IPN analysis: …after everything that happened, Vlad Filat and the PLDM will adopt a tough position. They will hold the negotiations transparently and as a party that has most of the seats in Parliament, compared with all the potential coalition partners taken together and taking into account its sad experience of carrying out talks.
It is expected that today or tomorrow, the PLDM will propose to President Nicolae Timofti a new candidate for Prime Minister. The logic of the recent developments on the political arena shows that the new candidate will be the previous candidate – the leader of the Liberal Democratic Party (PLDM) Vlad Filat. This will happen despite the April 22 decision of the Constitutional Court, according to which Vlad Filat cannot hold a public post because the Government headed by him earlier was dismissed by Parliament on suspicion of acts of corruption. But this decision set off the mentioned developments, including the interpretation by Parliament of this decision and the adoption of another decision enabling Vlad Filat to apply for the post of Premier, at least theoretically.
Three reasons for the PLDM
There are at least three reasons for which the PLDM will act like this and not other way. It will hurry to put forward a candidate and this will be Vlad Filat.
One: In order to deny as soon as possible and as convincingly as possible the accusation that the voting for important legal acts together with the PCRM last weekend means abandonment of the negotiations on forming a new democratic parliamentary majority and constituting a democratic government as well as the causing of early parliamentary elections;
Two: In order to deny the accusation and to prove at least apparently that they do not endanger the country’s European integration course and to make effort to calm down the people who are dissatisfied with this perspective and Moldova’s development partners, especially the EU officials;
Three: To save what is can save from the rating, good name and political perspective of the party and its leader after the multiple and serious blows received since revelations were made about the hunting in the Domneasca Forest at the start of January and the Constitutional Court’s knockout of April 22, 2013.
Three reasons for President Timofti
It is expected that as a result of consultations with the factions, as stipulated by the legislation, President Nicolae Timofti will designate Vlad Filat once again as a candidate for premierships for several reasons.
One: The PCRM will continue not to take part in the consultations and, respectively, will not propose a candidate because it wants early elections and because, even if it is the largest faction in Parliament, it does not have chances to secure the number of votes needed to form its own government or a coalition government;
Two: No other faction will propose candidates because no other candidate has the chance, at least theoretically, to be voted in by Parliament;
Three: Though he said he will obey the April 22 decision of the Constitutional Court, the head of state denied trenchantly the accusation that he violated the constitutional provisions when he nominated Vlad Filat the first time. He will use this possibility to confirm his position, already under the shelter of the Parliament’s interpretation, according to which the censure motion was strictly political in character and does not have criminal, administrative or other kinds of consequences. He can also use as protection the direct support offered by the U.S. Ambassador to Moldova William Moser in the first case. The ambassadors of many states transmitted such support in a more private way. It is rather improbable that the Constitutional Court will declare the President’s decree unconstitutional a second time. Even if it happens so, it will be much later and will refer to another internal political situation and may be radically different for having an important effect.
The same-another Vlad Filat
It is true that the same Vlad Filat, as a nominated candidate, will be different compared with his first designation. His position, as the position of the PLDM in general, will be tougher, even rigid and the negotiations are likely to be held publicly. Both of the elements of the position were formulated in a statement issued by the party’s National Political Council on April 26.
“It is absolutely necessary for this process to be a public one so that the people know details of the negotiations,” Vlad Filat said in the Council’s meeting, according to a communiqué issued then to the press. Regretfully, the Moldovan political class taught us not to always believe what they announce or promise, including as regards the transparency of the negotiation process and of the political process in general. But, after everything that happened since the first designation of the candidate, the PLDM and Vlad Filat do not have chances to recover the losses if only informing and consulting society at least from now on. The regret for the previous practice comes also in the context of the invitation made twice and rejected delicately by the then Premier designate to a public debate themed “Culture of forming Government. What should society know, expect and demand in case of formation of a new Government as a result of a political crisis?”, which formed part of the series “Development of political culture by public debates”, staged by IPN News Agency.
