of the objective capacities of the region and its de facto authorities”.
At the same time, says Nikolai Tsveatkov, it should be noted that Transnistria does not have a land corridor with the Russian Federation. “Thus, a lot of smuggling that passes through this region goes through routes that are not controlled by the region. Here we must pay close attention to the actors who may be interested in destabilizing the region.”
Tsveatkov agreed with Igor Boțan, the standing expert on IPN debates, that the Transnistrian leadership has no certainty about Russia’s victory in the invasion of Ukraine. “I saw that from the first days. And I want to emphasize here that even from the first day Tiraspol was not enthusiastic about the start of the ‘special operation’ (...) Here we can attest to a very, very cautious reaction of the Tiraspol leaders. Why is this happening? Because they are less pro-Russian? Or because there are different interest groups there? I would not underestimate the interests of some Ukrainian actors in the region and their possibilities to influence things there.”
The debate was the 241st installment of IPN’s “Political Culture” Series, run with the support of the Hanns Seidel Foundation.
