On its 27th independence anniversary, the Moldovan statehood is anguished, as its democracy and its integration into the European Union are. Even if the country’s independence in 2018 is stronger than 20 years ago, this is poorer than it was at the start of the government of the forces associated with the EU in 2009, when the Moldova – EU relations became more intense and even produced clear benefits for Moldova. The initial expectations were that the greater European integration will unconditionally help build a more robust state. In reality, behind the European rhetoric, the state institutions were transformed into political instruments for promoting particular narrow interests. Moreover, society became more conspicuously polarized geopolitically and this polarization is for now unsurmountable. This distracts attention from the reform priorities that can either hasten or delay the process of coming closer to the European political, economic and social model.

To measure the quality of Moldovan statehood and, respectively, how free the country is in determining the own will, it is essential to observe the way in which its democracy evolved. Namely the quality of democratic institutions makes the country’s independence be more powerful or, on the contrary, more fragile in relation to the foreign players whose activity in the region has a destructive connotation.

As the recent experience shows, the Russian (non-)state players turned out to be the most able ones in exploiting Moldova’s weaknesses. In the judicial sector, these managed to engage the Moldovan judges in the Russian money laundering scheme. The domestic and foreign policy is distorted by the presidency of Igor Dodon, who devoted his first year of presidency to the ramification of the informal relations with the circle of persons close to Vladimir Putin (IPN, April 23, 2018). In the field of security, the Russian players use the separatist region to keep Moldova anchored in the Russian influence (debts for gas, Transnistrian settlement process), while some of the sectors of the Moldovan economy didn’t stop shaking owing to the commercial bans imposed by Russia after  2013. In such regional circumstances, the European integration is a stabilizing factor for the statehood of Moldova and other countries of the region, based first of all on the reformation of the functioning mechanisms of the economy and the rule of law. But the positive influence of this is affected by the political monopoly of the political forces associated with the capture of state institutions and Russia’s infinite wish to conserve its geopolitical position.

If the political class had promoted the European integration as a platform for modernizing the state, Moldova’s statehood would have inevitably become stronger. Instead, the European course is exploited by the government with the aim of monetization that resulted in the permanent attraction of financial assistance for supplementing the public finances in chronic deficit. Also, the orientation to the EU is exploited to obtain or increase the political value of parties in the citizens‘ electoral algorithms. However, as long Moldova is anchored in the Association Agreement with the EU that fully took effect in July 2016, the resuscitation of reforms is always possible, even if this will immediately necessitate the renewal of the system of political parties with entities that are moved strictly by national interests.

Dialogue with EU under pressure of artificiality

The EU-Moldova relationship went through a broad maturing process that was yet unilateral, as the unfavorable experiences related to the freezing of the EU budget support in 2015 and the postponement of the EU macro-financial assistance in July 2018 show. More exactly, the principledness of Brussels increased considerably and is based on output and constant verification of progress. Simultaneously, the government of Moldova has been focused a lot on the technical fulfilment of conditions even if this implies an enormous dose of artificiality.

After 27 years of independence, the Moldovan governments’ artificial approach to the European integration process led to the stealing of US$ 1 billion from the banking system and the indebtedness of the population with 13.34  billion lei over the next 25 years. Currently, the same type of attitude characterizes the fulfillment by the Moldovan government managed by the PDM of the technical conditions and political preconditions for obtaining €100 million in macro-financial assistance (IPN, July 9, 2018). The devotion to artificiality in relation to the EU can be also deduced from the insistence of the government (PDM leader Vladimir Plahotniuc) on the fact that all the criteria for disbursing the first tranche of the macro-financial assistance (ten of the total 28) were met, inclining several of the conditions intended for the second tranche (IPN, August 23, 2018).

The emphasis on artificiality creates the perception of acceleration of reforms, but by decreasing their quality and, respectively, their durability. So far, the most artificial changes took place in justice, while the most profound ones were witnesses in the technical sectors where the interests of the political forces are minor.

What disadvantages the future of the European integration of Moldova is the fact that, on the one hand, the ruling Democratic Party, being motivated to keep power, prefers the EU to treat the reforms in a simplistic form. On the other hand, the Party of Socialists, which is supported by President Igor Dodon and is the most popular one with voters, aims to seize power after the elections of February 2019 and already signaled its apathy in some of the reforms (for example, the anti-discrimination policies). The other important parties treat the reforms as a remedy against the oligarchic interests and corruption. In this regard, the struggle against corruption, de-politicization of institutions or improvement of the electoral legislation were turned into demands of the antigovernment protests coordinated by the Party “Platform Dignity and Truth” and the Party “Action and Solidarity”. Consequently, the prospects of the European integration will be unfavorable for Moldova if the government is concentrated in the hands of the Democrats, the Socialists or in a duo of them.

Exploitation of European course

Besides the artificiality of the European integration on which the ruling parties still count, the attempt to exploit the affiliation with the EU for political purposes is also a vice typical of them. This evidently affects the pace of the reforms agreed with and supported by the European institutions, which become constrained and subordinated to electoral cycles.

For these reasons, some of the reforms have a high probability of being reversed, while others are adjusted to the internal political agenda of the ruling party. Consequently, the European course in 2009-2018 was intended massively for political publicity and exposure. This explains the zeal for “constitutionalizing” the European course shown by the current government. If this objective is achieved, the Democratic Party will manage to place itself above any other Western-leaning party, confiscating the pro-European rhetoric (IPN, December 18, 2017). At the same time, this could minimize the electoral attractiveness of other parties that will count exclusively on the association with the EU. The final result can be yet dangerous for the European course as this will be turned from a “harsh competitor” into an “enemy” of the supporters of the pro-Russian orientation and of those who support a multi-vector foreign policy. In fact, this will cause deeper polarization that is destructive for the social cohesion and the state-citizen relationship and will inevitably affect the solidity of the Moldovan statehood.

The focus on the rapprochement with the EU, not on the Machiavellian exploitation of this is what characterizes civil society. Owing to the damaged image of the institutions of the polarized state and to the expertize and credibility of the nongovernmental sector, the latter is advantaged and advantages the European integration process. Being a source of credible information domestically and abroad, with a high capacity of signaling departures and of mobilizing the foreign partners, civil society uses the European integration to propel the reforms needed to revitalize the rule of law and to restore the mechanism of checks and balances.

The major risk to the sustainability of the European course, caused by the profoundly utilitarian policy of the rulers in relation to the EU, is that the same behavior can spread among the Moldovans. That’s why any attempt to exploit the dialogue with the EU should be converted into authentic wishes to borrow and materialize examples of transformation inspired and encouraged by the EU during its enlargement to the East and later through the Eastern Partnership. 

Instead of conclusion…

During the 27 years of independence, the relationship with the EU has been broadly used as a source for exploiting the expectations of the pauperized and dispersed voters who were looking for solutions imported from outside, from more efficiently governed regions.

Even if reforms aimed at increasing transparency and responsibility in the activity of state institutions are done through the European integration, their number, profoundness and durability are limited by the narrow interests of the ruling parties. For now the European integration of Moldova looks impotent before the oligarchic groups that use the rapprochement with the EU to strengthen their influence on the political decision-making process and to the detriment of the maximization of the real and long-term benefits for the citizens.

The future development trajectory of Moldova is very unsafe and the uncertainty is generated mainly by the legitimacy crisis of the government and the serious distortion of the political competition to the detriment of the extraparliamentary opposition. The availability of the support provided by the EU institutions is now one of the safest stability factors for Moldova even if the European project is now going through the own existential crises.