The economy of the Republic of Moldova will recover in 2023 and will offset the loss sustained last year due to the experienced multiple crises. The main scenario of the current forecast is based on a 4.7% economic growth in 2023 and on subsequent growths (5.4% in 2024 and a growth corridor of 4-5% in 2025-2027). The forecasts are presented in the 24th edition of the publication MEGA - Moldova Economic Growth Analysis - that is produced by the Independent Think Tank “Expert-Grup”, IPN reports.
The Moldovan economy was powerfully affected in 2022 by a series of unprecedented crises, like Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, the energy crisis, the persistent inflation and the drought. These crises exerted great costs and competitive pressure on the firms and led to an economic decline of 5.9%, with agriculture, the building sector, industry and the real estate sector being affected the most.
“Despite the multiple crises that affected the Republic of Moldova in 2022, relative macro-economic stability could be maintained. This way, the national currency remained on positions, the banking system turned out to be resilient and well-capitalized, while the public finance system remained under control. This was possible mainly due to the financial, technical and political support of the development partners,” stated Adrian Lupușor, “Expert-Grup” executive director.
He noted that the economic growth in 2023 is projected at about 4-5% amidst recovery in agriculture, owing to the relatively favorable weather conditions, diminution of the rate of inflation and relaxation of the monetary policy. “Evidently, the security situation in Ukraine and the region and the dynamics of the prices of energy resources remain the main sources of uncertainty and risks that can affect this relatively optimistic forecast,” said Adrian Lupușor.
According to the authors of the publication, the inflation situation will return to normality in 2023-2024 following the deceleration of inflation. The share of salaries grows, while the role of remittances diminishes gradually even if it remains important. In the medium term, the rise in incomes will be supported by the rise in salaries as the firms will have to increase salary costs to attract skilled workers.
In 2023, the maintenance of fiscal sustainability will continue to face the pressure of the regional context that remains very uncertain. A major deficit of 6% of the GDP was planned for achieving the social and economic priorities of the Government in 2023. In this connection, Moldova should maximally take the opportunities deriving from its EU candidate status, which will lead to greater openness to provide financing inside the international community.
