IPN analysis: The Vilnius Summit produced important effects for the fate of Moldova and its people. It offered new chances, but also generated new dangers and reanimated old dangers to the country’s European course. Which of the two post-Vilnius development scenarios wins?

What happened in Vilnius?

By what happened at the Vilnius Summit, Moldova gave one of the first clear and real signals that it is decided to start slowing down the oscillations in the process of looking for itself. In practically all the 22 years of independence, it oscillated between the East and the West, between the Past and the Future, between nationalism and internationalism understood in different ways, between the Moldovan language and the Romanian language... These vacillations with obligatory and regular return to one and the same point do not allow Moldova to lay solid foundations for guaranteeing high living standards for its people.

The reasons for the oscillations are multiple and different, related mainly to the influence of multiple and different foreign political and geopolitical factors under which the local population had been for a long period, the last experience gained in the Soviet area that was hermetically closed and considerably ideologized leaving a powerful imprint of stress.

Thus, during the independence period the Moldovans oscillated between two models of life – the Western one and the Eastern one – depending on the governments that they chose. Moreover, during one term of Communist government, Moldova moved in an ordinary way from the pro-Eastern option to the as categorical pro-Western one. Furthermore, in the same period the Moldovans, despite the low number of people and the small territory and economic potential, had the ambition to speak about an own, Moldovan development model in this world that is powerfully conducted by the phenomenon of globalization.

It seems that in Vilnius, a part of the Moldovans (slightly over half of them) and a part of their political class (more than half of it) stated that they are ready to make a definitive choice in favor of a certain model of life – the Western one. And it seems that they were believed. The initialing of the Association Agreement between Moldova and the EU leaves the impression of agreement.  

From now on, it will count whether the part of society and the politicians who brought the country to the ‘Vilnius’ have the interest, capacity and sincerity to be consistent and how many supporters from among those who do not believe or do not yet believe in the country’s European prospects they manage to attract on their side. The deadline of this test for the current pro-Europeans is November 30, 2014, which is the date of the ordinary parliamentary elections on whose results the irreversibility or failure of the country’s European course will decisively depend. The political forces that want Moldova to follow the Eurasian course have the same term.

What else happened in Vilnius?

The agreement signed in Vilnius officially formulated, for the first time after the period of apprehension through which Moldova went, a viable mechanism for overcoming this state of uncertainty because this mechanism includes all the stages and all the elements needed in a process of deep transformation of society: clear goals, objectives and activities, responsible institutions, confirmed experience, safe control mechanisms, implementation terms and, the most important, sufficient financial resources for ensuring all the aforementioned elements. The Eurasian option can offer Moldovan society almost nothing of these because it itself does not yet have them, while the Eurasian Union does not yet exist and, in order to exist, it will itself need in the future clear goals, objectives and activities, responsible institutions, confirmed experience, safe control mechanisms, implementation terms and, the most important, sufficient financial resources that the promoters of the idea do not have and do not say if, from where and when they will have them. The European Union already has all these things and offers them the Moldovans, and not only them, as a platform for achieving confirmed and verified in time living standards.

But the most noticeable thing that happened in Vilnius is not related to the Association Agreement directly. Before the Summit, the European Commission announced its decision to propose abolishing the visa requirements for Moldovans to the competent institutions. Owing to objective and subjective circumstances, this can happen very soon. This general and unhampered mobility of Moldovans in the European area can and will contribute to the opening of the eyes and minds of the people of this country, including as regards the potential to implement the two options – the European one and the Eurasian one. Let’s remember the not so distant Soviet period, when our impression and even convictions that we live in the richest and freest country of the world faded away immediately when we at least once in life crossed the border not even of France, Germany or America, but of Yugoslavia or even socialist Bulgaria. Those who will like and will understand the utility of free movement in the EU for them and/or the members of thirty families will be less motivated to lose this possibility if they allow forces that can prevent Moldova from following its European course to come to power in the country. The danger is a real one for each of us because Europe is to give now its consent to free movement, but it can refuse to give it if we force it.

