The National Bank of Moldova (NBM) has reviewed its inflation forecasts for 2011-2012. According to the new estimates, at the end of this year inflation will rise to 8.4%, replacing a February forecast of 7.9%, and in December 2012 inflation is expected to stand at 5.7%, as compared to the old forecast of 4.5%, Info-Prim Neo reports. “The annual inflation rate will rise until the second quarter of 2011, after which it will gradually decline to 5.7% by the end of 2012. The major risks that could modify this forecast are associated with the volatility of energy prices, in particular of petroleum products, and with the impact of the modification of the fiscal policy in 2012. Throughout the forecast period, and especially in 2011, inflation will stay within the single-digit range, and toward the end of the forecast period, in December 2012, the inflation rate will approach the target set in the NBM Strategy (5% ±1-1.5 p.p.), around 5.7%”, said NBM Governor Dorin Dragutanu. Dragutanu said the main drivers of inflation remain the same as in February. “These are in particular the rise in state-regulated prices in the wake of a hike in global energy and food prices. Another factor is the depreciation of the US dollar against the Euro. However in the first and second quarters 2011, inflation will be lower than earlier predicted”. At the same time, the National Bank announced that there were real chances for the GDP to rise in 2011, in particular due to positive developments in the areas of trade, transportation and communications. Constructions and industry are also growing, but they haven't reached the pre-crisis levels yet.