Thus, after everything that happened, Vlad Filat and the PLDM will adopt a tough position. They will hold the negotiations transparently and as a party that has most of the seats in Parliament, compared with all the potential coalition partners taken together and taking into account its sad experience of carrying out talks. According to the same statement of the party’s Council, the candidate for Prime Minister will claim the right to accept and reject not only the requests of the negotiations partners as regards posts of ministers for example, but also the persons fielded for these posts. This will strengthen even more the Prime Minister’s position in the future Cabinet, compared with the previous ones, and will thus significantly diminish the position of the leaders of the parties that may form part of the future ruling alliance. But this is the current situation. Some will say that these conditions are tough and nondemocratic, while others will invoke the learned lesson according to which the Premier alone answers with his career and name for the suspicions of acts of corruption possibly committed by any of the members of the Cabinet. It now springs to mind the often inappropriate reaction of the leaders of some of the parties when the former Premier tried to only state his opinion on the performance and professionalism of some ministers and heads of governmental agencies put forward by the given parties. Now it will be up to the leaders of the Democratic Party Vlad Plahotniuc and Marian Lupu and the wing of Ion Hadarca within the Liberal Party whether to accept the conditions or not. After everything that happened, they will have to choose only between accepting the tough conditions and early parliamentary elections.
The PLDM said it had been in such a situation and conceded then everything it was asked for maintaining the chance to constitute a new parliamentary majority and to create a new pro-European government. According to the earlier statements of Vlad Filat, the development partners also asked for such a technique in the negotiations. The political roles have now inversed and every political player is to assume their part of responsibility. We can anticipate that the negotiations will be rather harsh and the negotiations partners will rather reject than accept the conditions imposed by the PLDM.
Playing games with the country on the edge of precipice
Up to now, we spoke only about technical aspects of the relations between the former members of the ruling alliance. They have until now played their political chess games based on their understanding and abilities. Each of them considered that they won political struggles against the other partners. Each of them acted on one’s own, but allied directly or indirectly both with the alliance partners against the others and with the political forces in Parliament, especially the main opposition force – the Communist Party (PCRM). There were players who considered themselves winners and explained their coalition with the PCRM by noble and clean goals, but each of them then suffered bitter disappointments and defeats. Meanwhile, the PCRM itself improved its style of political struggle, renounced the useless boycotting of the Parliament sittings and the street protests and returned to the assembly hall to pull the strings with political ability and efficiency, using in turn, some of the former alliance against the others. This political chess was rather useful and interesting and would have been considered a sign of the political class’ maturity if it hadn’t been so dangerous for the moral state of society and the country’s European destiny. With every move, each of the players pushed the situation closer to the edge of a precipice that initially had a rather internal outline – the danger of early legislative elections and the diminution of the national European integration potential. Now the danger is highlighted by the Europeans, first Catherine Ashton and Štefan Füle, and then Thorbjørn Jagland and Jean-Claude Mignon. And the list will go on if ‘ours’ do not stop, at least on the edge of the precipice.
Chances still exist. Do they?
From technical viewpoint, what happened in Parliament on May 3 seems to be the first real victory of the PLDM after the row of inconsistencies, defeats and humiliations suffered at all levels since the start of this year, mainly through its own fault. Practically in several days after the Constitutional Court passed its decision, the party found will and ability to change the situation. As the PDM in the case of the dismissal of the Government, it used the services of the PCRM. It recovered what it said it had to instantly concede under the pressure of the PDM, as regards the joint electoral system, the National Anticorruption Center, the Prosecutor General’s Office, and the Constitutional Court. The given decisions were passed in concert with the PCRM in the same haste and lack of transparence as they were initially adopted together with the PDM. It gained even more – it obtained the dismissal of the leader of the PDM Marian Lupu from the post of Speaker, which was anticipated long ago. This way, the former AEI partners and rivals arrived at the ‘zero variant’ about which they spoke a lot. But on Friday they went far beyond limits. Why should they for example have increased the election threshold that reduced the level of representation in Parliament and, consequently, the level of democracy in society or why should they have formulated problems concerning the performance of the Constitutional Court judges so that it could be qualified as danger to the independence of the Court and its members? This is rather lack of sense of measurement in the political communication and relations, which was earlier shown by the PDM and PL too, or this is related to the ‘assistance’ offered by the PCRM to definitively discredit the AEI in general and every component separately before the Europeans after ‘helping’ them to discredit each other before Moldovan society?
Anyway, this sad and dangerous experience showed how easily and swiftly one can put things right, including as regards Moldova’s European prospect, by the vote of a stable parliamentary majority. This way is called the initiation and completion of talks on the formation of a new parliamentary majority in a very short period of time, without preconditions, stratagems and blows from behind. Is it still possible?
President Nicolae Timofti announced that consultations with the parliamentary groups will start today…
Valeriu Vasilica, IPN