What can happen after ‘Vilnius’?

In general, there are two post-‘Vilnius’ scenarios: The signing of the Association Agreement in 2014, by maintaining the country’s European course, or the cancelation of the European course before or after the signing of this agreement. Ukraine for example chose the second scenario on the last 100 meters.

The optimistic scenario

The optimistic scenario can become a reality when the parties of the government coalition and the part of society that supports the European option manage to do certain actions to show that the European option is more important that other options – the Eurasian one or the conservation of the state of affairs – and to convince the other part of society of this. Such actions are also stipulated in the Association Agreement and refer to corruption and justice, and the people should feel changes in these areas as soon as possible. These are things that directly or indirectly affect all the country’s citizens and influence the situation, directly or indirectly, in all the spheres of life. Furthermore, during the remaining year the people from every village should be informed about the implemented projects, including with European funds, by which to improve living conditions.

The fight against corruption and the reformation of justice are difficult objectives, especially in an electoral year. But the novelty of the situation is that the ruling parties are forced by the circumstances to show real results and this is even convenient for them as only the real accomplishments, including and especially in the two areas, enable them to come before the voters in November 2014 and ask for a new term. They do not have another, more powerful electoral trump card. Furthermore, the three parties – the PLDM, PDM and PLR – even if they have different shares in society, are forced to go before the voters together as they separately cannot achieve results in what realty matters for the voters. As polls show, separately they will not win the elections against the main rival – the PCRM. The judges the coming year will be not only the Europeans, who offer money or not, depending on the results, but also the voters, at the end of November 2014. For the same reasons and by the same mechanisms, the ruling parties are obliged to maintain the political stability in the country, at least by the day of the elections.

The pessimistic scenario

The pessimistic scenario can come true only if the political situation is seriously destabilized, without or with bloodshed. The detail about bloodshed is relevant to show that now the country’s European orientation can be changed as a result of large-scale political crises, not any type of crisis. But this only condition has so many possible sources that some of the experts say the pessimistic scenario is 50% or even more possible. The sources of danger can be both internal and external, in terms of the country’s territory and in relation to the Pro-European Coalition.

In order to realize the dangers that may come from the first category of sources, we can remember the day of March 2, 1992, when Moldova joined the United Nations Organization. Then namely this step confirmed Moldova’s status of independent country. The starting of the armed conflict on the Nistru namely that day was a well-planned act to show the constitutional authorities and the international community that the matter concerning Moldova’s independence is decided not only in Chisinau. The consequences of that day continue to infringe on the country’s independence and territorial. In Vilnius, Moldova, for the first time in its history, officially applied for the status of independent and European state and obtained it by the agreement initialed in Vilnius.

We must thank the Moldovan opposition, represented especially by the PCRM, for not planning for November 29, 2013 a scenario similar to that of March 2, 1992. It may have had such a scenario, but refused to apply it. Such a variant was rumored following the quick transfer of the protests that involved many people from near the Government Building to the head office of the EU Delegation in Chisinau. The new place for protests is very narrow and is not appropriate for keeping the situation under control, in terms of public order, but very favorable for all kinds of provocations with disastrous effects. The gratitude should be considerable in the wake of the violent events that happened in Ukraine the last few days.

The dangers from the second category that can generate considerable political crises can come from outside or even from inside the government coalition. They will all be aimed at dismembering the coalition and/or each of its components. Different national and foreign players will use various technologies in a move to reanimate belligerent states of spirit between the three components of the coalition and to fuel the spirits of competition between the leaders of the three parties, including inside the parties. Real signs already exist inside and outside the coalition. The promoters of these scenarios may declare themselves pro-European and in favor of the European integration. It is yet the effect that counts. A possible large-scale political crisis will automatically lead to the failure of the European course and the PCRM will enjoy an electoral advantage.

The Vilnius Summit recognized the status of European country of the Republic of Moldova, but we must keep this status valid at least until the Riga Summit of 2015. 

Valeriu Vasilică, IPN