The triggering of a humanitarian crisis on the left bank of the Nistru by stopping the delivery of natural gas will be used by Russia to put pressure on the official Chisinau, foreign policy pundit Mihai Isac stated in a public debate entitled “Gas for the Transnistrian region as a national security issue”. According to him, the constitutional authorities of the Republic of Moldova must prepare a plan for the reintegration of the country, as European leaders will not accept the Cyprus scenario for accession to the European Union.
Mihai Isac noted that by stopping the supply of natural gas to the left bank of the Nistru, Russia is sending signals that it is no longer willing to subsidize the region. Moscow will also try to generate tensions between Chisinau, Tiraspol and Kiev.
"The Russian Federation seeks to conquer the Republic of Moldova electorally, which it failed to do with weapons in the 1990s during the illegal invasion launched against the Republic of Moldova as an independent state. Any humanitarian crisis artificially created by the Russian Federation is meant to put pressure on the Republic of Moldova, to dynamite the relations between Chisinau and Kiev. Any energy and humanitarian crisis in the region under Russian military occupation will have immediate repercussions in the Republic of Moldova. In the Republic of Moldova, there is an impressive number of Ukrainian refugee citizens. We expect that with the start of winter, the number of refugees will increase. Chisinau is not only a gateway to and from Ukraine, but is also a base for many Ukrainian families," said foreign policy analyst Mihai Isac.
According to the expert, the constitutional authorities in Chisinau should insist on the peaceful settlement of the Transnistrian conflict by co-opting international partners into talks. The leaders in Tiraspol can be persuaded by the international community to act in the interests of the citizens living on both banks of the Nistru.
"Never since the Republic of Moldova became an independent state has there been such an openness on the part of foreign partners to support the country. What is happening in the Transnistrian region has only one goal, namely to dynamite our fragile democracy. The Republic of Moldova needs a reintegration plan. Let's not forget that, with the implementation of the new Customs Code on the entire territory of the Republic of Moldova, we witnessed protests in Tiraspol. Although the large companies in the Transnistrian region have complied with the provisions, it is clear that there is media pressure. I believe that Chisinau should explore the co-optation of strategic partners to exercise particular steps, including through personal pressure on some of the members of the Tiraspol elite in order to persuade them of the need to start political discussions. The region's re-inclusion in the common political space, not only economically, will be welcomed by the partners," explained Mihai Isac.
He also said that a possible humanitarian crisis on the left bank of the Nistru makes the authorities in Chisinau to prepare a plan for the reunification of the country. The Cypriot model for Moldova's accession to the European Union is impossible. Cyprus became a member of the EU in 2004, despite the territorial division between the southern part (controlled by the internationally recognized government) and the northern part (the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, not internationally recognized and supported by Turkey).
"As regards the entry of the Republic of Moldova into the European Union, those in Brussels will no longer accept the Cypriot scenario. It should be clear that a Northern Cyprus in Transnistria will not be accepted either by Ukraine or by the European Union. This type of arranged humanitarian crises orchestrated by Russia, which we had seen before, for example, in Syria, shows us one thing: Russia, although it saves the political elites, nevertheless sacrifices a large part of the population. There have been three decades during which nothing has been done on political ground, but we must understand that Russia will use the signs of a humanitarian crisis to put pressure on Chisinau, the EU and Ukraine," pointed out Mihai Isac.
The public debate entitled "Gas for the Transnistrian region as a national security issue" was staged as part of the series of debates "Developing political culture through public debates". IPN Agency implements this project with support from the German Hanns Seidel Foundation.
